Analyses / Whip Count Analysis / 119 · HR 3616 Whip Count Analysis

119-HR-3616 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

119 · HR 3616 Reliable Power Act

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Reliable Power ActThis bill directs the electric reliability organization (i.e., the North American Electric Reliability Corporation) to conduct annual long-term assessments of the reliability of...

House: narrow GOP majority, closed rule adopted 215–209, E&C reported 28–23—expect near party-line passage. Senate: GOP 53–47 but 60-vote cloture and Thune’s commitment to preserve filibuster make standalone passage unlikely absent a broader permitting/reliability package; ENR/EPW chairs are Republicans, White House pressing grid-reliability agenda; business/utilities backing (Chamber, APPA) provides leverage. [1]House GOP Cloakroom — Republican Cloakroom – Tuesday December 16th 2025[2]Library of Congress — All Actions - H.R.3616 | Congress.gov[3]Reuters — Republican disunity tests Johnson's grip on power as Congress enters…[4]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Party Division (119th Congress)[5]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — Heinrich, Lee Announce ENR Subcommittee Assignments…[6]U.S. Senate EPW Committee (Minority news) — Whitehouse, Capito Announce EPW Sub…[7]White House — Executive Order: Strengthening the Reliability and Security of th…[8]U.S. Chamber of Commerce — U.S. Chamber letter: Support for H.R. 3616, the Reli…[9]American Public Power Association — APPA policy page: Electric Reliability (sup…

Analyzed as
DC Insider
Published
18 Dec 2025
Updated
18 Dec 2025
Tags
whip-count · energy · FERC
Unvetted
01 · Section

Breakdown: expected support/opposition

Context: House GOP holds a fragile majority; the Rules Committee sent H.R. 3616 to the floor under a closed rule, and E&C reported it on party lines. Senate GOP majority is 53, but the 60‑vote filibuster threshold governs. [3]Reuters — Republican disunity tests Johnson's grip on power as Congress enters…[1]House GOP Cloakroom — Republican Cloakroom – Tuesday December 16th 2025[2]Library of Congress — All Actions - H.R.3616 | Congress.gov[4]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Party Division (119th Congress)

  • House outlook:
  • - Rule for H.R. 3616 adopted 215–209 under H.Res. 951 (closed rule; one MTR). That whip test suggests leadership can pass the bill with minimal GOP defections. [1]House GOP Cloakroom — Republican Cloakroom – Tuesday December 16th 2025[10]Congress.gov — Congressional Record – December 16, 2025 (Daily Digest extract)
  • - Energy & Commerce reported the bill 28–23; subcommittee 16–14—both near party-line. Expect floor passage roughly 215–222 YEAs, with Democrats largely unified NO. [2]Library of Congress — All Actions - H.R.3616 | Congress.gov
  • - Recent floor on a companion reliability bill (H.R. 3632) passed 222–202, indicating appetite in the conference to back the reliability package. [10]Congress.gov — Congressional Record – December 16, 2025 (Daily Digest extract)
  • Senate outlook:
  • - Republicans hold 53 seats, but cloture requires 60; Majority Leader Thune has publicly committed to preserving the filibuster. A clean bill is unlikely to clear 60 without material changes. [4]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Party Division (119th Congress)[11]AP News — 119th Congress Latest: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House speaker
  • - Committee terrain is favorable to movement (ENR Chair Mike Lee; EPW Chair Shelley Moore Capito), but floor math—not committee action—is the choke point. [5]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — Heinrich, Lee Announce ENR Subcommittee Assignments…[6]U.S. Senate EPW Committee (Minority news) — Whitehouse, Capito Announce EPW Sub…
  • - Procedural note: this policy is not reconcilable; it’s regulatory/structural, not budgetary—high Byrd Rule risk if attempted via reconciliation. [12]Congressional Research Service (Congress.gov) — CRS: The Budget Reconciliation…[13]Web search · turn 11 #1
House GOP majority (approx.)
220R seats
House DEM seats (approx.)
213D seats
Rule vote on H.Res. 951
215Yea (209 Nay)
E&C full committee report vote
28Yea (23 Nay)
Senate GOP seats
53of 100
Votes needed to invoke cloture
60ayes
02 · Section

Key legislators (pivots and proof points)

Members with leverage or volatility based on caucus role, committee turf, or district profile.

