119-HR-398 Data-Driven Journalist Impact Analysis

Summary

What the bill does and why it matters

• Authorizes the Department of the Interior (DOI) to require applicants for, or holders of, geothermal leases to reimburse “reasonable” administrative costs for processing applications (e.g., drilling permits, utilization and construction approvals) and for inspections/monitoring, through 9/30/2032; allows reductions for hardship or to promote geothermal use; requires a five‑year implementation report. [1]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — H.R.398 — 119th Congress: Geothermal Cost-…
• Collections are credited as discretionary offsetting collections and usable only to the extent provided in appropriations acts—so spending those fees depends on appropriators. [1]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — H.R.398 — 119th Congress: Geothermal Cost-…
• A substantially similar 118th‑Congress bill drew a CBO estimate of negligible net budget effect because fees collected would be spent shortly thereafter; H.R. 398 is materially the same in structure. [2]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — House Report 118-670: Geothermal Cost-Reco…

Economic Effects

Direct costs to developers vs. potential gains from faster processing and improved oversight

• Project soft costs: Developers would pay new/expanded fees covering application processing (e.g., geothermal drilling permits) and inspections. The Secretary may reduce fees for hardship or to promote geothermal uptake, tempering impacts on small or first‑of‑a‑kind projects. [1]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — H.R.398 — 119th Congress: Geothermal Cost-…
• Precedent: DOI already recovers processing/monitoring costs for other right‑of‑way authorizations (fee categories tied to staff hours), indicating an administrative pathway to implement similar schedules for geothermal. [3]Legal Information Institute (Cornell Law) — 43 CFR 2885.24 — Cost recovery fees…
• Budget neutrality risk: GAO has warned that if cost‑recovery receipts simply offset appropriations, field offices may not gain capacity; in past DOI programs, fee receipts were sometimes paired with appropriation reductions. [4]U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) — GAO-05-418 — Oil and Gas Developm…
• Processing timelines: Evidence is mixed that fees alone shorten permitting because much elapsed time is driven by NEPA and interagency review. GAO finds renewable project permitting often spans 1–4 years; BLM’s push to digitize APDs cut typical oil‑and‑gas processing targets to ~115 days from ~220, showing IT/process changes matter more than fee levels per se. [5]U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) — GAO-13-189 — Renewable Energy: Ag…[6]Bureau of Land Management — BLM finalizes move to 100% e‑filing of drilling per…
• Market context: Non‑technical barriers (permitting cost/timelines, coordination) are material for geothermal bankability; fee‑funded staffing could reduce timeline uncertainty and financing carry if appropriations let BLM spend the receipts. [7]Pacific Northwest National Laboratory — Nontechnical Barriers to Geothermal Dev…
• Scale today: BLM manages 800+ geothermal leases, with 50+ producing that supply ~1.6 GW and >40% of U.S. geothermal capacity—so administrative efficiency on public lands affects a sizable share of the market. [8]Bureau of Land Management — BLM seeks review on public lands nominated for geot…
• Macro‑budget impact: Prior CBO scoring of the 118th‑Congress analog found negligible net effect on federal outlays over 10 years. Expect similar here absent structural changes. [2]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — House Report 118-670: Geothermal Cost-Reco…

Sources as cited above. Capacity/leasing figures reflect recent BLM statements; permitting spans reflect GAO case reviews across renewables; APD figures illustrate process effects in a related fluid‑minerals program, not geothermal per se. [8]Bureau of Land Management — BLM seeks review on public lands nominated for geot…[5]U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) — GAO-13-189 — Renewable Energy: Ag…[6]Bureau of Land Management — BLM finalizes move to 100% e‑filing of drilling per…

Social Effects

Distributional impacts across developers, workers, and host communities

• Small developers and innovators: Upfront fees can weigh more heavily on thinly capitalized firms; the bill’s hardship/“promote greatest use” reductions could mitigate this if applied transparently. [1]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — H.R.398 — 119th Congress: Geothermal Cost-…
• Workforce and local economies: DOI has previously reported thousands of geothermal‑related jobs and multi‑billion‑dollar economic contributions, with revenues shared 50% to states and 25% to counties—localities may benefit indirectly if fee‑funded staffing accelerates projects. [9]Web search · turn 6 #1[8]Bureau of Land Management — BLM seeks review on public lands nominated for geot…
• Tribal and rural communities: Many geothermal resources are in the rural West; permitting coordination burdens identified by DOE/PNNL are salient for smaller jurisdictions—predictability in timelines may reduce developer‑community friction. [7]Pacific Northwest National Laboratory — Nontechnical Barriers to Geothermal Dev…

