119-HR-398 DC Insider Prediction Analysis

Passage Probability

Where it stands and why it moves — or stalls — under current power dynamics.

• Status: Introduced January 14, 2025; subcommittee hearing December 16, 2025; ordered reported without amendment by the full Natural Resources Committee on March 5, 2026. [2]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — All Information for H.R. 398 | Congress.gov
• Institutional setting: Republicans control both chambers; Mike Johnson was reelected Speaker on January 3, 2025; the Senate Energy & Natural Resources (ENR) Committee is chaired by Sen. Mike Lee with Sen. Martin Heinrich as Ranking Member. [3]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Party Division
• What the bill does (high level): Temporarily authorizes Interior/BLM to recover reasonable administrative costs from geothermal lease applicants/holders through September 30, 2032, with a 5‑year reportback requirement and collections available only if later provided for in appropriations acts. [4]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — H.R.398 - Geothermal Cost-Recovery Authori…
• Signal from stakeholders: Geothermal Rising (industry association) explicitly supports H.R. 398 as a way to add permitting capacity via reimbursable processing; they frame it as part of a complementary geothermal package. [5]U.S. House (docs.house.gov) — Written submission of Geothermal Rising (Dec. 16,…
• Precedent/fit with existing policy: BLM already uses cost‑recovery for other programs (e.g., rights‑of‑way under FLPMA §304(b); APD fixed fees), which reduces ideological friction on the fee mechanics. [6]Legal Information Institute (Cornell) — 43 CFR 2804.14 – Cost recovery for righ…

Obstacles

Specific hurdles that can reroute or stall H.R. 398.

• Floor time in an election year: Even consensus items compete with messaging bills and appropriations; leadership is incentivized to consolidate low‑drama items into packages. Speaker Johnson controls the floor and will prioritize GOP‑branded wins. [7]UPI — Rep. Mike Johnson voted House speaker again after 2 switch votes
• Appropriations gating: The bill’s reimbursable collections are “available only to the extent provided in advance in appropriations Acts,” creating a dependency on the FY27 Interior bill for spend authority. [4]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — H.R.398 - Geothermal Cost-Recovery Authori…
• No CBO cost estimate yet: Absence of a score can delay a rule or UC agreements if budget points are raised. [2]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — All Information for H.R. 398 | Congress.gov
• Sponsorship optics: As the sponsor is Rep. Ocasio‑Cortez, stand‑alone floor time is less likely under GOP management; packaging with other geothermal bills mitigates this. [1]GovInfo (GPO) — Congressional Record — Daily Digest March 5, 2026
• Senate gatekeepers: ENR under Chairman Lee may seek edits or prefer alternative GOP‑sponsored geothermal provisions, adding negotiation time. [8]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources — Lee, Heinrich Announce…
• Process/precedent questions: While cost‑recovery is familiar in other BLM programs (ROWs, APD fees), extending it into geothermal will still draw technical questions on fee setting and hardship reductions. [6]Legal Information Institute (Cornell) — 43 CFR 2804.14 – Cost recovery for righ…

Short-Term Consequences

What happens in the next 1–2 quarters if H.R. 398 advances or stalls.

• If it advances out of Rules (likely as a package): House passage provides a clean process win for Natural Resources and adds a pay‑as‑you‑go mechanism to speed BLM geothermal processing capacity. [1]GovInfo (GPO) — Congressional Record — Daily Digest March 5, 2026
• Policy effect on enactment: Interior could start billing reimbursable costs (subject to appropriations language to spend the offsetting collections), addressing staff/resource bottlenecks cited by industry. [4]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — H.R.398 - Geothermal Cost-Recovery Authori…
• If it stalls: Minimal immediate policy impact; geothermal items with clearer GOP branding (e.g., STEAM, HEATS, Royalty Reform) may move without the cost‑recovery piece. [1]GovInfo (GPO) — Congressional Record — Daily Digest March 5, 2026
• Broader context: BLM already administers geothermal leasing and guidance; a targeted fee authority would align the program with ROW and APD practices rather than create a novel regime. [9]Bureau of Land Management — Geothermal Energy | BLM

Long-Term Consequences

Structural and coalition effects over 2–5 years if enacted.

• Permitting throughput: Reimbursable processing and inspection resources should modestly shorten timelines at the margin, complementing other geothermal streamlining bills and administrative CEs. [5]U.S. House (docs.house.gov) — Written submission of Geothermal Rising (Dec. 16,…
• Program alignment: Moves geothermal toward parity with existing BLM cost‑recovery frameworks (FLPMA‑based ROW fees; APD fees), reducing cross‑program inconsistencies. [6]Legal Information Institute (Cornell) — 43 CFR 2804.14 – Cost recovery for righ…
• Coalition durability: Industry support plus limited fiscal exposure (offsetting collections with sunset) suggests low risk of later repeal; practical performance will hinge on how appropriators write annual spend authority. [5]U.S. House (docs.house.gov) — Written submission of Geothermal Rising (Dec. 16,…

Forecast

Most probable path and credible alternatives.

1. Base case (most likely): Packaged House floor action in June–July 2026 with the geothermal bundle; H.R. 398 passes the House and awaits Senate time. Overall enactment odds this Congress ~35%. [1]GovInfo (GPO) — Congressional Record — Daily Digest March 5, 2026
2. Secondary 1: House leadership runs out of floor time for the full package; item slips to lame‑duck or dies on the calendar. [7]UPI — Rep. Mike Johnson voted House speaker again after 2 switch votes
3. Secondary 2: House passes; Senate ENR refines or holds for a broader land/energy mini‑omnibus; unanimous consent possible late in session but not guaranteed. [8]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources — Lee, Heinrich Announce…

• Why the base case: Committee action completed; stakeholder support; modest, sunsetted authority; and existing BLM cost‑recovery analogues reduce policy friction. [1]GovInfo (GPO) — Congressional Record — Daily Digest March 5, 2026
• What flips the call: A tight pre‑election calendar or an appropriations fight that sidelines offsetting‑collection language. [7]UPI — Rep. Mike Johnson voted House speaker again after 2 switch votes

Sourcing (key references)

• Congress.gov bill page and CRS summary for H.R. 398 (scope, appropriations clause, sunset). [4]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — H.R.398 - Geothermal Cost-Recovery Authori…
• Congressional Record Daily Digest (Mar 5, 2026) confirming H.R. 398 ordered reported. [1]GovInfo (GPO) — Congressional Record — Daily Digest March 5, 2026
• House Natural Resources chair/organization (119th), official committee and Clerk pages. [10]House Committee on Natural Resources — Westerman Confirmed Chairman for 119th C…
• Senate ENR leadership and subcommittee assignments (119th). [8]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources — Lee, Heinrich Announce…
• BLM program context and existing cost‑recovery frameworks (ROW, APD fees). [9]Bureau of Land Management — Geothermal Energy | BLM
• Industry position (Geothermal Rising written submission). [5]U.S. House (docs.house.gov) — Written submission of Geothermal Rising (Dec. 16,…
• Chamber control and House speakership confirmations (context for floor strategy). [3]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Party Division