  • House
  • - Troy Balderson (R‑OH): sponsor; aligned with E&C GOP reliability push. Moves with committee and leadership—anchor vote. [14]Library of Congress — H.R.3616 - Reliable Power Act | Congress.gov
  • - Brett Guthrie (R‑KY): E&C Chair; controls committee messaging and floor managing—strong yes. [15]Web search · turn 2 #1[16]Web search · turn 2 #4
  • - Frank Pallone (D‑NJ): E&C Ranking; leading the caucus case that GOP reliability bills encroach on EPA/Clean Air Act—organizing opposition. [17]House E&C Democrats — Energy & Commerce Democrats: Pallone blasts GOP Clean Air…
  • - Brian Fitzpatrick (R‑PA): Problem Solvers Caucus co‑chair; swing‑district brand and PSC permitting interest make him the most likely high‑profile GOP ask for carve‑outs but still a probable yes given the closed rule signal. [18]Office of Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick — Fitzpatrick reelected Problem Solvers Caucus…[1]House GOP Cloakroom — Republican Cloakroom – Tuesday December 16th 2025
  • - Don Bacon (R‑NE): represents NE‑02 (D+3 PVI); typically pragmatic—watch for message amendments or statements, but likely stays with leadership if the vote is framed as reliability. [19]Wikipedia — Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district (PVI D+3)
  • Senate
  • - John Thune (R‑SD): as Majority Leader sets floor timing; has vowed to preserve filibuster—implies any path needs bipartisan buy‑in or packaging. [11]AP News — 119th Congress Latest: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House speaker
  • - Mike Lee (R‑UT) and Shelley Moore Capito (R‑WV): ENR/EPW chairs; can advance a Senate companion and negotiate contours, but cannot solve 60‑vote math alone. [5]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — Heinrich, Lee Announce ENR Subcommittee Assignments…[6]U.S. Senate EPW Committee (Minority news) — Whitehouse, Capito Announce EPW Sub…
  • - Susan Collins (R‑ME), Lisa Murkowski (R‑AK), Bill Cassidy (R‑LA), Todd Young (R‑IN), Jerry Moran (R‑KS): GOP moderates to watch on any perceived “veto” of sister agencies; their comfort level will shape how much the preclearance language must be softened. (Inference based on typical cross‑aisle posture; not public positions on H.R. 3616.)
  • - Potential Democratic gets: limited. With Manchin/Tester gone and caucus leaders attacking related GOP air/emissions efforts, the default is unified NO unless the “Commission must find no significant negative impact” clause is diluted to consultation/reporting. [17]House E&C Democrats — Energy & Commerce Democrats: Pallone blasts GOP Clean Air…
03 · Section

Leadership stance and procedural dynamics

Where leaders sit—and what tools they have—will decide the path.

  • House GOP leadership: Speaker Mike Johnson has floor control; closed rule adopted suggests sufficient conference discipline for passage. Expect one MTR, then final passage before adjournment. [11]AP News — 119th Congress Latest: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House speaker[1]House GOP Cloakroom — Republican Cloakroom – Tuesday December 16th 2025
  • White House: The administration is prioritizing grid reliability (EO directing DOE to expedite 202(c) emergency orders; DOE report warning of rising outage risk). That posture increases pressure on Senate Republicans to try to move a version, and gives business cover. [7]White House — Executive Order: Strengthening the Reliability and Security of th…[20]Web search · turn 10 #1[21]Web search · turn 10 #3
  • Interest groups: American Public Power Association backs H.R. 3616; the U.S. Chamber sent a pro‑passage letter this week. Environmental stakeholders are signaling opposition to conferring de facto veto power to FERC. [9]American Public Power Association — APPA policy page: Electric Reliability (sup…[22]American Public Power Association — APPA: House Subcommittee Passes Reliability…[8]U.S. Chamber of Commerce — U.S. Chamber letter: Support for H.R. 3616, the Reli…[23]Web search · turn 7 #7
  • Senate procedure: With 53–47 control and a maintained filibuster, standalone passage is a tall order. Reconciliation is not viable; the Byrd Rule would likely deem the core provisions extraneous. Any viable route is as part of a negotiated reliability/permitting package with offsets for Democrats (e.g., transmission siting, clean‑energy provisions). [4]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Party Division (119th Congress)[12]Congressional Research Service (Congress.gov) — CRS: The Budget Reconciliation…
04 · Section

Assessment: likelihood of passage

Bottom line judgement on floor outcomes, timing, and the realistic paths.

  • House (near‑term): High likelihood of passage under the closed rule, with final YEAs in the mid‑teens over 200 and Dems near‑unified NO. Confidence: high. [1]House GOP Cloakroom — Republican Cloakroom – Tuesday December 16th 2025[2]Library of Congress — All Actions - H.R.3616 | Congress.gov
  • Senate (standalone): Low likelihood of clearing 60. Committees can report, but cloture is the roadblock. Confidence: high. [4]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Party Division (119th Congress)
  • Senate (as part of a package): Moderate if the “Commission finding” is softened to consultation plus mandatory agency response, paired with permitting/transmission sweeteners. Confidence: moderate. (Strategy inference.)
  • Clock/timing: With House rule adopted Dec 16, floor action can conclude this week; Senate action would slip to winter work periods and likely align with any broader energy/permitting negotiations window. [1]House GOP Cloakroom — Republican Cloakroom – Tuesday December 16th 2025
05 · Section

Sourcing (load‑bearing items)

Primary references for status, leadership/control, committee actions, and stakeholder positions.

