119-HJRES-104 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

Breakdown: vote alignment and caucus posture

Bottom line: the measure already cleared both chambers largely on party lines; remaining step is presentment. [2]U.S. Senate Periodical Press Gallery — U.S. Senate Periodical Press Gallery — O…

• House: on September 3, 2025, H.J.Res.104 passed 211–208. Party breakdown: Republicans 211–1–7 (yea–nay–NV), Democrats 0–207–5. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R‑PA) was the lone GOP “no.” [1]Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives — House Clerk Roll Call 224…
• Senate: on October 8, 2025, the Senate passed H.J.Res.104, 52–47, using the Congressional Review Act’s expedited procedures (nondebatable motion to proceed; up to 10 hours of debate; no amendments). Sen. Ted Cruz did not vote. [2]U.S. Senate Periodical Press Gallery — U.S. Senate Periodical Press Gallery — O…[4]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS R43992 — The Congressiona…[5]U.S. Senate Periodical Press Gallery — U.S. Senate Daily Press — Wednesday, Oct…
• Institutional alignment: Republicans hold a 53–47 Senate majority (Thune as Majority Leader; Barrasso as Whip), and a narrow House majority with Mike Johnson as Speaker and Steve Scalise as Majority Leader. [6]U.S. Senate Periodical Press Gallery — Senate Party Division, 119th Congress (P…[7]Senate Republican Conference — Senate GOP Leadership for the 119th Congress[8]Associated Press — AP — 119th Congress opens: Mike Johnson reelected Speaker[9]House Majority Leader Office — House Majority Leader Steve Scalise — reelected…
• Issue coalition signals: Montana’s delegation led the push; GOP governors and coal‑country interests publicly backed disapproval, while environmental groups (Earthjustice, Sierra Club) opposed it. [10]Office of Sen. Steve Daines — Sen. Daines — Introduces bicameral Miles City CRA…[11]Office of Gov. Greg Gianforte — Montana Governor — Letter urging Congress to re…[12]Earthjustice — Earthjustice — Opposes CRA to reopen PRB coal leasing (press sta…[13]Sierra Club — Sierra Club — Legal intervention defending PRB coal‑leasing decis…
• Substance at issue: BLM’s Miles City Record of Decision/Approved RMP Amendment (signed Nov 20, 2024) made large areas unavailable for new federal coal leasing in the planning area, triggering intense state/industry pushback. [14]Federal Register — Federal Register notice — Miles City ROD/RMPA (Nov. 27, 2024)[15]Bureau of Land Management — BLM press — Releases ROD and amendment for Miles Ci…

Key legislators and pivotal dynamics

At this point the question is not chamber passage but presentment; however, the whip dynamics that delivered passage illuminate the coalition and any residual exposure for future CRA fights.

• House cross‑pressure: Fitzpatrick (R‑PA) voted no; all Democrats voted no. This underscores a near‑perfect party‑line alignment with only one GOP defection. [1]Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives — House Clerk Roll Call 224…
• Montana bloc as drivers: Sen. Steve Daines and Sen. Tim Sheehy led the CRA effort; the companion Senate vehicle was placed on the calendar and ENR was discharged by petition per CRA. [10]Office of Sen. Steve Daines — Sen. Daines — Introduces bicameral Miles City CRA…[16]Web search · turn 10 #6
• Committee leverage: Senate ENR is chaired by Mike Lee; House Natural Resources is chaired by Bruce Westerman. Their jurisdictions over BLM/public lands ensured friendly gates at both stages. [17]Office of Sen. Mike Lee — Sen. Mike Lee — Announcement: Chairing Senate Energy…[18]House Committee on Natural Resources (Majority) — House Natural Resources — Cha…
• Floor control: Senate GOP leadership (Thune/Barrasso) and House GOP leadership (Speaker Johnson/Majority Leader Scalise) backed floor time and sequencing amid shutdown fights, prioritizing CRA vehicles where a simple majority suffices. [7]Senate Republican Conference — Senate GOP Leadership for the 119th Congress[8]Associated Press — AP — 119th Congress opens: Mike Johnson reelected Speaker[9]House Majority Leader Office — House Majority Leader Steve Scalise — reelected…

Leadership positions and procedural leverage

Leadership aligned the institutions and exploited CRA mechanics to avoid a 60‑vote Senate threshold.

• Senate GOP control and agenda: Republicans (53–47) with Thune as Majority Leader and Barrasso as Whip prioritized CRA disapprovals early and used the statute’s non‑filibusterable path (motion to proceed nondebatable; up to 10 hours debate; no amendments). [6]U.S. Senate Periodical Press Gallery — Senate Party Division, 119th Congress (P…[7]Senate Republican Conference — Senate GOP Leadership for the 119th Congress[4]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS R43992 — The Congressiona…
• Committee posture: ENR Chair Mike Lee and Ranking Member Martin Heinrich publicly organized subcommittee work and scheduling; the chamber later discharged ENR on the Miles City CRA under 5 U.S.C. 802(c). [19]Web search · turn 5 #0[16]Web search · turn 10 #6
• House posture: Speaker Mike Johnson’s floor decisions and Majority Leader Scalise’s calendar management moved H.J.Res.104 promptly after GAO confirmed the ROD/RMPA is a CRA‑covered rule and after the White House issued a supportive SAP. [8]Associated Press — AP — 119th Congress opens: Mike Johnson reelected Speaker[20]Web search · turn 6 #2[21]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO Decision B‑337163 — CRA applicabili…[3]American Presidency Project (UCSB) — Statement of Administration Policy — H.J.R…
• White House: The Administration issued a Statement of Administration Policy strongly supporting H.J.Res.104, signaling signature upon presentment. [3]American Presidency Project (UCSB) — Statement of Administration Policy — H.J.R…
• Triggering authority: GAO’s June 25, 2025 legal decision concluded the Miles City RMPA is a CRA “rule,” and the opinion was printed in the Congressional Record the next day—opening a clean CRA clock even absent agency submission. [21]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO Decision B‑337163 — CRA applicabili…[22]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — Congressional Record — Printing of GAO opi…

Institutional context and hurdles

CRA changes the math: a simple majority in the Senate, limited debate, and a lookback window spanning late‑term rules.

