Analyses / Whip Count Analysis / 119 · S 2440 Whip Count Analysis

119-S-2440 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

119 · S 2440 A bill to direct the Secretary of Agriculture to convey certain National Forest System land located in Franklin County, Mississippi, and for other purposes.

park Public Lands and Natural Resources

Local Forest Service land conveyance for Okhissa Lake advanced by Senate Ag on Oct. 21 and now primed for hotline/UC passage in a GOP‑run Senate; House Natural Resources likely to clear it on suspension with Mississippi delegation engagement. Overall odds to reach the President: high, barring a late hold from public‑lands skeptics. [1]U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry — Senate Ag Commi…[2]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — composition and majorities[3]SDPB — Thune officially Senate Majority Leader as 119th Congress sworn in

Analyzed as
DC Insider
Published
28 Oct 2025
Updated
28 Oct 2025
Tags
whip-count · public-lands · Senate-Agriculture
Unvetted
01 · Section

Breakdown: Expected Support/Opposition by Party and Caucus

This is a small, local conveyance (Franklin County, MS) directing USDA/Forest Service to sell specified Homochitto National Forest parcels at fair market value with proceeds deposited under the Sisk Act. It was introduced by Sen. Cindy Hyde‑Smith (R‑MS) and advanced by the Senate Agriculture Committee on Oct. 21. [4]Library of Congress — Congress.gov — S.2440 (119th): Okhissa Lake rural economi…[1]U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry — Senate Ag Commi…[5]Legal Information Institute — 16 U.S.C. §484a (Sisk Act) — LII

  • Senate GOP (53 seats): Expect near‑unanimous support; sponsor is a Republican, the committee is chaired by Sen. John Boozman (R‑AR), and the bill emerged from his panel in a lands bundle on 10/21. Leadership is positioned to clear it by hotline/UC. [2]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — composition and majorities[6]U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry — Senate Ag Commi…[1]U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry — Senate Ag Commi…
  • Senate Democrats/Independents (47 seats): Generally tolerant of narrow, FMV conveyances when proceeds remain in Forest Service accounts (Sisk Act). Some progressives scrutinize “land sales,” but this measure resembles past bipartisan conveyances that moved by voice vote/UC. [5]Legal Information Institute — 16 U.S.C. §484a (Sisk Act) — LII[7]Wikipedia — Black Hills Cemetery Act — precedent conveyance; votes[8]Wikipedia — Powell Shooting Range Land Conveyance Act — precedent conveyance; v…
  • House Republicans (majority): Likely supportive; upon Senate passage the bill would be referred to House Natural Resources (public lands jurisdiction), where Chairman Bruce Westerman (R‑AR) controls the gate. Small conveyances often run on the Suspension Calendar. [9]U.S. House Natural Resources Committee — House Natural Resources Committee — Ju…[10]U.S. House Natural Resources Committee — Chairman Westerman — House Natural Res…
  • House Democrats (minority): Limited organized resistance expected on a Mississippi‑specific FMV sale tied to a local economic‑development project; committee Democrats typically negotiate any protective language in markup and allow floor passage on suspension. [9]U.S. House Natural Resources Committee — House Natural Resources Committee — Ju…
  • Local/delegation posture: Mississippi stakeholders (Scenic Rivers Development Alliance; Hyatt Okhissa Lake Lodge) have publicly touted the project; Rep. Michael Guest (R‑MS) has voiced support for Okhissa development, signaling likely House delegation help. [11]Hyatt Hotels Corporation — Hyatt newsroom — Destination by Hyatt to debut at Ok…[12]SRDA — Scenic Rivers Development Alliance — Lake Okhissa Lodge page (quotes Rep…
02 · Section

Key Legislators (Potential Pivots)

Pivots here are procedural gatekeepers and any member likely to object to unanimous consent.

