Analyses / Whip Count Analysis / 119 · SJRES 69 Whip Count Analysis

119-SJRES-69 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

119 · SJRES 69 A joint resolution providing for congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United States Code, of the rule submitted by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service relating to "Record of Decision for the Barred Owl Management Strategy; Washington, Oregon, and California".

eco Environmental Protection

Bottom line: With Republicans controlling both chambers and CRA’s privileged Senate process, S.J.Res. 69 is positioned to pass the Senate on a simple‑majority vote; a bipartisan House companion with dozens of cosponsors suggests likely House passage. The White House would sign. Key risk: a small bloc of GOP senators (especially moderates) peeling off over wildlife‑management optics; PNW Democrats will uniformly oppose. Overall likelihood of enactment: high (confidence: moderate). [1]senate.gov — U.S. Senate: Party Division[2]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: The Congressional Review…[3]Congress.gov — Congress.gov: S.J.Res.69 — Cosponsors[4]Congress.gov — Congress.gov: H.J.Res.111 — Cosponsors

Analyzed as
DC Insider
Published
16 Oct 2025
Updated
16 Oct 2025
Tags
whip-count · CRA · Senate
Unvetted
01 · Section

Breakdown: expected support and opposition

Context: Republicans hold Senate and House majorities; CRA gives the Senate a non‑filibusterable path with 10 hours of debate and a simple‑majority vote. [1]senate.gov — U.S. Senate: Party Division[2]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: The Congressional Review…

  • Senate GOP (53 seats): Leadership can bring the measure up under CRA; expect broad Republican support, with possible defections among a few moderates. Net expectation: passage with low‑50s GOP votes absent unusual blowback. [1]senate.gov — U.S. Senate: Party Division[2]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: The Congressional Review…
  • Senate Democrats/Independents (47, incl. King/Sanders): Anticipated near‑uniform opposition, especially from Pacific Northwest and California delegations that back the Fish & Wildlife Service (FWS) strategy to protect spotted owls. [5]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — FWS Press Release (Aug. 28, 2024): Final Barred…
  • House GOP (narrow majority): Likely to back the CRA resolution if it reaches the floor; leadership has procedural control to do so. [6]Associated Press — AP: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House Speaker (119th ope…
  • House Democrats: Not monolithic—companion H.J.Res. 111 has a notable bipartisan roster (including several Democrats), signaling potential crossover votes on final passage. [4]Congress.gov — Congress.gov: H.J.Res.111 — Cosponsors
  • Issue frame likely driving votes: opponents of FWS’s lethal‑removal plan cite cost/ethics; supporters emphasize agency science and spotted‑owl recovery. [7]Associated Press — AP: Lawmakers urge Trump administration to cancel owl‑killin…[8]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — FWS Press Release (July 3, 2024): Final EIS on B…
Senate party split (119th)
53R seats (47 D/I) [1]senate.gov — U.S. Senate: Party Division
Senate CRA threshold
51simple‑majority; debate capped at 10 hours [2]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: The Congressional Review…
S.J.Res. 69 Senate cosponsors
5GOP cosponsors as of Oct. 16, 2025 [3]Congress.gov — Congress.gov: S.J.Res.69 — Cosponsors
H.J.Res. 111 House cosponsors
34bipartisan; several Democrats included [4]Congress.gov — Congress.gov: H.J.Res.111 — Cosponsors
02 · Section

Key legislators and potential swing votes

Focus on members with procedural pull, caucus sway, or state/district incentives tied to the Barred Owl strategy.

