119-HRES-827 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis
Republicans control the House and Senate in the 119th Congress; H.Res. 827 was introduced on October 24, 2025 and referred to Energy & Commerce and Education & the Workforce with 20 Democratic cosponsors and no Republicans. GOP leadership (Speaker Johnson/Majority Leader Scalise) and the relevant committee chairs (Guthrie, Walberg) control the gate. With the House out of session amid a shutdown and no bipartisan backing, leadership has no incentive to schedule it under suspension (two‑thirds needed). Precedent: identical Intersex Awareness Day resolutions in the 118th Congress never reached the floor. Net: near-zero odds of movement this session; likelihood of passage is low (high confidence). [1]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — party control and leadership[2]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — All Info — H.Res. 827 (119th): Intersex Aw…[3]house.gov — Energy & Commerce Committee — Meet the Chairman (Brett Guthrie)[4]house.gov — Education & the Workforce Committee — press page noting Chair Tim W…[5]Associated Press — AP: Speaker Johnson keeps House lawmakers away as shutdown d…[6]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: Suspension of the Rules:…[7]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — H.Res. 1552 (118th): Intersex Awareness Da…
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Breakdown: expected support and opposition
This is a nonbinding House simple resolution, non‑privileged and referred to two committees. Sponsor: Rep. Becca Balint; 20 listed cosponsors; latest action is referral on October 24, 2025. [2]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — All Info — H.Res. 827 (119th): Intersex Aw…
- Democrats: Strong support signal via Congressional Equality Caucus; Balint and Chair Mark Takano publicly announced the measure. Expect near‑unanimous Democratic backing if it reaches the floor. [8]U.S. House of Representatives — Rep. Balint press release: “Rep. Becca Balint a…
- Republicans: No GOP cosponsors as of October 28, 2025; majority leadership controls scheduling. With cultural‑issue positioning and lack of bipartisan buy‑in, conference support is unlikely. [2]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — All Info — H.Res. 827 (119th): Intersex Aw…[1]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — party control and leadership
- Committee posture: Referred to Energy & Commerce (health/consumer jurisdiction) and Education & the Workforce; both chaired by Republicans (Brett Guthrie; Tim Walberg). Chairs’ discretion and majority ratios make markup improbable absent bipartisan agreement. [2]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — All Info — H.Res. 827 (119th): Intersex Aw…[3]house.gov — Energy & Commerce Committee — Meet the Chairman (Brett Guthrie)[4]house.gov — Education & the Workforce Committee — press page noting Chair Tim W…
- Floor path: As a non‑privileged resolution, practical route is suspension of the rules, which requires two‑thirds. With only Democratic support, the math is prohibitive. [6]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: Suspension of the Rules:…
- Calendar realities: The House has been kept out of session for weeks during the shutdown, further reducing floor time for commemoratives. [5]Associated Press — AP: Speaker Johnson keeps House lawmakers away as shutdown d…
Cosponsors (as filed)
20
Committees of referral
2
Introduced
2025Oct 24
Majority control (119th)
2GOP controls House & Senate
02 · Section
Key legislators and leverage points
Given partisan control and procedure, gatekeepers—not potential crossover votes—determine the fate here.
- Speaker Mike Johnson (R): Controls floor schedule; amid the shutdown has limited House sessions, deprioritizing symbolic items without bipartisan support. [1]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — party control and leadership[5]Associated Press — AP: Speaker Johnson keeps House lawmakers away as shutdown d…
- Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R): Sets the weekly agenda with the Speaker; no incentive to place a partisan‑coded resolution on the suspension calendar. [1]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — party control and leadership
- Rules Committee Chair Virginia Foxx (R): If leadership wanted a special rule (instead of suspension), Rules would need to act; current majority composition makes that unlikely for a Democratic‑only resolution. [9]house.gov — House Rules Committee — Chairwoman Foxx Opening Remarks (organizati…
- Energy & Commerce Chair Brett Guthrie (R): Jurisdictional gatekeeper; no public indication of action, and majority priorities lie elsewhere. [3]house.gov — Energy & Commerce Committee — Meet the Chairman (Brett Guthrie)
- Education & the Workforce Chair Tim Walberg (R): Secondary referral; similar posture to E&C—no signal of markup. [4]house.gov — Education & the Workforce Committee — press page noting Chair Tim W…
- Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D): Can provide caucus support but lacks procedural tools to force floor consideration absent discharge or leadership consent. [1]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — party control and leadership
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Leadership stance and procedural dynamics
Where this lives or dies is leadership’s willingness to devote floor time under suspension—and the votes to clear two‑thirds.
