119-HR-5857 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

Breakdown: expected support and opposition

Initial placement: House Energy & Commerce (E&C). GOP controls the House with a slim edge; Democrats likely unify for the bill, while most Republicans lean skeptical of expanding FTC authority and DMCA exemptions. Senate Republicans hold the majority and the filibuster stays in force (60‑vote bar). [5]House Radio-TV Gallery — House Radio-TV Gallery: Party Breakdown (updated Sept.…[2]Reuters — Trump's Republicans reelect Mike Johnson US House Speaker despite dis…[1]SDPB — Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority Leader as 119th Congress sworn in

• House Democrats: High likelihood of unified support on E&C and the floor; the sponsor (Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez) previously led an agricultural right‑to‑repair bill in the 118th. [6]Office of Rep. Gluesenkamp Perez — Gluesenkamp Perez press release (2023): Agri…[7]Congress.gov — H.R. 5604 (118th): Agricultural Right to Repair Act – Text
• House Republicans: Mixed; some openness on right‑to‑repair exists but is centered on automotive (REPAIR Act, H.R. 1566) rather than agricultural equipment. E&C GOP leadership sets the agenda and is aligned with a deregulatory posture. [8]Congress.gov — H.R. 1566 (119th): REPAIR Act – All Information[3]House Energy & Commerce Committee (Majority) — Chairman Guthrie Announces House…
• Gatekeeping in E&C: Full Committee Chair Brett Guthrie (R‑KY) and the Commerce, Manufacturing & Trade Subcommittee (Chair Gus Bilirakis, R‑FL) control hearings/markups. Current subcommittee rosters include several Republicans from farm‑heavy states (e.g., ID, ND, OR, MI), making intra‑GOP divisions possible but not assured. [9]House Energy & Commerce Committee (Majority) — E&C Republican Subcommittee Assi…
• Senate outlook: GOP 53–47; Majority Leader John Thune has reaffirmed the filibuster, and Senate Commerce is chaired by Ted Cruz. Without strong GOP co‑sponsors, a House bill broadening FTC powers/DMCA exceptions is unlikely to be taken up. [1]SDPB — Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority Leader as 119th Congress sworn in[4]Senate Commerce Committee — Sen. Cruz Designated Chairman of Senate Commerce, S…
• Interest‑group environment: Farm Bureau has MOUs with major OEMs (Deere, CNH, AGCO, Kubota, CLAAS), reducing perceived need for federal mandates; NAEDA and OEMs cite the MOUs as a private‑sector solution and oppose broad federal legislation. NFU/PIRG continue to press for statutory enforcement. [10]American Farm Bureau Federation — AFBF: Right to Repair (MOUs with major ag OEM…[11]DTN/Progressive Farmer — DTN/Progressive Farmer: AFBF signs Right-to-Repair MOU…[12]Farm Equipment (NAEDA messaging) — Dealer Legislative Priorities: Farm Bill, Ta…
• Regulatory backdrop: The FTC and several states are actively litigating against Deere over repair restrictions; a June 2025 ruling kept the case alive, sustaining external pressure on OEMs independent of legislation. [13]Federal Trade Commission — FTC press release: FTC, States Sue Deere & Company[14]Reuters — Deere must face FTC's antitrust lawsuit over repair costs, US judge r…
• State context: Colorado enacted an agricultural right‑to‑repair law effective January 1, 2024; it serves as the working model cited by advocates and may influence Colorado delegation members on E&C. [15]Colorado General Assembly — Colorado HB23-1011: Consumer Right To Repair Agricu…

Key legislators and pivotal votes

Pivots are defined by agenda control (chairs/leaders), committee jurisdiction, and district incentives (farm‑heavy states or ag‑dealer presence). Public positions are sparse; leverage derives primarily from roles and constituencies.

