119-S-1321 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

Bill and Institutional Context

- Vehicle: S.1321 (Moab UMTRA Project Transition Act of 2025) — transfers the Moab UMTRA site to Grand County once DOE determines remedial action completion; retains needed water rights and bars reconveyance to private or nonprofit entities. House companion: H.R. 2681. [1]Library of Congress — Text - S.1321 — Moab UMTRA Project Transition Act of 2025…[5]Library of Congress — Text - H.R. 2681 — Moab UMTRA Project Transition Act of 2… - Status: Referred to Senate ENR; taken up in the ENR Subcommittee on Public Lands, Forests, and Mining during the 12/02/2025 legislative hearing. [2]Congress.gov — Senate ENR Subcommittee hearing listing (includes S.1321) - Gatekeepers: ENR Chair Mike Lee; Subcommittee Chair John Barrasso; Ranking Members Heinrich (full) and Cortez Masto (sub). GOP holds Senate and ENR gavels in the 119th. [3]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — Heinrich, Lee announce ENR subcommittee assignments…[4]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR Subcommittee on Public Lands, Forests, and Mini… - Macro environment: Republicans control both chambers; Thune is Senate Majority Leader and has publicly committed to preserving the filibuster (so most stand-alone bills still need UC or 60-vote time agreements). Johnson remains Speaker with a narrow GOP majority. [6]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Lea…[7]Associated Press — New Majority Leader Thune kicks off Senate session with pled…[8]Associated Press — 119th Congress Latest: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House…

• DOE EM indicates tailings removal is effectively complete and projects site closure in 2029; remaining work centers on groundwater and sub/off‑pile remediation — consistent with the bill’s trigger for conveyance after DOE determines remedial completion. [9]U.S. Dept. of Energy, Office of Environmental Management — Moab Project Marks M…[10]U.S. Dept. of Energy, Office of Environmental Management — Moab Uranium Mill Ta…
• Local alignment: Grand County Commission and City of Moab sent letters supporting transfer; Moab Chamber of Commerce voiced support. Local press also highlights the bill’s reconveyance prohibition. [11]The Times-Independent (Moab) — Bill introduced to transfer UMTRA site to Grand…[12]The Times-Independent (Moab) — Moab city sends letter supporting UMTRA transit…[13]Moab Sun News — Breaking: New bill would put Moab uranium site under local cont…
• Utah delegation unified: Senate sponsor John Curtis (R‑UT) with cosponsor Mike Lee (R‑UT); House sponsor Rep. Mike Kennedy (R‑UT) with full UT House GOP backing. [1]Library of Congress — Text - S.1321 — Moab UMTRA Project Transition Act of 2025…[14]Office of Rep. Mike Kennedy — Utah delegation release: Kennedy, Curtis lead bil…

Breakdown: Expected Support/Opposition

This is a parochial, non-appropriations land transfer keyed to DOE cleanup milestones, typically low-salience and bundled with other ENR items. Expect minimal organized opposition absent last‑minute holds. [2]Congress.gov — Senate ENR Subcommittee hearing listing (includes S.1321)

Notes: GOP Senate majority and Thune’s stated commitment to the filibuster imply reliance on unanimous consent or a time agreement for floor action; otherwise, this would consume scarce floor time. House movement most likely via suspension calendar once a Senate package moves. [7]Associated Press — New Majority Leader Thune kicks off Senate session with pled…

Key Legislators (swing/pivotal)

Pivots are the chairs/rankers who control agenda, plus Western-state Democrats who often broker terms on public-lands transfers.

• Sen. John Curtis (R‑UT), sponsor; newly sworn Senator from Utah; invested stakeholder; can leverage UT delegation unity and ENR relationships. [1]Library of Congress — Text - S.1321 — Moab UMTRA Project Transition Act of 2025…[16]Office of Sen. John Curtis — Curtis sworn in as U.S. Senator for Utah — press r…
• Sen. Mike Lee (R‑UT), ENR Chair and cosponsor — principal gatekeeper for markup and full-committee packaging. [3]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — Heinrich, Lee announce ENR subcommittee assignments…[1]Library of Congress — Text - S.1321 — Moab UMTRA Project Transition Act of 2025…
• Sen. John Barrasso (R‑WY), Subcommittee Chair (Public Lands, Forests, and Mining) — controls the first markup throttle. [4]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR Subcommittee on Public Lands, Forests, and Mini…
• Sen. Martin Heinrich (D‑NM), ENR Ranking — Dem sign-off matters for bipartisan packages. [3]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — Heinrich, Lee announce ENR subcommittee assignments…
• Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D‑NV), Subcommittee Ranking — frequent broker on lands bills; no public objection noted. [4]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR Subcommittee on Public Lands, Forests, and Mini…
• Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R‑AK) — pragmatic on DOE/lands issues; potential solver if holds arise. (Role/evidence: senior ENR majority member.) [17]Web search · turn 0 #13
• Rep. Mike Kennedy (R‑UT), House sponsor; Utah delegation press indicates unified support across UT members. [14]Office of Rep. Mike Kennedy — Utah delegation release: Kennedy, Curtis lead bil…
• Rep. Brett Guthrie (R‑KY), House Energy & Commerce Chair — committee gatekeeper for any House action on the companion or a Senate message. [15]House E&C Committee — House Energy & Commerce — Organizational meeting announce…

Leadership Influence and Procedure

Leverage points and bottlenecks that will determine outcome and timing.

