119-S-1926 DC Insider Prediction Analysis

Bill and Context (one‑paragraph brief)

S.1926 (Merkley) directs the National Park Service to reduce and, where feasible, eliminate sales or distribution of disposable plastic products in park units, with program design factors for refill stations, concession contracts, visitor education, and biennial evaluations; it was referred to Senate Energy & Natural Resources (ENR) and noticed for a Dec. 9, 2025 National Parks Subcommittee hearing. [5]Congress.gov — Text — S.1926 (119th): Reducing Waste in National Parks Act[4]Congress.gov — Committee Schedule for 12/09/2025 — Includes S.1926 on National…

Passage Probability

Rationale: Republicans control both chambers; ENR is chaired by Sen. Mike Lee (R‑UT), and House Natural Resources is chaired by Rep. Bruce Westerman (R‑AR), aligning committee gatekeepers against a plastics‑restriction mandate. The administration has also reversed the 2022 DOI plastics phase‑out, signaling policy opposition from the executive. Finally, absent reconciliation, the Senate’s 60‑vote cloture threshold is a hard ceiling for a partisan-tilted environmental policy. [1]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Party Division[2]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — Chairman — U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natu…[6]Congress.gov — Text — H.Res.13 (119th): Committee Chairs, including Natural Res…[3]U.S. Department of the Interior — RESCINDED: Secretary’s Order 3407 — Departmen…[7]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — Filibusters and Cloture in th…

Public opinion modestly helps proponents (bipartisan voter support for reducing single‑use plastics), but it does not overcome institutional control and floor math in this Congress. [8]Ipsos — Ipsos/Oceana poll: Three in four Americans support national policies to…

Obstacles

• Committee gatekeeping: ENR Chair Lee can deny or reshape markup; the National Parks Subcommittee is chaired by Sen. Steve Daines (R‑MT), who set the Dec. 9 docket and is focused on a broader parks agenda. [2]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — Chairman — U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natu…[9]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR Subcommittee on National Parks — Roster (Chair…[4]Congress.gov — Committee Schedule for 12/09/2025 — Includes S.1926 on National…
• Executive branch posture: DOI rescinded Secretary’s Order 3407 (the 2022 plastics phase‑out), and the White House publicly moved to restore/encourage plastics use in federal settings, implying an OMB/SAP headwind and potential veto threat. [3]U.S. Department of the Interior — RESCINDED: Secretary’s Order 3407 — Departmen…[10]The White House — Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Ends the Procurement an…
• Senate floor math: With the filibuster intact, 60 votes are required for cloture on most legislation; this policy change is not germane to reconciliation and would be vulnerable to Byrd Rule points of order if attempted there. [7]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — Filibusters and Cloture in th…[11]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — The Senate’s Byrd Rule: Frequ…
• House back‑end: If the bill reached the House, Natural Resources Chair Westerman controls the gate; the majority’s priorities make restrictive plastics mandates unlikely to advance. [6]Congress.gov — Text — H.Res.13 (119th): Committee Chairs, including Natural Res…

Short‑Term Consequences

• If it advances to markup: Expect narrowing amendments (e.g., voluntary visitor‑education and refill‑station encouragement; removal of explicit sales elimination), aligning with DOI policy and concessioner concerns; any report would signal intent to fold pieces into a larger parks package. [3]U.S. Department of the Interior — RESCINDED: Secretary’s Order 3407 — Departmen…
• If it stalls after hearing (most likely): Status quo persists under DOI rescission; sponsors gain messaging against the administration’s plastics stance, buoyed by polling showing broad voter concern about single‑use plastics. [3]U.S. Department of the Interior — RESCINDED: Secretary’s Order 3407 — Departmen…[12]Oceana — Oceana press release: U.S. voters support policies that reduce single‑…

Long‑Term Consequences

• Precedent path: NPS plastics policy has swung by administration (2011 bottle sales guidance; 2017 reversal; 2022 DOI phase‑out; 2025 rescission). Absent statute, future swings likely; codification would stabilize policy but is improbable this Congress. [13]National Park Service — NPS 2017 release: Ends effort to eliminate sale of disp…[14]U.S. Department of the Interior — Interior press release (2022): Haaland issues…[3]U.S. Department of the Interior — RESCINDED: Secretary’s Order 3407 — Departmen…
• Packaging into an omnibus: Select, de‑risked provisions (signage, refill‑station pilots, reporting) could hitch a ride on a broader bipartisan parks/lands bill before America250; Daines flagged ongoing work on a larger parks agenda. [15]Office of Sen. Steve Daines — Daines Chairs Senate National Parks Subcommittee…
• Electoral signaling: Even without enactment, Democrats frame plastics reduction around popular majorities in polling; Republicans frame mandates as operational/cost burdens, consistent with current DOI posture—reinforcing coalition narratives into 2026. [8]Ipsos — Ipsos/Oceana poll: Three in four Americans support national policies to…[3]U.S. Department of the Interior — RESCINDED: Secretary’s Order 3407 — Departmen…

Forecast

1. Base case (70%): No markup or a courtesy subcommittee discussion only; bill idles in ENR. [2]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — Chairman — U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natu…
2. Secondary (20%): Narrow language (education/refill‑station encouragement; no sales restrictions) moves as part of a parks package; House accepts or further trims. [9]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR Subcommittee on National Parks — Roster (Chair…
3. Low‑probability (10%): Standalone floor attempt fails to clear 60 votes or is blocked on the Senate calendar; no conference. [7]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — Filibusters and Cloture in th…

Key Source Anchors

Primary anchors for institutional control, committee posture, administration policy, procedural constraints, and the hearing notice.

• Chamber control and Senate 60‑vote reality. [1]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Party Division[7]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — Filibusters and Cloture in th…
• ENR and National Parks Subcommittee leadership/gatekeeping. [2]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — Chairman — U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natu…[9]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR Subcommittee on National Parks — Roster (Chair…
• House Natural Resources chair (back‑end gate). [6]Congress.gov — Text — H.Res.13 (119th): Committee Chairs, including Natural Res…
• Administration plastics stance (DOI rescission; White House straw policy). [3]U.S. Department of the Interior — RESCINDED: Secretary’s Order 3407 — Departmen…[10]The White House — Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Ends the Procurement an…
• Bill text and hearing notice including S.1926. [5]Congress.gov — Text — S.1926 (119th): Reducing Waste in National Parks Act[4]Congress.gov — Committee Schedule for 12/09/2025 — Includes S.1926 on National…
• Public opinion baseline on single‑use plastics. [8]Ipsos — Ipsos/Oceana poll: Three in four Americans support national policies to…[12]Oceana — Oceana press release: U.S. voters support policies that reduce single‑…