119-HR-1993 Corporate Impact Analysis

Summary

What it does: H.R. 1993 directs the U.S. Mint to issue up to 50,000 $5 gold coins and 400,000 $1 silver coins during calendar year 2028 to commemorate the 25th anniversary of the September 11 attacks, with per‑coin surcharges of $35 (gold) and $10 (silver) to support operations and maintenance at the National September 11 Memorial & Museum; coins may be sold in proof/uncirculated finishes and via bulk/prepaid orders. [1]GovInfo (GPO) — H.R. 1993 (IH) — 25th Anniversary of 9/11 Commemorative Coin Ac…

Guardrails: By statute, commemorative programs are limited to two per calendar year and surcharges cannot be paid until the Mint has recovered all program costs; the Mint also prices precious‑metal numismatic products using a published grid tied to bullion prices and states its numismatic programs operate at no taxpayer cost. [2]U.S. House (OLRC) — 31 U.S.C. § 5112 — Denominations, specifications, and desig…

Headline impacts: Economic effects concentrate in the small numismatic niche; social effects flow through incremental museum funding and education; environmental effects are de minimis compared with U.S. annual gold/silver production. Overall budget risk is low given the cost‑recovery and program‑cap constraints. [3]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO GGD‑96‑113 — U.S. Mint: Commemorati…

Economic Effects

Impacts are narrow and largely depend on collector demand, Mint pricing, and statutory safeguards.

• Revenue channel and ceiling: If every coin sold, surcharges could total about $5.75 million ($1.75M gold + $4.0M silver). This is an upper bound; actual transfers depend on demand and Mint cost recovery. [1]GovInfo (GPO) — H.R. 1993 (IH) — 25th Anniversary of 9/11 Commemorative Coin Ac…
• Cost‑recovery precondition: Under 31 U.S.C. § 5134(f), the Mint may not remit any surcharge until it has recovered “all cost[s]” of the program (dies, labor, marketing, overhead, shipping). This can delay or shrink disbursements in weak‑sales scenarios. [4]GovInfo (GPO) — 31 U.S.C. § 5134 — Numismatic Public Enterprise Fund; condition…
• Program cap and market dilution guardrail: Federal law limits commemoratives to two programs per calendar year; if 2028 issuance slots are already committed, H.R. 1993 could be crowded out or displace another program. [2]U.S. House (OLRC) — 31 U.S.C. § 5112 — Denominations, specifications, and desig…
• Mint pricing and demand elasticity: Precious‑metal numismatic prices are set via a published grid linked to LBMA metals averages; volatility can raise retail prices and suppress take‑up, which in turn reduces surcharges. [5]United States Mint — U.S. Mint – Product Pricing (precious‑metal numismatic pri…
• Sales variability, historical context: Recent commemoratives show wide dispersion in sell‑through and surcharge outcomes; for example, Treasury OIG reported 2024 Greatest Generation program surcharges of about $0.8M, and the Mint’s historical database shows some programs far from maximum mintages. [6]oig.treasury.gov
• Distribution mechanics: The bill permits bulk and prepaid sales at discount; in practice, Mint bulk programs channel inventory to dealers for market making and price discovery. [1]GovInfo (GPO) — H.R. 1993 (IH) — 25th Anniversary of 9/11 Commemorative Coin Ac…
• Budget scoring precedent: Prior commemorative coin acts have often been recorded as having no significant net deficit effect due to offsetting receipts and cost‑recovery rules. [7]congress.gov
• Macroeconomic footprint: Given the small maximum mintage and numismatic focus, broader employment, income, and market effects are negligible; statutory cost‑recovery and the revolving Numismatic Public Enterprise Fund further insulate appropriations. [4]GovInfo (GPO) — 31 U.S.C. § 5134 — Numismatic Public Enterprise Fund; condition…

Social Effects

Effects are concentrated in cultural memory, education, and nonprofit finance rather than direct services to survivors or responders.

