119-S-246 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

Breakdown: likely support and opposition

Positions anchored to verified public actions, party control, and institutional roles.

• Senate landscape: GOP holds 53–47 control (Ds+Is). Filibuster remains in effect; 60 votes or unanimous consent (UC) needed for floor passage. [7]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Party Division – 119th Congress[8]Congress.gov / CRS — CRS: Filibusters and Cloture in the Senate (Rule XXII)
• Bill status: Reported from Senate Commerce (Chair: Sen. Ted Cruz) without amendment; placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar (No. 268) on November 18, 2025. [9]U.S. Senate Commerce Committee — The Chairman - U.S. Senate Committee on Commer…[1]Congress.gov — S.246 – Interstate Transport Act of 2025 (Status, Actions, Calen…
• Public YES (firm): 8 senators — Sponsor Budd (R-NC) plus cosponsors Wyden (D-OR), Crapo (R-ID), Heinrich (D-NM), Daines (R-MT), Peters (D-MI), Risch (R-ID), Lummis (R-WY), Barrasso (R-WY). [2]Congress.gov — S.246 – Cosponsors (119th Congress)
• Soft GOP support: With 53 Republicans and committee reporting by a GOP chair, baseline expectation is broad Republican backing absent stated defections; no public GOP opposition identified to date. (Analytic inference based on party control and committee action; corroborated by lack of contrary reporting on Congress.gov.) [1]Congress.gov — S.246 – Interstate Transport Act of 2025 (Status, Actions, Calen…
• Cross‑party precedent: A near‑identical measure passed the Senate by unanimous consent in 2018; the 2019 version was reported with bipartisan support and placed on the Calendar. This history increases UC viability if no member objects. [3]Congress.gov — S.1092 (2018) – Interstate Transport Act of 2018 (Passed Senate…[10]Congress.gov — S.542 (2019) – Interstate Transport Act of 2019 (Reported; Calen…
• House landscape: Republicans hold a narrow majority; Speaker Mike Johnson controls floor time. Related House bill (KOPA, H.R. 60) was ordered reported from Judiciary 13–10, signaling largely party‑line support. [6]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress (party control, margins)[11]Speaker of the House — Home – Speaker of the House Mike Johnson[5]Congress.gov — H.R.60 – Knife Owners’ Protection Act of 2025 (All Actions)
• Interest group posture: The American Knife & Tool Institute (AKTI) is actively lobbying for passage and has publicly applauded the bipartisan Senate coalition. [12]American Knife & Tool Institute — AKTI: Interstate Transport Act Reintroduced (…[13]American Knife & Tool Institute — AKTI: About the Interstate Transport Act (ITA)

Key legislators (swing/pivotal)

Members with agenda control or credible leverage based on committee seats, public sponsorship, or caucus alignment.

• Sen. John Thune (R‑SD), Majority Leader — controls floor time and whether to hotline/seek UC; has pledged to preserve the filibuster, keeping the 60‑vote reality in place. Practical effect: bill likely needs bipartisan buy‑in or zero objections for UC. [14]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Lea…[4]Associated Press — New Majority Leader Thune kicks off Senate session with pled…
• Sen. Ted Cruz (R‑TX), Chair, Senate Commerce — reported S. 246; can work member‑to‑member to clear holds and negotiate any hotline tweaks. [9]U.S. Senate Commerce Committee — The Chairman - U.S. Senate Committee on Commer…[1]Congress.gov — S.246 – Interstate Transport Act of 2025 (Status, Actions, Calen…
• Democratic co‑sponsors as anchors for cross‑party votes: Sens. Ron Wyden (OR), Martin Heinrich (NM), Gary Peters (MI). Their support demonstrates some blue‑state/western and Midwest cover for a pro‑transport preemption bill and are first‑call validators for additional Democrats. [2]Congress.gov — S.246 – Cosponsors (119th Congress)
• Democrats on Commerce not yet on the bill (targets/uncertain): Ranking Member Maria Cantwell (WA), plus Klobuchar (MN), Schatz (HI), Markey (MA), Baldwin (WI), Duckworth (IL), Rosen (NV), Luján (NM), Hickenlooper (CO), Fetterman (PA), Andy Kim (NJ), Lisa Blunt Rochester (DE). Committee Dems can shape UC clearances or request colloquies/letters. [15]U.S. Senate Commerce Committee — Press release: Sen. Cruz designated Chairman o…
• House: Speaker Mike Johnson (R‑LA) sets floor queue; Chairman Jim Jordan’s Judiciary panel already advanced the related House bill, indicating leadership alignment to move a Senate vehicle or their own. [11]Speaker of the House — Home – Speaker of the House Mike Johnson[5]Congress.gov — H.R.60 – Knife Owners’ Protection Act of 2025 (All Actions)[16]Web search · turn 15 #12