1. CRA floor mechanics: motion to proceed simple‑majority, up to 10 hours debate, no amendments, simple‑majority final passage; committee discharge available after 20 calendar days with 30 signatures. [4]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS R43992 — The Congressiona…[23]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS IF10023 — The CRA: A Brie…
2. Lookback: rules finalized late in the prior Congress roll into the new Congress’s review window; for 2024, CRS flagged an August‑timeframe lookback with CRA clocks restarting on the 15th session/legislative day. [24]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS IF12708 — CRA Lookback Me…
3. Effect of disapproval: nullifies the rule and bars issuance of a “substantially similar” rule absent new legislation—raising the stakes for both sides. [25]Web search · turn 3 #3
4. Substantive backdrop: BLM’s Miles City ROD/RMPA (signed Nov 20, 2024) restricted future federal coal leasing in the planning area, catalyzing the CRA response from the Montana delegation and allied interests. [14]Federal Register — Federal Register notice — Miles City ROD/RMPA (Nov. 27, 2024)[10]Office of Sen. Steve Daines — Sen. Daines — Introduces bicameral Miles City CRA…

Assessment: likelihood of enactment

Given passage in both chambers and clear executive support, the remaining question is procedural timing, not outcome.

Chamber status

House passed (211–208) on Sept 3, 2025; Senate passed (52–47) on Oct 8, 2025. [1]Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives — House Clerk Roll Call 224…[2]U.S. Senate Periodical Press Gallery — U.S. Senate Periodical Press Gallery — O…

Executive stance

Administration strongly supports and signaled signature upon presentment. [3]American Presidency Project (UCSB) — Statement of Administration Policy — H.J.R…

Procedural pathway

CRA — no filibuster; simple‑majority votes already secured. [4]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS R43992 — The Congressiona…

Estimated likelihood of becoming law

High (near‑certain).

Confidence

High

Rationale: GOP controls both chambers and the White House; the President’s SAP urged enactment; both chambers have passed the resolution under CRA’s expedited rules. There are no additional veto‑override or 60‑vote hurdles remaining. [6]U.S. Senate Periodical Press Gallery — Senate Party Division, 119th Congress (P…[8]Associated Press — AP — 119th Congress opens: Mike Johnson reelected Speaker[3]American Presidency Project (UCSB) — Statement of Administration Policy — H.J.R…[2]U.S. Senate Periodical Press Gallery — U.S. Senate Periodical Press Gallery — O…

Sourcing notes (primary references)

Key primary documents and institutional sources for verification:

• GAO decision (B‑337163) finding the Miles City RMPA a rule; Congressional Record printing (June 26, 2025). [21]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO Decision B‑337163 — CRA applicabili…[22]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — Congressional Record — Printing of GAO opi…
• BLM notices and press on the Miles City ROD/RMPA (Nov 20–27, 2024). [14]Federal Register — Federal Register notice — Miles City ROD/RMPA (Nov. 27, 2024)[15]Bureau of Land Management — BLM press — Releases ROD and amendment for Miles Ci…
• CRS explainer on CRA mechanics, lookback, and effect of disapproval. [4]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS R43992 — The Congressiona…[24]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS IF12708 — CRA Lookback Me…[25]Web search · turn 3 #3
• House roll‑call (Clerk) for H.J.Res.104; Senate passage reports (Periodical Press Gallery; Senate Democrats’ Floor feed). [1]Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives — House Clerk Roll Call 224…[2]U.S. Senate Periodical Press Gallery — U.S. Senate Periodical Press Gallery — O…[26]Senate Democratic Caucus — Senate Democrats — Wrap Up for Wednesday, Oct. 8, 20…
• Leadership/committee context: Senate party division and GOP leadership; ENR chair; House leadership and HNR chair. [6]U.S. Senate Periodical Press Gallery — Senate Party Division, 119th Congress (P…[7]Senate Republican Conference — Senate GOP Leadership for the 119th Congress[17]Office of Sen. Mike Lee — Sen. Mike Lee — Announcement: Chairing Senate Energy…[8]Associated Press — AP — 119th Congress opens: Mike Johnson reelected Speaker[9]House Majority Leader Office — House Majority Leader Steve Scalise — reelected…[18]House Committee on Natural Resources (Majority) — House Natural Resources — Cha…
• Interest‑group and state‑level positions for/against. [10]Office of Sen. Steve Daines — Sen. Daines — Introduces bicameral Miles City CRA…[11]Office of Gov. Greg Gianforte — Montana Governor — Letter urging Congress to re…[12]Earthjustice — Earthjustice — Opposes CRA to reopen PRB coal leasing (press sta…[13]Sierra Club — Sierra Club — Legal intervention defending PRB coal‑leasing decis…