119-S-1376 Investigative Journalist Impact Analysis

Summary

What the bill does now: S.1376 directs the Secretary of Agriculture (USDA Forest Service) to complete, within one year of enactment, a feasibility study on designating the Benton MacKaye Trail (BMT) as a National Scenic Trail. It does not itself confer designation or new land restrictions. [1]Congress.gov / Library of Congress — Text - S.1376 - 119th Congress (2025-2026)…

Headline impacts: In the short term, effects are mainly administrative—agency staff time, data collection, and consultation. If Congress later designates the BMT, evidence from national outdoor‑recreation and park economies suggests local spending and jobs could rise, but agencies would face added maintenance, visitor‑use management, and resource‑protection obligations—areas already challenged by deferred maintenance backlogs. [3]U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis — Outdoor Recreation Satellite Account, U.S. a…[5]U.S. National Park Service — Visitors to Great Smoky Mountains National Park sp…[4]U.S. Government Accountability Office — Deferred Maintenance: Agencies Generall…

Economic Effects

• Study phase (this bill): Minimal direct market effects; primary cost is federal staff time to scope routes, consult partners, and prepare the report (no CBO estimate posted as of October 28, 2025). Latest official actions show the bill ordered reported favorably on October 21, 2025. [2]Congress.gov / Library of Congress — All Actions - S.1376 (119th): Benton MacKa…
• Potential designation phase (if pursued later): National outdoor recreation value added was 2.3% of U.S. GDP in 2023, supporting 5.0 million jobs—indicating room for incremental gains in gateway communities if the trail attracts more visitors. [3]U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis — Outdoor Recreation Satellite Account, U.S. a…[6]BEA (Survey of Current Business) — Outdoor Recreation Statistics for 2023 (Surv…
• Local spillovers near the BMT’s northern end: Great Smoky Mountains NP visitors spent more than $2 billion in nearby communities in 2024, supporting ~33,700 jobs—illustrating the scale of recreation‑driven economies in the immediate region. [5]U.S. National Park Service — Visitors to Great Smoky Mountains National Park sp…
• Distributional effects: Towns along the BMT corridor (GA–TN–NC) may see increased demand for lodging, food, outfitters, and transport during peak seasons; however, agency capacity to maintain access (roads, trailheads) is a binding constraint. USGS/USFS literature and agency strategies emphasize that sustainable trail design and upkeep are prerequisites for capturing benefits without degrading resources. [7]U.S. Geological Survey / Journal of Environmental Management — Assessing the in…[8]U.S. Forest Service — USFS National Strategy for a Sustainable Trail System
• Fiscal/operational risk: Federal land managers carry sizable deferred maintenance backlogs—reducing headroom to absorb new obligations without dedicated funding. GAO and DOI report continued pressure on maintenance outlays despite the Great American Outdoors Act. [4]U.S. Government Accountability Office — Deferred Maintenance: Agencies Generall…[9]U.S. Department of the Interior — Deferred Maintenance and Repair (DM&R) — Depa…

Social Effects

• Access and health: Parks, trails, and greenways are linked to higher physical activity and mental‑health benefits when infrastructure is paired with programming and safe access. Designation could elevate awareness and use if paired with local access planning. [10]HHS ODPHP / Community Preventive Services Task Force — Park, Trail, and Greenwa…[11]Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — Parks, Trails, and Health — CDC
• Visitor experience and safety: The Smokies—the BMT’s largest unit—already manages congestion, parking overflow, and resource wear; any use increase on adjacent trails would need visitor‑use management, education, and enforcement capacity. [12]U.S. National Park Service — Visitor Experience Stewardship — Great Smoky Mount…
• Equity and consultation: The National Trails System Act requires consultation with affected agencies and cooperation with state, local, and private stakeholders during feasibility studies—creating an avenue to include rural communities and tribal governments in scoping access and impacts. [13]Legal Information Institute (Cornell Law School) — 16 U.S.C. § 1244 — National…
• Public safety demand: Increased backcountry use correlates with search‑and‑rescue and emergency response needs in the Smokies’ rugged terrain, as reflected in recurring National Guard hoist rescues—implying potential budget/staffing implications for local and state partners. [14]U.S. Army / Tennessee National Guard — Tennessee National Guard rescues Great S…