Environmental Effects

Inspection resources vs. project‑level externalities

• Inspection/monitoring: Allowing reimbursement for field inspections and environmental monitoring can strengthen compliance (e.g., well construction, plugging, site reclamation) if receipts are appropriated back to BLM’s program. [1]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — H.R.398 — 119th Congress: Geothermal Cost-…
• Air emissions: Geothermal power plants have very low direct air emissions compared with fossil generation; EIA notes ~99% lower CO2 and ~97% lower SOx than same‑size fossil plants, and DOE modeling shows large avoided criteria and greenhouse emissions with wider deployment. [10]U.S. Energy Information Administration — EIA: Geothermal energy and the environ…[11]U.S. Department of Energy — DOE Geothermal Environmental Analysis — air, water,…
• Water use: DOE’s GeoVision analysis indicates geothermal could supply a materially larger share of generation while accounting for a small fraction of power‑sector water withdrawals, depending on cooling technology. [11]U.S. Department of Energy — DOE Geothermal Environmental Analysis — air, water,…
• Induced seismicity: Fluid injection and production can trigger micro‑ to small‑magnitude events; DOE/USGS guidance and protocols exist to assess and manage risk at sites such as The Geysers. Enhanced inspections and monitoring budgets can help enforce mitigations. [12]U.S. Department of Energy — DOE releases updated Induced Seismicity Protocol (c…[13]U.S. Geological Survey — USGS: Induced Seismicity Mechanism at The Geysers, Cal…

Temporal Analysis

What changes when—and what depends on implementation

1. Near term (enactment–FY2027): DOI would need to set fee schedules and workflows; developers see higher application/inspection charges immediately, partially offset by case‑by‑case reductions. Actual staffing gains hinge on appropriations language that allows spending of collections. [1]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — H.R.398 — 119th Congress: Geothermal Cost-…
2. Mid term (FY2028–2032): If appropriators consistently allow fee use, BLM could add capacity (contracting, term FTEs) to reduce queues and improve field oversight; if not, developers pay more without service gains. CBO’s analogous estimate implies negligible net federal budget impact either way. [2]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — House Report 118-670: Geothermal Cost-Reco…
3. Long term (beyond 2032): Sunset compels evaluation; if timelines improve and environmental performance is strong, Congress could reauthorize with refinements. Larger deployment potential (e.g., GeoVision scenarios) depends on broader non‑technical and technological advances beyond this bill. [14]U.S. Department of Energy — GeoVision (DOE Geothermal Technologies Office) — Ov…

Unintended Consequences and Risks

Secondary effects to watch

• Permitting expectations gap: GAO notes that NEPA and interagency review—not fee levels—drive much elapsed time; absent process reforms, fees may not accelerate approvals. [5]U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) — GAO-13-189 — Renewable Energy: Ag…
• Small‑entity burden: Even if overall impacts are modest at utility scale, fee schedules can deter smaller or innovative pilots unless hardship provisions are applied predictably. [7]Pacific Northwest National Laboratory — Nontechnical Barriers to Geothermal Dev…
• Compliance cost uptick: More inspections can raise operator compliance costs; environmental benefits likely outweigh costs but merit tracking in DOI’s five‑year report. [1]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — H.R.398 — 119th Congress: Geothermal Cost-…

Assessment

Bottom‑line analytic judgment

Neutral. The bill is a process tool: it can improve throughput and oversight if appropriations let DOI spend the receipts; otherwise it mainly shifts administrative costs to applicants. Environmental performance likely benefits from funded inspections; macro‑budget effects are negligible; market impacts are modest relative to project economics and broader non‑technical barriers. [1]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — H.R.398 — 119th Congress: Geothermal Cost-…[2]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — House Report 118-670: Geothermal Cost-Reco…[7]Pacific Northwest National Laboratory — Nontechnical Barriers to Geothermal Dev…

Sourcing (selected)

Key references used in this assessment

• Congress.gov bill summary and actions for H.R. 398 (119th). [1]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — H.R.398 — 119th Congress: Geothermal Cost-…
• House Report 118‑670 (prior Congress analog) incl. CBO estimate methodology. [2]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — House Report 118-670: Geothermal Cost-Reco…
• BLM program statistics on geothermal leases/capacity and revenue sharing. [8]Bureau of Land Management — BLM seeks review on public lands nominated for geot…
• DOE GeoVision overview and deployment impacts; DOE Environmental Analysis (air, water, induced seismicity). [14]U.S. Department of Energy — GeoVision (DOE Geothermal Technologies Office) — Ov…[11]U.S. Department of Energy — DOE Geothermal Environmental Analysis — air, water,…
• EIA explainer on geothermal plant emissions. [10]U.S. Energy Information Administration — EIA: Geothermal energy and the environ…
• GAO on permitting timelines and fee/appropriation offsets; BLM APD e‑filing benchmark. [5]U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) — GAO-13-189 — Renewable Energy: Ag…[4]U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) — GAO-05-418 — Oil and Gas Developm…[6]Bureau of Land Management — BLM finalizes move to 100% e‑filing of drilling per…
• CFR precedent for DOI cost‑recovery schedules (ROW/pipelines). [3]Legal Information Institute (Cornell Law) — 43 CFR 2885.24 — Cost recovery fees…