• Senate majority leadership: Thune’s office signals regular-order posture and preservation of filibuster; local lands bills typically clear by UC or as part of ENR packages to conserve floor time. [6]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Lea…[7]Associated Press — New Majority Leader Thune kicks off Senate session with pled…
• Committee dynamics: ENR Chair Lee plus Subcommittee Chair Barrasso can consolidate S.1321 within a larger lands packet following the 12/02 hearing; no red flags surfaced on the notice. [2]Congress.gov — Senate ENR Subcommittee hearing listing (includes S.1321)
• House process: Companion referred to E&C under Chair Guthrie. With broad local support and DOE guardrails, the likely path is suspension (2/3) after the Senate acts, minimizing amendment exposure. [5]Library of Congress — Text - H.R. 2681 — Moab UMTRA Project Transition Act of 2…[15]House E&C Committee — House Energy & Commerce — Organizational meeting announce…
• Executive branch: DOE EM timeline targets final closure in 2029, consistent with a conveyance trigger after remedial completion; White House not expected to weigh in beyond DOE views. [9]U.S. Dept. of Energy, Office of Environmental Management — Moab Project Marks M…

Assessment: Likelihood of Passage

Bottom line with odds and timing windows.

• Senate: Moderate-to-high likelihood the bill clears ENR and reaches the floor inside a Q1–Q2 2026 lands package or UC queue, given home‑state sponsorship, unified UT delegation, and lack of organized opposition. Confidence: moderate. [1]Library of Congress — Text - S.1321 — Moab UMTRA Project Transition Act of 2025…[2]Congress.gov — Senate ENR Subcommittee hearing listing (includes S.1321)[14]Office of Rep. Mike Kennedy — Utah delegation release: Kennedy, Curtis lead bil…
• House: Moderate likelihood under suspension once a Senate vehicle exists; committee gate is friendly and Democrats have local-government/DOE guardrails to point to. Confidence: moderate. [15]House E&C Committee — House Energy & Commerce — Organizational meeting announce…[11]The Times-Independent (Moab) — Bill introduced to transfer UMTRA site to Grand…[10]U.S. Dept. of Energy, Office of Environmental Management — Moab Uranium Mill Ta…
• Potential amendment zones: (a) clarifying DOE/NRC post‑transfer access and groundwater rights; (b) reconsidering or narrowing the prohibition on reconveyance to nonprofits to allow conservation easement partners; (c) technical map or legal description updates at the request of DOE/Grand County. These are consistent with testimony-driven tweaks in ENR markups. [1]Library of Congress — Text - S.1321 — Moab UMTRA Project Transition Act of 2025…

Sourcing (key anchors)

Core references underpinning whip assumptions and procedural mapping.

• Bill text and scope: Congress.gov S.1321. [1]Library of Congress — Text - S.1321 — Moab UMTRA Project Transition Act of 2025…
• Senate hearing agenda including S.1321: Congress.gov committee event (12/02/2025). [2]Congress.gov — Senate ENR Subcommittee hearing listing (includes S.1321)
• ENR control and subcommittee leadership: Energy & Natural Resources announcements and roster. [3]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — Heinrich, Lee announce ENR subcommittee assignments…[4]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR Subcommittee on Public Lands, Forests, and Mini…
• Senate/GOP leadership posture and majority status: Thune official releases; AP coverage on filibuster and 53–47. [6]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Lea…[7]Associated Press — New Majority Leader Thune kicks off Senate session with pled…
• House gatekeeper: E&C Chair Brett Guthrie announcements. [15]House E&C Committee — House Energy & Commerce — Organizational meeting announce…
• Local stakeholders on record (support): Moab Times, Moab Sun News, UT delegation press. [11]The Times-Independent (Moab) — Bill introduced to transfer UMTRA site to Grand…[12]The Times-Independent (Moab) — Moab city sends letter supporting UMTRA transit…[13]Moab Sun News — Breaking: New bill would put Moab uranium site under local cont…[14]Office of Rep. Mike Kennedy — Utah delegation release: Kennedy, Curtis lead bil…
• DOE EM timeline/status for Moab UMTRA: DOE EM project and milestone releases. [9]U.S. Dept. of Energy, Office of Environmental Management — Moab Project Marks M…[10]U.S. Dept. of Energy, Office of Environmental Management — Moab Uranium Mill Ta…