Environmental Effects

• Baseline: The BMT is an existing ~287‑mile non‑motorized trail largely on federal lands (USFS and NPS), including wilderness segments and a long traverse of Great Smoky Mountains NP. This reduces the need for new ground disturbance but concentrates use on sensitive backcountry corridors. [15]U.S. Forest Service — Benton MacKaye Trail in Tennessee — Cherokee National For…[16]Benton MacKaye Trail Association — Discover the Trail — Vital Trail Information…
• Soils/vegetation: Recreation‑ecology studies find unmanaged trail grades, alignments, and drainage drive soil loss and vegetation damage; sustainable design/maintenance can mitigate these effects. [7]U.S. Geological Survey / Journal of Environmental Management — Assessing the in…
• Biota/invasives: The Smokies host exceptional biodiversity but face invasive plants and forest pests; higher use can increase vectors for seed spread and disturbance near trails unless prevention and rapid response are funded. [17]U.S. National Park Service — Park Statistics — Great Smoky Mountains National P…[18]U.S. National Park Service — Non‑native species — Great Smoky Mountains Nationa…
• Fire risk: Human activity substantially expands wildfire ignitions and seasonality in the U.S.; any increase in dispersed backcountry use elevates accidental‑ignition risk, underscoring the need for fire‑safe camping and enforcement. [19]PNAS via PubMed (NIH) — Human‑started wildfires expand the fire niche across th…
• Wilderness stewardship constraints: In designated wilderness, motorized equipment and mechanical transport are generally prohibited; crosscut saws and stock support add time and labor to clear storm‑downed trees—raising the per‑mile cost of keeping routes open. [20]Legal Information Institute (Cornell Law School) — 36 CFR §293.6 — Wilderness r…[21]U.S. Forest Service — Making the cut — crosscut saws and wilderness maintenance

Temporal Analysis

Unintended Consequences (Risks and Trade‑offs)

• Land and easements: Although ~95% of the BMT is already on public lands, completing continuous, permanent right‑of‑way could require easements or limited acquisitions on remaining segments; NTSA provides acquisition tools and sets limits on condemnation and acreage. Early, transparent outreach to landowners is essential. [16]Benton MacKaye Trail Association — Discover the Trail — Vital Trail Information…[22]Legal Information Institute (Cornell Law School) — 16 U.S.C. § 1246 — Administr…
• Budget exposure: Deferred maintenance backlogs and workforce limits mean any added miles formally designated could outpace base funding absent dedicated appropriations or partner commitments. [4]U.S. Government Accountability Office — Deferred Maintenance: Agencies Generall…
• Operational constraints: Wilderness tool restrictions and backcountry logistics increase unit costs for storm recovery and routine clearance, potentially lengthening closure durations after severe weather. [20]Legal Information Institute (Cornell Law School) — 36 CFR §293.6 — Wilderness r…

Assessment

Overall stance: Neutral. S.1376 is a process bill with limited immediate footprint. If it leads to designation, the balance of evidence points to modest economic upside for rural communities contingent on sustained investment in access and stewardship, alongside real management costs and ecological risks that require proactive planning (carrying capacity, sustainable design, invasive species prevention, and fire‑safe practices). [3]U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis — Outdoor Recreation Satellite Account, U.S. a…[5]U.S. National Park Service — Visitors to Great Smoky Mountains National Park sp…[7]U.S. Geological Survey / Journal of Environmental Management — Assessing the in…[4]U.S. Government Accountability Office — Deferred Maintenance: Agencies Generall…

Key Metrics

Sources: BMTA; BEA 2023 ORSA; NPS Visitor Spending Effects and park statistics. [16]Benton MacKaye Trail Association — Discover the Trail — Vital Trail Information…[3]U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis — Outdoor Recreation Satellite Account, U.S. a…[5]U.S. National Park Service — Visitors to Great Smoky Mountains National Park sp…[17]U.S. National Park Service — Park Statistics — Great Smoky Mountains National P…

Sourcing (selected)

• Bill text and status: Congress.gov bill text and actions. [1]Congress.gov / Library of Congress — Text - S.1376 - 119th Congress (2025-2026)…[2]Congress.gov / Library of Congress — All Actions - S.1376 (119th): Benton MacKa…
• Trail facts: BMTA and USFS Cherokee NF pages. [16]Benton MacKaye Trail Association — Discover the Trail — Vital Trail Information…[15]U.S. Forest Service — Benton MacKaye Trail in Tennessee — Cherokee National For…
• Economic baselines: BEA Outdoor Recreation Satellite Account (2023); NPS 2024 Visitor Spending Effects for Great Smoky Mountains NP. [3]U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis — Outdoor Recreation Satellite Account, U.S. a…[6]BEA (Survey of Current Business) — Outdoor Recreation Statistics for 2023 (Surv…[5]U.S. National Park Service — Visitors to Great Smoky Mountains National Park sp…
• Maintenance capacity: GAO review of deferred maintenance and DOI DM&R overview; USFS National Trail Strategy. [4]U.S. Government Accountability Office — Deferred Maintenance: Agencies Generall…[9]U.S. Department of the Interior — Deferred Maintenance and Repair (DM&R) — Depa…[8]U.S. Forest Service — USFS National Strategy for a Sustainable Trail System
• Environmental/visitor‑use evidence: USGS recreation‑ecology study; NPS Visitor Experience Stewardship (Smokies); NPS invasive species; wildfire ignitions (PNAS, 2017). [7]U.S. Geological Survey / Journal of Environmental Management — Assessing the in…[12]U.S. National Park Service — Visitor Experience Stewardship — Great Smoky Mount…[18]U.S. National Park Service — Non‑native species — Great Smoky Mountains Nationa…[19]PNAS via PubMed (NIH) — Human‑started wildfires expand the fire niche across th…