  • Sen. Cindy Hyde‑Smith (R‑MS) — sponsor; also a senior GOP on the Ag Committee’s commodities/forestry portfolio. Expect active hotline work. [4]Library of Congress — Congress.gov — S.2440 (119th): Okhissa Lake rural economi…[13]U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry — Senate Ag Commi…
  • Sen. John Boozman (R‑AR) — chair, Senate Agriculture; moved a slate of lands bills (including S.2440) on 10/21. His buy‑in is decisive for floor clearance. [6]U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry — Senate Ag Commi…[1]U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry — Senate Ag Commi…
  • Sen. John Thune (R‑SD) — Majority Leader; controls floor time. These local land bills typically move by UC when cleared by both sides. [3]SDPB — Thune officially Senate Majority Leader as 119th Congress sworn in
  • Sen. Chuck Schumer (D‑NY) — Minority Leader; staff clearance matters for UC. No public Dem leadership opposition to this narrow conveyance. [14]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate — Complete List of Majority and Minority Leaders (sho…
  • Potential UC objectors: Sens. Mike Lee (R‑UT) and Rand Paul (R‑KY) sometimes object on public‑lands or process grounds; recent Lee‑led broad public‑land sale ideas drew bipartisan pushback, but that fight was about large‑scale disposals—not targeted FMV conveyances like S.2440. Monitor holds. [15]Associated Press — AP — Mike Lee land‑sale proposal found to violate Senate rul…[16]Web search · turn 12 #0
  • House pathway pivots: Chairman Bruce Westerman (R‑AR) at full committee; Federal Lands Subcommittee Chair Tom Tiffany (R‑WI) and Ranking Member Joe Neguse (D‑CO). Their willingness to run this on suspension will determine speed. [10]U.S. House Natural Resources Committee — Chairman Westerman — House Natural Res…[17]Wikipedia — House Natural Resources Subcommittee on Federal Lands — membership…
  • Mississippi delegation: Local lift from Rep. Michael Guest (R‑MS), who has publicly promoted the Okhissa project, should help smooth House consideration. [12]SRDA — Scenic Rivers Development Alliance — Lake Okhissa Lodge page (quotes Rep…
03 · Section

Leadership Influence and Procedural Dynamics

Institutional context favors quick movement if the bill remains non‑controversial.

  • Senate: GOP‑run chamber (53–47) under Leader Thune. Post‑committee, small land bills typically clear via hotline and unanimous consent, avoiding the 60‑vote cloture threshold. If a hold appears, the bill could be packaged into a mini‑lands en bloc. [2]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — composition and majorities[3]SDPB — Thune officially Senate Majority Leader as 119th Congress sworn in
  • Committee record: Senate Ag advanced S.2440 on Oct. 21 as part of a multi‑bill USFS package, signaling bipartisan comfort at the panel level. That’s the key green light leadership looks for before UC. [1]U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry — Senate Ag Commi…
  • House: With Speaker Mike Johnson’s slim GOP majority, narrow public‑lands conveyances often run on suspension (two‑thirds). Jurisdiction lies with Natural Resources (not House Ag), so Westerman/Neguse manage the path. [18]Associated Press — AP — Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House Speaker (119th Co…[9]U.S. House Natural Resources Committee — House Natural Resources Committee — Ju…
  • Substance helps: The bill requires FMV by appraisal or competitive sale and deposits proceeds under the Sisk Act—standard guardrails that have underpinned past bipartisan land conveyances. [4]Library of Congress — Congress.gov — S.2440 (119th): Okhissa Lake rural economi…[5]Legal Information Institute — 16 U.S.C. §484a (Sisk Act) — LII
04 · Section

Assessment: Likelihood of Passage

Bottom line from a whip perspective.

  • Senate: High likelihood. Reported from committee; local, FMV, Sisk‑Act‑compliant; fits the UC pattern leadership uses to clear noncontroversial lands bills. Timing: as soon as the next available UC window after clearance on both sides. [1]U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry — Senate Ag Commi…
  • House: High likelihood on substance; moderate timing risk. Expect referral to Natural Resources and movement on suspension if the Mississippi delegation engages and committee Ds get any needed clarifying language. [9]U.S. House Natural Resources Committee — House Natural Resources Committee — Ju…
  • Overall to President’s desk: High. Confidence: high, contingent on absence of a UC hold and no late‑breaking environmental opposition targeted at this specific tract.
Senate control
53R seats
Senate minority
47D/Ind seats
Committee action date
20251021YYYYMMDD
Bill number
2440S.
05 · Section

Key Source Notes

Cited materials include official legislative text/status, committee communications, chamber leadership/composition, jurisdictional references, and precedent for similar conveyances.

