119-HR-3109 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

Breakdown — where the votes likely are

What we know from public tallies and institutional alignments.

- House posture: Passed 230–176 on Nov. 20, 2025; GOP 205–0; Dems 25–176. This is a clean indicator that the concept can attract a modest bipartisan bloc. [1]Congress.gov — House Roll Call Vote 303 on H.R. 3109 (REFINER Act)

- Senate posture by party/caucus (expectations): - Republicans (53): Expect near‑unanimous support; leadership is incentivized to move pro‑production messaging vehicles and the ENR chair is aligned. [2]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate Party Division – 119th Congress[3]energy.senate.gov — Senate ENR: Heinrich (Ranking) & Lee (Chair) Announce 119th… - Democrats/Independents (47): Base case assumes most oppose due to NPC authorship; swing tranche of ~5–10 could be gettable with edits that add balance (e.g., EIA/GAO participation, stakeholder diversity). Minority views in the House report preview the core objection (NPC bias). [5]govinfo.gov — House Report 119‑267 – Minority Views on NPC authorship

- Institutional status: Received in the Senate on Dec. 1 and referred to ENR; no Senate floor action yet. [4]Congress.gov — All Actions for H.R. 3109 – Senate referral noted Dec. 1, 2025

- Substance (why it’s movable): text is a directive for a report to the National Petroleum Council within 90 days; CBO flagged negligible cost/mandate impact. That lowers the policy stakes and improves amendment‑as‑off‑ramp potential. [6]Congress.gov — Text of H.R. 3109 (Engrossed in House)[7]govinfo.gov — House Report 119‑267 (CBO and background)

Key legislators — pivotal or movable votes

Focus on senators whose public records or constituencies create leverage.

• Mike Lee (R‑UT), ENR chair: gatekeeper for hearings/markup; broadly pro‑oil & gas posture. If he runs a quick, clean markup, it signals leadership intends to hotline for UC. [3]energy.senate.gov — Senate ENR: Heinrich (Ranking) & Lee (Chair) Announce 119th…[8]Web search · turn 10 #8
• John Thune (R‑SD), Majority Leader: controls floor time and has committed to preserving the 60‑vote threshold — meaning he’ll pursue UC or assemble 60. His buy‑in determines whether this rides a consent package or needs a paid‑for floor slot. [9]Sen. John Thune (official) — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Le…
• Chuck Schumer (D‑NY), Minority Leader: can coordinate caucus holds. Public posture opposing GOP energy agenda suggests caucus skepticism about NPC‑run mandates; he’ll trade for balance language. [10]Web search · turn 11 #2
• Angus King (I‑ME): frequent bipartisan on energy security; recently co‑sponsored LNG‑to‑adversaries restrictions — an energy‑security framing that could make a neutral refinery study palatable if balanced. [11]Sen. Jeff Merkley (official) — Sen. Merkley release: LNG export ban to adversar…
• Gary Peters (D‑MI) and Maria Cantwell (D‑WA): active on bipartisan pipeline safety (with Cruz/Young), signaling willingness to engage on reliability/industrial issues; could be persuadable on a broadened study. [12]commerce.senate.gov — Senate Commerce: Bipartisan PIPELINE Safety Act (Cruz, Ca…
• John Fetterman (D‑PA): represents a refining and gas‑heavy state and has engaged on methane/pipeline standards; could support a balanced study without endorsing deregulation. [13]Web search · turn 18 #2

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

Who can move or block it — and how.