• Beneficiary purpose: Surcharges are earmarked to support operations and maintenance of the National September 11 Memorial & Museum, which reports multi‑million‑visitor engagement and extensive education programming. [1]GovInfo (GPO) — H.R. 1993 (IH) — 25th Anniversary of 9/11 Commemorative Coin Ac…
• Mission alignment: The Museum’s stated role is to document the attacks and their continuing impact; coin program narratives can reinforce public remembrance and curriculum usage. [8]National September 11 Memorial & Museum — National September 11 Memorial & Muse…
• Scale of potential support: Even full sell‑through (~$5.75M before any timing effects) would represent a modest increment relative to a large urban museum’s annual operating needs; museum 990s/annuals underscore ongoing reliance on diversified philanthropy and earned income. [9]National September 11 Memorial & Museum — National September 11 Memorial & Muse…
• Clarifying scope: This bill does not fund the WTC Health Program (medical monitoring/treatment for eligible responders and survivors); that federally administered program operates separately. [10]Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — CDC/NIOSH — World Trade Center Hea…
• Access/equity: Numismatic products are sold at premiums above face value; uptake typically skews to hobbyist/collector channels rather than broad household participation, limiting distributive impacts. [5]United States Mint — U.S. Mint – Product Pricing (precious‑metal numismatic pri…

Environmental Effects

Material use is precisely specified; absolute volumes are small relative to U.S. annual mining output.

• Material intensity: If fully minted, coins would embody roughly 0.376 metric tons of fine gold and 9.623 metric tons of fine silver based on statutory weights and 90% fineness. [1]GovInfo (GPO) — H.R. 1993 (IH) — 25th Anniversary of 9/11 Commemorative Coin Ac…
• Context vs. U.S. mining: USGS estimates 2025 U.S. mine production at ~160 t gold and ~1,100 t silver; the program would therefore represent ~0.24% of annual U.S. gold and ~0.9% of silver output if all coins sell. [11]U.S. Geological Survey — USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 — PDF (Silver ch…
• Operational footprint: The Mint characterizes numismatic programs as self‑funding and not struck for general circulation, implying limited incremental manufacturing runs compared with circulating coinage; facility energy/EMS practices further constrain impacts. [12]United States Mint — United States Mint — FY 2025 Annual Report (numismatic pro…

Temporal Analysis

Short‑run effects occur around the 2028 sales window; longer‑run effects center on institutional support and commemoration.

• Immediate (2028): Design/review, marketing, and collector sales; surcharge accrual begins with each sale but payment to the Museum is gated until cost recovery is demonstrated. [1]GovInfo (GPO) — H.R. 1993 (IH) — 25th Anniversary of 9/11 Commemorative Coin Ac…
• Medium term (post‑2028): Depending on demand and margins, surcharge transfers may continue as audit‑verified payments until proceeds are exhausted; federal audit and reporting conditions apply to the recipient. [4]GovInfo (GPO) — 31 U.S.C. § 5134 — Numismatic Public Enterprise Fund; condition…
• Long term: Incremental, reputation‑based benefits (education content, exhibits, and remembrance events) supported by the Museum; no durable macroeconomic or regulatory effects expected beyond the one‑year issuance. [9]National September 11 Memorial & Museum — National September 11 Memorial & Muse…

Unintended Consequences / Risks

• Program‑cap contention: The two‑program annual cap can crowd out themes or compress marketing windows, potentially diluting demand across programs in the same year. [2]U.S. House (OLRC) — 31 U.S.C. § 5112 — Denominations, specifications, and desig…
• Price sensitivity: Gold/silver price spikes feed directly into Mint retail prices via the pricing grid, which can depress take‑rates and reduce surcharge yield. [5]United States Mint — U.S. Mint – Product Pricing (precious‑metal numismatic pri…
• Channel concentration: Heavy reliance on dealers/bulk purchasers can front‑load sales but exposes outcomes to secondary‑market dynamics (e.g., quick sell‑outs followed by aftermarket softness). [13]United States Mint — United States Mint — Numismatic Bulk Purchase Program
• Historical variance: GAO has documented periods of over‑issuance and unprofitable programs prior to reforms; while today’s guardrails mitigate risks, demand uncertainty remains intrinsic. [3]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO GGD‑96‑113 — U.S. Mint: Commemorati…

Assessment

Analytical stance (not advocacy).

Neutral. For the federal government, the program is designed to be budget‑neutral with limited operational risk due to statutory cost‑recovery and the two‑program cap. For the beneficiary, upside ranges from modest to meaningful depending on sell‑through; for markets and the environment, effects are immaterial at macro scale. Compliance obligations (recipient audits) and pricing‑volatility exposure are the main execution risks. [4]GovInfo (GPO) — 31 U.S.C. § 5134 — Numismatic Public Enterprise Fund; condition…