Leadership influence and procedure

• Senate procedure: With the filibuster intact, options are either (a) UC with no objection, or (b) 60 votes for cloture. GOP at 53 seats requires at least 7–8 Democrats/Independents to reach 60 if any objection arises. [7]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Party Division – 119th Congress[8]Congress.gov / CRS — CRS: Filibusters and Cloture in the Senate (Rule XXII)
• Calendar position: S. 246 is on the Senate Calendar (No. 268). Leadership can hotline; any single objection forces a cloture path. Precedent from 2018 UC helps, but today’s environment is more objection‑prone. [1]Congress.gov — S.246 – Interstate Transport Act of 2025 (Status, Actions, Calen…[3]Congress.gov — S.1092 (2018) – Interstate Transport Act of 2018 (Passed Senate…
• Committee leverage: Commerce Chair Cruz and Ranking Member Cantwell can negotiate clarifying colloquies (e.g., law‑enforcement carve‑outs already in text, TSA carve‑out) to defuse holds. Text already excludes passenger‑cabin knives and adds fee‑shifting/expungement — likely negotiation points. [17]Congress.gov — S.246 – Bill Text (119th Congress)
• House procedure: With Judiciary having reported H.R. 60, Rules can structure a closed or structured rule; tight majority and leadership control make floor passage likely if/when prioritized. [5]Congress.gov — H.R.60 – Knife Owners’ Protection Act of 2025 (All Actions)
• Executive context: GOP unified control (Trump–Vance, GOP Senate and House) reduces veto risk; the main veto‑point is the Senate’s 60‑vote/UC hurdle. [18]Web search · turn 3 #17[7]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Party Division – 119th Congress[6]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress (party control, margins)

Assessment: whip count and odds

• Senate whip (as of Nov. 20, 2025): Firm 8 (sponsor + 7 cosponsors). Probable GOP adds: high, but at least one Democratic/independent objection would force cloture; to clear cloture, plan on 60 — meaning +4–6 more Ds/Is beyond current three Democratic cosponsors. Precedent of 2018 UC mildly improves prospects for a hotline if fee‑shifting/expungement concerns are assuaged. Overall Senate odds: moderate via UC; low‑to‑moderate via cloture. [2]Congress.gov — S.246 – Cosponsors (119th Congress)[8]Congress.gov / CRS — CRS: Filibusters and Cloture in the Senate (Rule XXII)[3]Congress.gov — S.1092 (2018) – Interstate Transport Act of 2018 (Passed Senate…
• House whip: Favorable. Related H.R. 60 advanced 13–10 in Judiciary and the GOP holds the floor. Expect mostly party‑line passage with a handful of crossover possibilities if/when scheduled. Overall House odds: high. [5]Congress.gov — H.R.60 – Knife Owners’ Protection Act of 2025 (All Actions)[6]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress (party control, margins)
• Aggregate enactment odds this work period: moderate. Path of least resistance is Senate UC after quiet member consultations; absent UC, bill likely waits for a bipartisan floor package where it can hitch a ride. [1]Congress.gov — S.246 – Interstate Transport Act of 2025 (Status, Actions, Calen…

Confidence: moderate for House; moderate (UC‑dependent) for Senate.

Sources (selected)

Key references underlying positions, procedure, and status.

• Congress.gov docket for S. 246: reported by Chair Cruz; Calendar No. 268 (Nov. 18, 2025). [1]Congress.gov — S.246 – Interstate Transport Act of 2025 (Status, Actions, Calen…
• Official bill text (scope, TSA carve‑out, fee‑shifting/expungement). [17]Congress.gov — S.246 – Bill Text (119th Congress)
• Cosponsors list (bipartisan: 5R/3D). [2]Congress.gov — S.246 – Cosponsors (119th Congress)
• Senate control and leaders: GOP 53, Thune Majority Leader; filibuster pledge. [7]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Party Division – 119th Congress[14]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Lea…[4]Associated Press — New Majority Leader Thune kicks off Senate session with pled…
• Filibuster/cloture requirements (CRS). [8]Congress.gov / CRS — CRS: Filibusters and Cloture in the Senate (Rule XXII)
• Prior Senate precedent — Interstate Transport Act UC in 2018; 2019 report. [3]Congress.gov — S.1092 (2018) – Interstate Transport Act of 2018 (Passed Senate…[19]Web search · turn 10 #0
• House companion activity (H.R. 60 reported 13–10) and House/Speaker context. [5]Congress.gov — H.R.60 – Knife Owners’ Protection Act of 2025 (All Actions)[6]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress (party control, margins)[11]Speaker of the House — Home – Speaker of the House Mike Johnson
• Commerce Committee leadership/membership context for negotiations. [15]U.S. Senate Commerce Committee — Press release: Sen. Cruz designated Chairman o…
• AKTI public advocacy/coalition posture. [12]American Knife & Tool Institute — AKTI: Interstate Transport Act Reintroduced (…[13]American Knife & Tool Institute — AKTI: About the Interstate Transport Act (ITA)