• House gatekeepers: Brett Guthrie (E&C Chair) and Gus Bilirakis (Commerce, Manufacturing & Trade Subcommittee Chair) decide if H.R. 5857 gets a hearing/markup; Ranking Member Frank Pallone leads unified Democratic support. [3]House Energy & Commerce Committee (Majority) — Chairman Guthrie Announces House…[9]House Energy & Commerce Committee (Majority) — E&C Republican Subcommittee Assi…
• Bill sponsors/allies: Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (sponsor) and Rep. Joe Neguse (original co‑sponsor) bring prior track records on agricultural right‑to‑repair. Expect coordinated Democratic messaging; GOP co‑sponsors will be determinative. [6]Office of Rep. Gluesenkamp Perez — Gluesenkamp Perez press release (2023): Agri…
• Potential House swing Republicans (committee): Members from farm‑intensive states on the Commerce, Manufacturing & Trade Subcommittee—e.g., Russ Fulcher (ID), Julie Fedorchak (ND‑AL), Cliff Bentz (OR), John James (MI)—face cross‑pressures from farm operators vs. dealer networks. Watch their posture in any subcommittee hearing. [9]House Energy & Commerce Committee (Majority) — E&C Republican Subcommittee Assi…
• Off‑committee moderates: Given the House’s slim margin, pragmatic Republicans from ag states (e.g., Nebraska’s Don Bacon) could matter on the floor if leadership permits a vote; however, leadership control and Rules Committee strategy make floor exposure unlikely without prior buy‑in. [5]House Radio-TV Gallery — House Radio-TV Gallery: Party Breakdown (updated Sept.…
• Senate gatekeepers: Majority Leader John Thune (floor time, cloture strategy) and Senate Commerce Chair Ted Cruz (hearing/markup). Cruz’s portfolio and public focus suggest limited appetite to expand FTC authorities; absent notable GOP co‑sponsorship, Senate action is improbable. [1]SDPB — Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority Leader as 119th Congress sworn in[4]Senate Commerce Committee — Sen. Cruz Designated Chairman of Senate Commerce, S…

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

Outcome drivers are institutional: majority control, committee chairs, and chamber rules.

• House leadership: Speaker Mike Johnson governs with a narrow majority and has demonstrated willingness to intervene to secure procedural unity. Moving a Democratic consumer‑protection bill through E&C without GOP authorship runs counter to priority sequencing; Johnson’s slim margin amplifies the majority’s aversion to intra‑conference splits. [2]Reuters — Trump's Republicans reelect Mike Johnson US House Speaker despite dis…
• Committee leverage: E&C Republicans set agenda and framing (FTC oversight, ‘patchwork’ preemption). The existence of a GOP‑branded right‑to‑repair vehicle (auto‑focused REPAIR Act) provides a rhetorical alternative to broad ag mandates. [3]House Energy & Commerce Committee (Majority) — Chairman Guthrie Announces House…[8]Congress.gov — H.R. 1566 (119th): REPAIR Act – All Information
• Senate rules: With Republicans at 53 seats and the filibuster intact, 60 votes are required. Even if the House advanced a bill, Senate Commerce under Cruz is an effective backstop against a broad FTC/DMCA package. [1]SDPB — Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority Leader as 119th Congress sworn in
• Jurisdictional cautions: H.R. 5857’s 17 U.S.C. §1201 carve‑outs invite House Judiciary/Senate Judiciary interests; multiple referral risks slow momentum. Not reconciliation‑eligible, so no Byrd‑Rule path to bypass 60 votes.

Assessment: likelihood of passage

Bottom‑line read for the 119th Congress (through December 2026).

• House committee action (hearing/markup): Low. Expect, at most, an oversight hearing in the Commerce, Manufacturing & Trade Subcommittee that pairs Farm Bureau/OEM/NAEDA with NFU/PIRG and references the ongoing FTC–Deere case. [9]House Energy & Commerce Committee (Majority) — E&C Republican Subcommittee Assi…[13]Federal Trade Commission — FTC press release: FTC, States Sue Deere & Company
• House floor passage: Very low without GOP co‑leads and substantial narrowing (e.g., codifying select MOU access, explicit emissions/safety protections, limited FTC rulemaking). [10]American Farm Bureau Federation — AFBF: Right to Repair (MOUs with major ag OEM…
• Senate passage: Very low. 60‑vote hurdle plus a skeptical Senate Commerce chair. [1]SDPB — Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority Leader as 119th Congress sworn in[4]Senate Commerce Committee — Sen. Cruz Designated Chairman of Senate Commerce, S…
• Overall enactment (standalone): Low confidence of passage this Congress. The only plausible path is as part of a negotiated, industry‑friendly package that preempts state patchworks and mirrors MOU contours—still a heavy lift under current gatekeepers. [10]American Farm Bureau Federation — AFBF: Right to Repair (MOUs with major ag OEM…

• Confidence: Moderate (institutional dynamics are stable; whip math could shift only if GOP authorship emerges or OEMs publicly back codification of MOU terms).