119-HR-7389 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

Breakdown: where the votes are

This bill cleared House Energy & Commerce 48–1 on May 21, 2026, signaling broad bipartisan interest. The toughest friction ahead is the large expansion of FMVSS exemptions and the one‑year “deemed approved” clock. [1]docs.house.gov — E&C Full Committee Roll Call (H.R. 7389) – 48–1 (May 21, 2026)

• House GOP: Leadership has control of a narrow majority (as of May 20, 2026: 217 R / 212 D / 1 I / 5 vacancies), and the committee vote suggests most Republicans will back the package on the floor. [2]U.S. House Radio–TV Gallery — House Radio-TV Gallery — Party Breakdown (updated…
• House Democrats: Many E&C Democrats supported the bill in markup, but safety‑community pushback on exemptions (jumping from 2,500 to 90,000 vehicles and adding a one‑year deadline with deemed approval) will peel off a progressive bloc unless those provisions are trimmed. [1]docs.house.gov — E&C Full Committee Roll Call (H.R. 7389) – 48–1 (May 21, 2026)
• Industry and allied groups: Aftermarket and suppliers are leaning in — SEMA touts added right‑to‑repair/ADAS calibration language; tire makers (USTMA) back tire‑standards updates; MEMA flagged the NCAP office/advisory structure as a priority. These endorsements help with pro‑manufacturing Republicans and several moderates. [3]SEMA — SEMA press release — Right‑to‑Modify/ADAS language advancing in H.R. 7389
• Consumer and safety groups: Advocates for Highway & Auto Safety and Consumer Reports have warned against the exemption expansion and timelines, giving cover to Democratic skeptics (and a few privacy‑minded Republicans) to demand changes. [4]Advocates for Highway & Auto Safety — Advocates for Highway & Auto Safety coali…
• Senate landscape: Republicans hold the chamber; Sen. John Thune is Majority Leader, and Sen. Ted Cruz chairs Commerce with Sen. Maria Cantwell as Ranking Member. The committee can move the bill, but final passage likely needs bipartisan amendments to clear 60. [5]U.S. Senate — Senate.gov — Majority/Minority Leaders (119th Congress)

Key legislators and swing blocs

Focus your vote‑moving on members who are cross‑pressured by auto‑industry ties, tech‑safety posture, or committee leverage.

• Senate Commerce Democrats: Gary Peters (MI) — auto‑state jobs and industry relations but vocal on safety data; Amy Klobuchar (MN), Brian Schatz (HI), and Jacky Rosen (NV) — consumer‑protection and tech portfolios; all sit on Commerce and will shape guardrails. [6]commerce.senate.gov
• Senate Commerce Republicans: Todd Young (IN) and Jerry Moran (KS) — pro‑innovation moderates open to compromise language; Shelley Moore Capito (WV) — leadership‑adjacent, pragmatic; all are positioned to broker narrower exemption and reporting provisions. [6]commerce.senate.gov
• House floor moderates: The broad, bipartisan 48–1 E&C vote suggests New Dem/Blue Dog and Problem Solvers members are gettable if the exemption language is tightened; GOP skeptics are few but watch privacy‑/process‑oriented members. [1]docs.house.gov — E&C Full Committee Roll Call (H.R. 7389) – 48–1 (May 21, 2026)
• External validators that matter to swing votes: aftermarket/repair (SEMA), suppliers (MEMA), and tire makers (USTMA) on the “pro‑manufacturing” side; Advocates for Highway & Auto Safety and Consumer Reports on the “safety first” side. [3]SEMA — SEMA press release — Right‑to‑Modify/ADAS language advancing in H.R. 7389

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

Control points and leverage that determine the bill’s path.

• House control: Speaker Mike Johnson presides over a narrow GOP majority, and the Radio‑TV Gallery’s party count (updated May 20) shows Republicans with 217 seats — enough to move the bill with a structured rule if the conference stays mostly unified. [7]Congressional Record (LOC) — Congressional Record entry listing Mike Johnson as…
• House committee posture: H.R. 7389 is Chairman Brett Guthrie’s package; the 48–1 committee tally gives the Rule‑writing team confidence to bring it up in June/July. [8]docs.house.gov — Chairman Brett Guthrie opening statement (Jan. 15, 2025)
• Senate gatekeepers: Majority Leader John Thune controls floor time; Commerce Chair Ted Cruz can run a markup. Ranking Member Maria Cantwell and safety‑focused Democrats (Markey, Blumenthal) have already been pressing NHTSA on AV oversight — leverage they’ll use to demand tighter language. Cloture math (60 votes) all but ensures amendments. [5]U.S. Senate — Senate.gov — Majority/Minority Leaders (119th Congress)
• Administration posture: DOT/NHTSA have emphasized accelerating AV exemptions and streamlining processes — helpful tailwinds for the House bill’s approach, even as safety groups object. No formal SAP located yet. [9]U.S. Department of Transportation — USDOT press — Secretary Duffy streamlines A…
• Vehicle strategy: E&C has treated H.R. 7389 as a “safety title” for broader surface‑transportation work; Senate passage is more plausible if a narrowed version hitches a ride on a larger package. [10]docs.house.gov — House E&C documents for the record — positioning H.R. 7389 as…

Assessment

Bottom line: strong House momentum; Senate needs trims and guardrails.

• House: Expect passage on the rule with a sizable bipartisan vote, anchored by the 48–1 committee show‑of‑force and GOP control. Timing: late June to July window. Confidence: high. [1]docs.house.gov — E&C Full Committee Roll Call (H.R. 7389) – 48–1 (May 21, 2026)
• Senate: Commerce can move a manager’s package, but floor clearance likely requires (a) reducing the FMVSS‑exemption cap; (b) tightening the “deemed approved” backstop; (c) adding transparency and NCAP‑linked consumer‑info pieces. Confidence: moderate if amended; low if the House text is taken as‑is. [12]U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, & Transportation — Senate Commerce…
• Conference/Endgame: If the Senate narrows the exemptions and beefs up data/reporting, a final package could ride an end‑of‑year vehicle. If not, the bill stalls at cloture. [10]docs.house.gov — House E&C documents for the record — positioning H.R. 7389 as…

What’s in H.R. 7389 driving the coalition split

• Creates an NCAP Office and advisory committee; mandates a recurring 36‑month rulemaking and research priority plan. [11]Library of Congress — Congress.gov — Text of H.R. 7389 (Motor Vehicle Moderniza…
• Raises 49 U.S.C. §30113 general‑exemption cap from 2,500 to 90,000 vehicles/year and imposes a one‑year decision clock with deemed approval — the central friction point. [11]Library of Congress — Congress.gov — Text of H.R. 7389 (Motor Vehicle Moderniza…
• Folds in aftermarket/repair and ADAS calibration workstreams pushed by SEMA; industry groups (USTMA, MEMA) back specific sections. [3]SEMA — SEMA press release — Right‑to‑Modify/ADAS language advancing in H.R. 7389
• Safety/consumer groups (Advocates, CR) warn the exemption expansion is premature without stronger standards and data transparency. [4]Advocates for Highway & Auto Safety — Advocates for Highway & Auto Safety coali…