119-S-3031 Investigative Journalist Impact Analysis

Summary

S.3031 (“Keep America Flying Act of 2026”) would provide limited continuing appropriations so FAA air traffic operations and TSA screening staff—and certain supporting contractors—receive pay during any FY2026 funding gap, with costs charged to future appropriations. This narrowly targeted funding is designed to keep airports moving and mitigate shutdown‑induced absenteeism and service degradation. However, it does not broadly fund other FAA activities that typically pause under shutdown contingency plans. [1]Library of Congress — S.3031 — 119th Congress (2025–2026) | Congress.gov[2]U.S. Department of Transportation — DOT Operations during a Lapse in Annual App…

Economic Effects

Expected sectoral impacts, with emphasis on travel demand/supply and labor continuity.

• Travel economy losses likely reduced versus a full shutdown without carve‑outs. Industry analysis during the current lapse estimates shutdown costs of roughly $1 billion per week to the travel sector—costs driven by delays, cancellations, and uncertainty; insulating FAA/TSA pay lowers the risk of such disruptions. [4]U.S. Travel Association — Government Shutdown Could Cost Travel Economy $1 Bill…
• Macroeconomic context: the 2018–2019 shutdown reduced output by about $11 billion, with $3 billion permanently lost; avoiding operational disruptions in aviation should trim, not eliminate, analogous losses now. [5]PBS News/Associated Press — Shutdown projected to cost U.S. economy $3 billion,…
• Labor continuity: paying ~13,000+ controllers and ~50,000 TSA officers during a lapse should curb the absenteeism spikes (e.g., TSA unscheduled absences reaching ~10% in Jan. 2019) that slowed throughput and triggered delays. [6]DOT Office of Inspector General — Audit Initiated of FAA’s Implementation of Ai…[7]TSA — TSA at a Glance Factsheet[8]CNBC — Airport screener absences hit record amid partial government shutdown
• Operational stability: during the October 2025 lapse, IATA and FAA reported only limited systemwide flight disruptions so far; ensuring pay should support that stability if the lapse persists. [9]Reuters — US shutdown not creating significant flight disruptions, IATA's chief…
• Residual exposure: DOT’s plan still furloughs large portions of FAA in a lapse (e.g., >11,000 in 2025 planning), so certification, rulemaking, grants, and some modernization remain at risk of delay—effects that this bill does not fully offset. [2]U.S. Department of Transportation — DOT Operations during a Lapse in Annual App…[10]Reuters — FAA would furlough 11,000 employees in US government shutdown

Social Effects

Implications for workers, passengers, and communities.

• Household stability for essential workers: continuous pay during a lapse reduces acute financial stress for FAA/TSA personnel who otherwise would work without pay—conditions previously linked to increased call‑outs and checkpoint closures. [8]CNBC — Airport screener absences hit record amid partial government shutdown
• Passenger experience: by limiting staffing‑related slowdowns, the bill would likely maintain shorter queues and fewer day‑of‑travel disruptions relative to an unfunded scenario, supporting consistent access for business and leisure travelers. [8]CNBC — Airport screener absences hit record amid partial government shutdown
• Equity for support workers: unlike past practice where many federal contractors lacked guaranteed back pay, S.3031 explicitly covers specified FAA/TSA support contractors—narrowing a recurrent hardship gap. [1]Library of Congress — S.3031 — 119th Congress (2025–2026) | Congress.gov
• Labor relations context: TSA’s workforce (~50,000 officers) recently saw termination of collective bargaining protections, a factor some observers warn could depress morale; guaranteed pay during lapses may partially offset stressors but does not address underlying labor‑relations issues. [7]TSA — TSA at a Glance Factsheet[11]News result · turn 4 #12

Environmental Effects

Operational continuity can marginally influence emissions via delay and routing efficiency.