Chamber/Member Why they matter Read of position (public indicators)
Sen. John Thune (R‑SD), Majority Leader Controls floor time; can schedule CRA under privileged procedures. Signals general support for using CRA this Congress; no specific public statement on S.J.Res.69. Expect to facilitate a vote. [9]Senate GOP Leader site — Senate Republican Leader site: Thune Delivers First Re…[2]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: The Congressional Review…
Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R‑WV), EPW Chair Committee of referral; EPW has already seen other CRA discharges; chair generally aligned with GOP regulatory rollbacks. No specific statement on this rule; as chair, unlikely to resist leadership on a CRA calendar push. [10]U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works — Senate EPW: Capito, Whi…
PNW/Cali Democrats (Murray, Cantwell, Wyden, Merkley, Padilla, Schiff) Home‑state stakes: FWS strategy targets WA/OR/CA; these members typically back agency science on spotted owl recovery. Expect opposition to disapproval (aligns with FWS strategy/EIS). No direct quotes located for this resolution. [5]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — FWS Press Release (Aug. 28, 2024): Final Barred…[8]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — FWS Press Release (July 3, 2024): Final EIS on B…
Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R‑AK) & Sen. Susan Collins (R‑ME) Moderate Rs with wildlife/conservation profiles; sometimes buck party on environmental optics. Potential soft opposition or neutrality is the risk for GOP unity; no public position found on S.J.Res.69. (Inference.)
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R‑LA) Controls floor access in the House; can move the companion or accept the Senate‑passed vehicle under a closed rule. Narrow majority but demonstrated ability to advance partisan priorities; likely to schedule if Senate acts. [6]Associated Press — AP: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House Speaker (119th ope…
House Natural Resources Chair Bruce Westerman (R‑AR) Committee of jurisdiction for the House companion; forestry/wildlife portfolio. Institutionally aligned with moving CRA items; no on‑point statement on barred‑owl CRA. [11]Web search · turn 17 #2
House bipartisan bloc on H.J.Res. 111 (e.g., Harder, Kamlager‑Dove, Gottheimer) Public bipartisan discomfort with the FWS plan (cost/ethics) expands the path to 218. Documented Democratic cosponsors signal crossover potential. [4]Congress.gov — Congress.gov: H.J.Res.111 — Cosponsors
03 · Section

Leadership stance and procedural dynamics

Process matters here; CRA’s mechanics minimize Senate obstruction and shift leverage to scheduling and simple arithmetic.

  • Senate leadership: Thune can recognize a nondebatable motion to proceed once the resolution is on the calendar; total debate time is capped at 10 hours; passage requires a simple majority. [2]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: The Congressional Review…
  • Committee bottleneck removed: Under 5 U.S.C. 802(c), 30 senators can discharge a CRA resolution after 20 calendar days—once discharged, it’s placed on the Calendar of Business under General Orders. [12]LII / Cornell Law — 5 U.S.C. §802 — Congressional disapproval procedure[13]senate.gov — U.S. Senate: About the Senate Legislative Calendar
  • Substance at issue: GAO determined the Barred Owl Record of Decision is a “rule” for CRA purposes; that finding enables CRA treatment of the FWS decision. [14]U.S. GAO — GAO Decision B-337059: Applicability of CRA to FWS Barred Owl ROD[15]Congressional Record via Congress.gov — Congressional Record: GAO decision prin…
  • House pathway: No formal fast‑track, but majority leadership (Speaker Johnson/Rules) can structure a closed rule to bring the measure up quickly. [6]Associated Press — AP: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House Speaker (119th ope…[16]Web search · turn 2 #2
  • Executive posture: With a Republican White House, signature is expected if both chambers pass, unlike prior cycles where CRA outcomes hinged on a veto. [17]PBS NewsHour (AP) — PBS/AP: Donald Trump sworn in as 47th president (Jan. 20, 2…
04 · Section

Issue landscape and interest‑group pressure

This vote is being framed not as pro‑ or anti‑owl, but as agency science vs. cost/ethics of lethal control.

  • FWS position: Final EIS and Record of Decision conclude barred‑owl removal is necessary to prevent spotted‑owl extirpation in significant parts of its range; implementation via MBTA permit; no public hunting. [8]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — FWS Press Release (July 3, 2024): Final EIS on B…[19]Federal Register — Federal Register: Final EIS availability — Barred Owl Manage…[5]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — FWS Press Release (Aug. 28, 2024): Final Barred…
  • Opposition coalition: Animal welfare advocates and some bipartisan lawmakers object to scale, cost, and ethics; litigation already filed challenging the plan. [7]Associated Press — AP: Lawmakers urge Trump administration to cancel owl‑killin…[20]Bloomberg Law — Bloomberg Law: Animal advocates challenge FWS Barred Owl Strate…
  • Scientific/avian‑conservation voices: Long‑running agency literature emphasizes barred‑owl pressure on spotted owls; supporters cite prior removal experiments showing survival gains. [21]Web search · turn 16 #2
05 · Section

Assessment: Likelihood of passage

Power, procedure, and timing drive outcomes more than persuasion here.