  • Bill status, reports, actions: Congress.gov entries for H.R. 3616 (overview, actions, reports). [14]Library of Congress — H.R.3616 - Reliable Power Act | Congress.gov[2]Library of Congress — All Actions - H.R.3616 | Congress.gov[25]Congress.gov — H. Rept. 119-302 – Reliable Power Act (committee report excerpt)
  • House floor rule vote and summary: Republican Cloakroom; Congressional Record daily digest. [1]House GOP Cloakroom — Republican Cloakroom – Tuesday December 16th 2025[10]Congress.gov — Congressional Record – December 16, 2025 (Daily Digest extract)
  • Chamber control and leadership: Reuters/AP on House margin; AP/SDPB/NYP/US Senate history page for Senate majority and Thune’s stance. [3]Reuters — Republican disunity tests Johnson's grip on power as Congress enters…[11]AP News — 119th Congress Latest: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House speaker[26]Web search · turn 9 #0[4]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Party Division (119th Congress)
  • Committee chairs: ENR (Mike Lee) and EPW (Shelley Moore Capito) public pages/releases. [5]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — Heinrich, Lee Announce ENR Subcommittee Assignments…[6]U.S. Senate EPW Committee (Minority news) — Whitehouse, Capito Announce EPW Sub…
  • Interest‑group positions: APPA summaries/issue page; U.S. Chamber letter supporting H.R. 3616. [22]American Public Power Association — APPA: House Subcommittee Passes Reliability…[9]American Public Power Association — APPA policy page: Electric Reliability (sup…[8]U.S. Chamber of Commerce — U.S. Chamber letter: Support for H.R. 3616, the Reli…
  • Reliability backdrop: NERC Winter Reliability Assessment coverage (S&P Global). [24]S&P Global Commodity Insights — S&P Global: NERC reliability assessment anticip…
  • Reconciliation constraints: CRS on the Byrd Rule. [12]Congressional Research Service (Congress.gov) — CRS: The Budget Reconciliation…
  • Problem Solvers/swing context: Fitzpatrick PSC leadership; NE‑02 PVI for Bacon’s district. [18]Office of Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick — Fitzpatrick reelected Problem Solvers Caucus…[19]Wikipedia — Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district (PVI D+3)
  • Administration posture: White House EO/fact sheet; DOE reliability/security report. [7]White House — Executive Order: Strengthening the Reliability and Security of th…[20]Web search · turn 10 #1[21]Web search · turn 10 #3
Sources cited
  1. [1] Republican Cloakroom – Tuesday December 16th 2025 House GOP Cloakroom
  2. [2] All Actions - H.R.3616 | Congress.gov Library of Congress
  3. [3] Republican disunity tests Johnson's grip on power as Congress enters election year Reuters
  4. [4] U.S. Senate: Party Division (119th Congress) U.S. Senate
  5. [5] Heinrich, Lee Announce ENR Subcommittee Assignments (chair/Ranking) U.S. Senate ENR Committee
  6. [6] Whitehouse, Capito Announce EPW Subcommittee Assignments (EPW chair) U.S. Senate EPW Committee (Minority news)
  7. [7] Executive Order: Strengthening the Reliability and Security of the U.S. Electric Grid White House
  8. [8] U.S. Chamber letter: Support for H.R. 3616, the Reliable Power Act U.S. Chamber of Commerce
  9. [9] APPA policy page: Electric Reliability (support for H.R. 3616) American Public Power Association
  10. [10] Congressional Record – December 16, 2025 (Daily Digest extract) Congress.gov
  11. [11] 119th Congress Latest: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House speaker AP News
  12. [12] CRS: The Budget Reconciliation Process – The Senate’s “Byrd Rule” Congressional Research Service (Congress.gov)
  13. [13] Web search · turn 11 #1
  14. [14] H.R.3616 - Reliable Power Act | Congress.gov Library of Congress
  15. [15] Web search · turn 2 #1
  16. [16] Web search · turn 2 #4
  17. [17] Energy & Commerce Democrats: Pallone blasts GOP Clean Air Act rollbacks (context) House E&C Democrats
  18. [18] Fitzpatrick reelected Problem Solvers Caucus co‑chair (119th) Office of Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick
  19. [19] Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district (PVI D+3) Wikipedia
  20. [20] Web search · turn 10 #1
  21. [21] Web search · turn 10 #3
  22. [22] APPA: House Subcommittee Passes Reliability Bill Supported by APPA American Public Power Association
  23. [23] Web search · turn 7 #7
  24. [24] S&P Global: NERC reliability assessment anticipates 2.5% spike in winter peak demand S&P Global Commodity Insights
  25. [25] H. Rept. 119-302 – Reliable Power Act (committee report excerpt) Congress.gov
  26. [26] Web search · turn 9 #0

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