• Delay‑driven emissions: holding patterns, vectoring, and extended taxi caused by staffing constraints increase fuel burn; minimizing shutdown‑induced delays should avoid some of this waste. [12]EUROCONTROL — Environmental impact of delay | EUROCONTROL
• Efficiency tools: FAA/NASA collaborative departure and reroute tools have demonstrated fuel and CO₂ savings when operations are staffed and data‑rich; keeping core operations funded increases the likelihood these benefits persist during a lapse. [13]NASA — NASA Machine Learning Air Traffic Software Saves Fuel

Temporal Analysis

Near-term versus longer-horizon effects.

Unintended Consequences

• Selective relief may weaken incentives to resolve the broader shutdown, leaving other critical aviation functions unfunded; DOT’s own lapse plans show how much remains paused. [2]U.S. Department of Transportation — DOT Operations during a Lapse in Annual App…
• Legal/administrative friction: OMB’s recent stance questioning automatic back pay for furloughed feds underscores that explicit appropriations like S.3031 reduce ambiguity for covered workers but not for uncovered agencies. [15]Washington Post — Furloughed workers not guaranteed back pay after shutdown, OM…
• Equity gaps beyond aviation: non‑covered agencies and contractors would continue to bear full shutdown impacts, shifting hardship geographically (e.g., outside airport communities) and sectorally. [2]U.S. Department of Transportation — DOT Operations during a Lapse in Annual App…

Assessment

Analytical judgment (not advocacy).

Overall stance: neutral. S.3031 is likely to deliver meaningful short‑term operational stability and mitigate some economic and social harms in aviation by keeping pay flowing to controllers, TSA officers, and specified support contractors during lapses. But because it does not broadly fund FAA’s non‑operational work, key safety oversight and modernization activities remain vulnerable to delay under shutdown contingency plans—risks that accumulate the longer a lapse lasts. [1]Library of Congress — S.3031 — 119th Congress (2025–2026) | Congress.gov[2]U.S. Department of Transportation — DOT Operations during a Lapse in Annual App…

Sourcing

Primary references used for this analysis.

• Bill status and scope: Congress.gov S.3031 overview and actions. [1]Library of Congress — S.3031 — 119th Congress (2025–2026) | Congress.gov
• Agency contingency frameworks: DOT consolidated lapse plan; DHS lapse guidance. [2]U.S. Department of Transportation — DOT Operations during a Lapse in Annual App…[3]Department of Homeland Security — Lapse in Funding for DHS | Homeland Security…
• Current-lapse aviation conditions: Reuters (IATA statement on limited disruption; FAA furlough planning). [9]Reuters — US shutdown not creating significant flight disruptions, IATA's chief…[10]Reuters — FAA would furlough 11,000 employees in US government shutdown
• Shutdown macro and travel-economy impacts: CBO (via PBS) and U.S. Travel Association estimates. [5]PBS News/Associated Press — Shutdown projected to cost U.S. economy $3 billion,…[4]U.S. Travel Association — Government Shutdown Could Cost Travel Economy $1 Bill…
• 2019 aviation disruption benchmarks: TSA absenteeism reports; LaGuardia staffing-related delay reporting. [8]CNBC — Airport screener absences hit record amid partial government shutdown[14]Washington Post — FAA delays flights at New York’s LaGuardia Airport, citing st…
• Workforce baselines: TSA at‑a‑glance; DOT OIG on ATC staffing. [7]TSA — TSA at a Glance Factsheet[6]DOT Office of Inspector General — Audit Initiated of FAA’s Implementation of Ai…
• Operational efficiency and emissions: EUROCONTROL study on delay externalities; NASA/FAA digital reroute tools. [12]EUROCONTROL — Environmental impact of delay | EUROCONTROL[13]NASA — NASA Machine Learning Air Traffic Software Saves Fuel
• Back‑pay policy uncertainty in 2025: Washington Post on OMB guidance changes. [15]Washington Post — Furloughed workers not guaranteed back pay after shutdown, OM…
• Congressional hearing record on shutdown’s aviation impacts (oversight, certification, modernization). [16]Congress.gov / U.S. GPO — ‘Putting U.S. Aviation at Risk: The Impact of the Shu…