  • Senate: Likely passage. With 53 Rs and CRA’s simple‑majority path, leadership needs to hold most Republicans even if a couple peel off. Expect a 52–55 vote for disapproval absent late‑stage cross‑pressures. Confidence: moderate. [1]senate.gov — U.S. Senate: Party Division[2]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: The Congressional Review…
  • House: Lean‑pass. Companion measure already shows bipartisan sponsorship; majority leadership can run a closed rule. Expect several Democratic crossovers alongside a unified (or near‑unified) GOP. Confidence: moderate‑to‑high. [4]Congress.gov — Congress.gov: H.J.Res.111 — Cosponsors[6]Associated Press — AP: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House Speaker (119th ope…
  • Signature: Expected. Unified GOP control increases the odds the White House signs a CRA disapproval. Confidence: high. [17]PBS NewsHour (AP) — PBS/AP: Donald Trump sworn in as 47th president (Jan. 20, 2…

Net: High likelihood S.J.Res. 69 clears Congress and is enacted. Primary downside risk is a small GOP Senate defection cluster over wildlife‑management optics; the upside for opponents is limited because CRA forecloses filibuster and reduces amendment leverage. [2]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: The Congressional Review…

06 · Section

Sourcing highlights

Key documents and reporting underpinning this whip count:

  • GAO decision that the Barred Owl Record of Decision is a CRA‑covered rule; Congressional Record printing. [14]U.S. GAO — GAO Decision B-337059: Applicability of CRA to FWS Barred Owl ROD[15]Congressional Record via Congress.gov — Congressional Record: GAO decision prin…
  • Congress.gov bill pages and cosponsor rosters for S.J.Res. 69 and H.J.Res. 111. [22]Congress.gov — Congress.gov: S.J.Res.69 — Overview[3]Congress.gov — Congress.gov: S.J.Res.69 — Cosponsors[23]Congress.gov — Congress.gov: H.J.Res.111 — Overview[4]Congress.gov — Congress.gov: H.J.Res.111 — Cosponsors
  • CRA procedures (CRS, LII) and Senate calendar mechanics. [2]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: The Congressional Review…[12]LII / Cornell Law — 5 U.S.C. §802 — Congressional disapproval procedure[13]senate.gov — U.S. Senate: About the Senate Legislative Calendar
  • FWS strategy/EIS and Federal Register notice. [5]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — FWS Press Release (Aug. 28, 2024): Final Barred…[8]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — FWS Press Release (July 3, 2024): Final EIS on B…[19]Federal Register — Federal Register: Final EIS availability — Barred Owl Manage…
  • Bipartisan lawmaker objections and ongoing litigation over the plan. [7]Associated Press — AP: Lawmakers urge Trump administration to cancel owl‑killin…[20]Bloomberg Law — Bloomberg Law: Animal advocates challenge FWS Barred Owl Strate…
  • Institutional control: Senate/House party splits and leaders. [1]senate.gov — U.S. Senate: Party Division[24]senate.gov — U.S. Senate: Majority and Minority Leaders list (119th)[6]Associated Press — AP: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House Speaker (119th ope…
Sources cited
  1. [1] U.S. Senate: Party Division senate.gov
  2. [2] CRS: The Congressional Review Act (CRA): Frequently Asked Questions Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov
  3. [3] Congress.gov: S.J.Res.69 — Cosponsors Congress.gov
  4. [4] Congress.gov: H.J.Res.111 — Cosponsors Congress.gov
  5. [5] FWS Press Release (Aug. 28, 2024): Final Barred Owl Management Strategy U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service
  6. [6] AP: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House Speaker (119th opens) Associated Press
  7. [7] AP: Lawmakers urge Trump administration to cancel owl‑killing plan Associated Press
  8. [8] FWS Press Release (July 3, 2024): Final EIS on Barred Owl Strategy U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service
  9. [9] Senate Republican Leader site: Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Leader Senate GOP Leader site
  10. [10] Senate EPW: Capito, Whitehouse Announce EPW Subcommittee Assignments (119th) U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works
  11. [11] Web search · turn 17 #2
  12. [12] 5 U.S.C. §802 — Congressional disapproval procedure LII / Cornell Law
  13. [13] U.S. Senate: About the Senate Legislative Calendar senate.gov
  14. [14] GAO Decision B-337059: Applicability of CRA to FWS Barred Owl ROD U.S. GAO
  15. [15] Congressional Record: GAO decision printed (S4311–S4313) Congressional Record via Congress.gov
  16. [16] Web search · turn 2 #2
  17. [17] PBS/AP: Donald Trump sworn in as 47th president (Jan. 20, 2025) PBS NewsHour (AP)
  18. [18] 5 U.S.C. §801 — Congressional review (substantially the same) LII / Cornell Law
  19. [19] Federal Register: Final EIS availability — Barred Owl Management Strategy (89 FR 55647) Federal Register
  20. [20] Bloomberg Law: Animal advocates challenge FWS Barred Owl Strategy Bloomberg Law
  21. [21] Web search · turn 16 #2
  22. [22] Congress.gov: S.J.Res.69 — Overview Congress.gov
  23. [23] Congress.gov: H.J.Res.111 — Overview Congress.gov
  24. [24] U.S. Senate: Majority and Minority Leaders list (119th) senate.gov

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