  • Bill text and sponsor/status: Congress.gov S.2440. [4]Library of Congress — Congress.gov — S.2440 (119th): Okhissa Lake rural economi…
  • Committee action (Oct. 21 lands slate including S.2440): Senate Ag majority press release. [1]U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry — Senate Ag Commi…
  • Senate control and leadership: 119th Congress overview; Thune Majority Leader; Schumer Minority Leader. [2]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — composition and majorities[3]SDPB — Thune officially Senate Majority Leader as 119th Congress sworn in[14]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate — Complete List of Majority and Minority Leaders (sho…
  • House leadership: Speaker Mike Johnson. [18]Associated Press — AP — Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House Speaker (119th Co…
  • Jurisdiction for House referral: Natural Resources (public lands). [9]U.S. House Natural Resources Committee — House Natural Resources Committee — Ju…
  • Local stakeholder backing (Hyatt/SRDA; MS delegation signal): Hyatt newsroom; SRDA page quoting Rep. Guest. [11]Hyatt Hotels Corporation — Hyatt newsroom — Destination by Hyatt to debut at Ok…[12]SRDA — Scenic Rivers Development Alliance — Lake Okhissa Lodge page (quotes Rep…
  • Proceeds disposition guardrail: Sisk Act (16 U.S.C. 484a). [5]Legal Information Institute — 16 U.S.C. §484a (Sisk Act) — LII
  • Precedent for bipartisan UC/voice votes on similar conveyances: Black Hills Cemetery Act; Powell Shooting Range Land Conveyance Act. [7]Wikipedia — Black Hills Cemetery Act — precedent conveyance; votes[8]Wikipedia — Powell Shooting Range Land Conveyance Act — precedent conveyance; v…
  • Senate Ag business meeting listing S.2440 on 10/21 (Daily Digest notice). [20]Congress.gov — Congressional Record Daily Digest — Oct. 20, 2025 (lists Senate…
Sources cited
  1. [1] Senate Ag Committee — Lands Bills Approved by Senate Ag Committee (includes S.2440) U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry
  2. [2] 119th United States Congress — composition and majorities Wikipedia
  3. [3] Thune officially Senate Majority Leader as 119th Congress sworn in SDPB
  4. [4] Congress.gov — S.2440 (119th): Okhissa Lake rural economic development conveyance (text) Library of Congress
  5. [5] 16 U.S.C. §484a (Sisk Act) — LII Legal Information Institute
  6. [6] Senate Ag Committee — homepage (Chairman Boozman; committee control) U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry
  7. [7] Black Hills Cemetery Act — precedent conveyance; votes Wikipedia
  8. [8] Powell Shooting Range Land Conveyance Act — precedent conveyance; votes Wikipedia
  9. [9] House Natural Resources Committee — Jurisdiction U.S. House Natural Resources Committee
  10. [10] Chairman Westerman — House Natural Resources Committee U.S. House Natural Resources Committee
  11. [11] Hyatt newsroom — Destination by Hyatt to debut at Okhissa Lake Lodge (stakeholder backing) Hyatt Hotels Corporation
  12. [12] Scenic Rivers Development Alliance — Lake Okhissa Lodge page (quotes Rep. Michael Guest) SRDA
  13. [13] Senate Ag Committee — Subcommittees (Hyde‑Smith chairs Commodities subcommittee) U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry
  14. [14] U.S. Senate — Complete List of Majority and Minority Leaders (shows Thune/Schumer for 119th) U.S. Senate
  15. [15] AP — Mike Lee land‑sale proposal found to violate Senate rules, removed from package Associated Press
  16. [16] Web search · turn 12 #0
  17. [17] House Natural Resources Subcommittee on Federal Lands — membership & jurisdiction Wikipedia
  18. [18] AP — Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House Speaker (119th Congress opens) Associated Press
  19. [19] Reuters — Western governors oppose broad federal land sell‑off plan (2025) Reuters
  20. [20] Congressional Record Daily Digest — Oct. 20, 2025 (lists Senate Ag business meeting incl. S.2440) Congress.gov

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