- Majority control: Republicans hold both chambers in the 119th Congress; House floor time is rationed for majority priorities. [1]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — party control and leadership
- Suspension mechanics: Non‑privileged measures typically move by suspension (Mondays–Wednesdays), require two‑thirds, and are used for broadly bipartisan items—this measure currently is not. [6]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: Suspension of the Rules:…
- Discharge option: Technically available for resolutions after 30 legislative days with 218 signatures, but rarely successful and time‑consuming—especially with the House intermittently out of session. [10]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: Discharge Procedure in t…[5]Associated Press — AP: Speaker Johnson keeps House lawmakers away as shutdown d…
- Precedent: Intersex Awareness Day resolutions in the 118th Congress (2023, 2024) were referred and never received floor consideration—an indicator of majority gatekeeping on this subject. [11]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — H.Res. 815 (118th): Intersex Awareness Day…[7]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — H.Res. 1552 (118th): Intersex Awareness Da…
- Current whip count signal: 20 cosponsors at filing, all Democrats; no GOP co‑signers; no committee notices scheduled. The equality coalition is engaged, but there’s no reported bipartisan whip effort. [2]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — All Info — H.Res. 827 (119th): Intersex Aw…[8]U.S. House of Representatives — Rep. Balint press release: “Rep. Becca Balint a…
04 · Section
Assessment: probability of passage
Bottom line from a process-and-votes perspective.
- Likelihood H.Res. 827 receives a committee markup in 2025: Low. GOP chairs and no bipartisan signal. [3]house.gov — Energy & Commerce Committee — Meet the Chairman (Brett Guthrie)[4]house.gov — Education & the Workforce Committee — press page noting Chair Tim W…
- Likelihood it reaches the floor in 2025: Low. House is rationing floor time during/after shutdown; leadership has not advanced comparable items previously. [5]Associated Press — AP: Speaker Johnson keeps House lawmakers away as shutdown d…[7]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — H.Res. 1552 (118th): Intersex Awareness Da…
- Likelihood it passes if called up under suspension: Very low. With only Democratic support visible, two‑thirds is out of reach. [6]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: Suspension of the Rules:…
- Overall likelihood of passage this session: Low (high confidence). Drivers: partisan control, committee gatekeeping, two‑thirds hurdle, and no Republican cosponsors. [1]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — party control and leadership[2]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — All Info — H.Res. 827 (119th): Intersex Aw…[6]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: Suspension of the Rules:…
05 · Section
Sourcing notes
Core facts drawn from official legislative records, committee pages, CRS procedure, and major outlets.
- Bill status, cosponsors, and referrals: Congress.gov entry for H.Res. 827. [2]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — All Info — H.Res. 827 (119th): Intersex Aw…
- Sponsor coalition messaging: Rep. Balint’s October 24, 2025 press release. [8]U.S. House of Representatives — Rep. Balint press release: “Rep. Becca Balint a…
- Majority control and House leadership (119th): 119th Congress overview. [1]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — party control and leadership
- Committee chairs (E&C; Education & the Workforce): committee sites. [3]house.gov — Energy & Commerce Committee — Meet the Chairman (Brett Guthrie)[4]house.gov — Education & the Workforce Committee — press page noting Chair Tim W…
- Floor procedure (suspension; discharge): CRS primers. [6]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: Suspension of the Rules:…[10]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: Discharge Procedure in t…
- Operational context (shutdown; House out of session): AP reporting. [5]Associated Press — AP: Speaker Johnson keeps House lawmakers away as shutdown d…
- Precedent resolutions (118th) with no floor action: Congress.gov entries for 2023/2024 Intersex Awareness Day resolutions. [11]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — H.Res. 815 (118th): Intersex Awareness Day…[7]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — H.Res. 1552 (118th): Intersex Awareness Da…
Sources cited
- [1] 119th United States Congress — party control and leadership Wikipedia
- [2] All Info — H.Res. 827 (119th): Intersex Awareness Day Resolution Congress.gov (Library of Congress)
- [3] Energy & Commerce Committee — Meet the Chairman (Brett Guthrie) house.gov
- [4] Education & the Workforce Committee — press page noting Chair Tim Walberg house.gov
- [5] AP: Speaker Johnson keeps House lawmakers away as shutdown drags; House out of session Associated Press
- [6] CRS: Suspension of the Rules: House Practice in the 118th Congress (R48650) Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov
- [7] H.Res. 1552 (118th): Intersex Awareness Day 2024 — status (no floor action) Congress.gov (Library of Congress)
- [8] Rep. Balint press release: “Rep. Becca Balint and Rep. Mark Takano Introduce Intersex Awareness Day Resolution” (Oct. 24, 2025) U.S. House of Representatives
- [9] House Rules Committee — Chairwoman Foxx Opening Remarks (organizational meeting) house.gov
- [10] CRS: Discharge Procedure in the House (R45920) Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov
- [11] H.Res. 815 (118th): Intersex Awareness Day 2023 — status (no floor action) Congress.gov (Library of Congress)
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