• Senate control: GOP 53–47; ENR chaired by Mike Lee with Martin Heinrich as Ranking. Majority has agenda control in committee and on the floor. [2]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate Party Division – 119th Congress[3]energy.senate.gov — Senate ENR: Heinrich (Ranking) & Lee (Chair) Announce 119th…
• Floor strategy: Thune intends to keep the filibuster; absent UC, bill needs 60. Given the House’s 25 Dem yeas, 7–10 Senate Dem/Ind votes are theoretically available if text is narrowed/balanced. [9]Sen. John Thune (official) — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Le…
• House posture: Energy & Commerce under Chair Brett Guthrie is supportive and already messaging the bill’s pro‑supply thesis; sponsor Bob Latta is actively whipping. Useful for bicameral pressure. [14]House Energy & Commerce (Republicans) — Energy & Commerce (House): Chairman Gut…[15]Office of Rep. Bob Latta — Rep. Bob Latta press release: House Passes Latta’s R…
• Executive branch: DOE Sec. Chris Wright is aligned with NPC workstreams; DOE emphasizes NPC’s advisory role under FACA — so the administration will support or implement quickly if it reaches the President’s desk. [16]Associated Press — AP: Senate confirms Chris Wright as Energy Secretary[17]Department of Energy — DOE: National Petroleum Council — mission and FACA status
• Interest groups: AFPM publicly backed the bill before the House vote. Expect supportive downstream coalition; environmental groups will echo the House minority’s NPC‑bias argument. [18]AFPM — AFPM statement supporting the REFINER Act[5]govinfo.gov — House Report 119‑267 – Minority Views on NPC authorship

Assessment — odds and path to passage

Bottom line from a whip and procedure perspective.

- Likelihood this session: Moderate. Baseline path is ENR markup early 2026, then attempted UC. If any Dem objects, leadership must find ~7 crossover votes for cloture; that is attainable with a balancing amendment (e.g., require DOE/EIA/GAO involvement and publish all data/methods).

• Core whip math: GOP ~53 yes; Dem/Ind baseline yes 0–3; targetable swing tranche 5–10 with balance changes — enough to clear 60. [2]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate Party Division – 119th Congress[5]govinfo.gov — House Report 119‑267 – Minority Views on NPC authorship
• Most efficient fix: Amend to direct NPC to conduct the study “in coordination with EIA/GAO” and require stakeholder transparency; this directly addresses the bias critique previewed in the House report. [5]govinfo.gov — House Report 119‑267 – Minority Views on NPC authorship
• Timing: Referred Dec. 1; realistic markup window is Q1 2026. If not UC‑cleared, expect it to hitch a ride on a bipartisan energy reliability or pipeline safety package later in 2026. [4]Congress.gov — All Actions for H.R. 3109 – Senate referral noted Dec. 1, 2025[12]commerce.senate.gov — Senate Commerce: Bipartisan PIPELINE Safety Act (Cruz, Ca…
• Executive‑branch backstop: Even without enactment, DOE can (and is) tasking NPC with related studies, so the policy aim advances administratively. That lowers Dem cost to allow a vote while also reducing urgency. [17]Department of Energy — DOE: National Petroleum Council — mission and FACA status

Sourcing — primary references used

Key public, verifiable sources underpinning this assessment.

• Congress.gov bill file, actions, and roll call: text, House passage, Senate referral. [6]Congress.gov — Text of H.R. 3109 (Engrossed in House)[4]Congress.gov — All Actions for H.R. 3109 – Senate referral noted Dec. 1, 2025[1]Congress.gov — House Roll Call Vote 303 on H.R. 3109 (REFINER Act)
• House GOP Cloakroom vote breakdown (party split). [19]House Republican Cloakroom — House Republican Cloakroom: Floor summary for Nov.…
• House committee report (CBO estimate; minority views on NPC). [7]govinfo.gov — House Report 119‑267 (CBO and background)[5]govinfo.gov — House Report 119‑267 – Minority Views on NPC authorship
• Senate control and committee leadership (party division; ENR leadership). [2]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate Party Division – 119th Congress[3]energy.senate.gov — Senate ENR: Heinrich (Ranking) & Lee (Chair) Announce 119th…
• Leadership context: Thune as Majority Leader. [9]Sen. John Thune (official) — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Le…
• House Energy & Commerce chairmanship (Guthrie) and sponsor messaging (Latta). [14]House Energy & Commerce (Republicans) — Energy & Commerce (House): Chairman Gut…[15]Office of Rep. Bob Latta — Rep. Bob Latta press release: House Passes Latta’s R…
• Executive branch/NPC context (DOE/NPC materials; Energy Secretary confirmation). [17]Department of Energy — DOE: National Petroleum Council — mission and FACA status[16]Associated Press — AP: Senate confirms Chris Wright as Energy Secretary
• Stakeholder position: AFPM statement supporting H.R. 3109. [18]AFPM — AFPM statement supporting the REFINER Act