119-HJRES-105 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

Breakdown: Where the votes came from

H.J.Res. 105 disapproves BLM’s North Dakota Field Office Record of Decision/Approved Resource Management Plan (ROD/RMP), which GAO determined is a “rule” eligible for CRA review; the ROD was signed Jan. 8 and noticed Jan. 15, 2025. [5]Congress.gov / GPO — Congressional Record S3556–S3558 (GAO opinion: ND ROD/RMP…[6]Federal Register — Federal Register notice — ND ROD/Approved RMP (signed Jan. 8…

• House: Passed 215–211 on Sept. 3, 2025 (Roll 226). Party split: Republicans 215–1–3; Democrats 0–210–2. The sole GOP ‘no’ was Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (PA); non‑voting included Reps. Burchett (R‑TN), Hunt (R‑TX), Jordan (R‑OH), Goldman (D‑NY), and Swalwell (D‑CA). [1]Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives — House Roll Call 226 (H.J.Res. 105)…
• Senate: Passed 50–45 on Oct. 8, 2025 (Vote No. 556). All recorded ‘yea’ votes were Republicans; all recorded ‘nay’ votes were Democrats or the two Democratic‑caucusing Independents; five Senators did not vote (Booker, Cruz, Gallego, Hawley, Tillis). [2]U.S. Senate — Senate Roll Call Vote 556 (H.J.Res. 105) — senate.gov
• Procedural path: In the Senate, CRA disapprovals proceed under expedited procedures—non‑debatable motion to proceed, up to 10 hours of debate, no amendments, simple majority threshold—eliminating the filibuster barrier. [3]Congressional Research Service (via Congress.gov) — The Congressional Review Ac…
• Substantive target: BLM’s ND ROD/RMP revised the 1988 plan; GAO’s opinion (printed in the Congressional Record on June 26, 2025) concluded the RMP is a rule subject to CRA. [5]Congress.gov / GPO — Congressional Record S3556–S3558 (GAO opinion: ND ROD/RMP…

Institutional control: Republicans hold majorities in both chambers in the 119th Congress, with Sen. John Thune serving as Majority Leader and Sen. Chuck Schumer as Minority Leader. [7]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — composition overview[8]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate Majority/Minority Leaders, 119th listing

Key legislators and swing dynamics

With CRA fast‑track and unified GOP leadership, pivotal votes were limited to a small set of cross‑pressured moderates and absentees.

• House moderates: Only one Republican defection—Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (PA)—voted ‘nay’; no Democrats voted ‘yea.’ This indicates strong GOP cohesion and limited crossover appeal for Democrats from energy‑state or swing‑district members. [1]Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives — House Roll Call 226 (H.J.Res. 105)…
• House non‑voters: Burchett (R‑TN), Hunt (R‑TX), Jordan (R‑OH) on the GOP side; Goldman (D‑NY), Swalwell (D‑CA) on the Democratic side. None changed the outcome given the four‑vote margin. [1]Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives — House Roll Call 226 (H.J.Res. 105)…
• Senate moderates: Sens. Murkowski (R‑AK) and Collins (R‑ME) voted with the GOP; no Democratic crossover occurred. The five absences (Booker, Cruz, Gallego, Hawley, Tillis) were not outcome‑determinative. [2]U.S. Senate — Senate Roll Call Vote 556 (H.J.Res. 105) — senate.gov
• Issue champions: North Dakota’s delegation—Sen. Kevin Cramer and Sen. John Hoeven—pushed the resolution following GAO’s opinion; Rep. Julie Fedorchak sponsored the House vehicle. [9]U.S. Senate (Kevin Cramer) — Sen. Kevin Cramer statement on House passage of ND…[10]Web search · turn 11 #1

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

Leadership alignment and CRA procedure were decisive.

• Senate: Majority Leader John Thune controlled floor time and could bring the House‑passed CRA directly to the floor under fast‑track rules (non‑debatable motion to proceed; simple majority). Minority Leader Chuck Schumer opposed. [8]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate Majority/Minority Leaders, 119th listing[3]Congressional Research Service (via Congress.gov) — The Congressional Review Ac…
• House: Speaker Mike Johnson set up consideration via a special rule (H.Res. 672) and maintained a largely unified conference on final passage. [11]Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives — House Roll Call Index (shows H.Res…
• Committee posture: Although ENR has authorizing jurisdiction over BLM, CRA allowed bypass to the floor; ENR is chaired by Sen. Mike Lee (R‑UT) with Sen. Martin Heinrich (D‑NM) as Ranking Member. [12]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources — Senate Energy & Natural…
• Interest groups: Energy‑sector advocates in ND backed disapproval (e.g., ND Petroleum Council, Western Dakota Energy Association), while conservation groups (e.g., National Wildlife Federation) warned that using CRA on land plans would destabilize public‑lands stewardship. [13]House of Representatives (Rep. Julie Fedorchak) — Rep. Julie Fedorchak press re…[14]National Wildlife Federation — National Wildlife Federation statement opposing…

Assessment: Likelihood of enactment

Given bicameral passage, GOP control, and White House posture, the remaining step is presidential action.

• Next step: Presentment to President Trump. AP and broader administration posture on energy deregulation indicate he is expected to sign. [4]Associated Press — AP: Republicans move to roll back Biden‑era land plans; Trum…
• Bottom line: Enactment likelihood—High. With CRA’s simple‑majority threshold already met in both chambers and no veto risk, there is little remaining uncertainty beyond timing of the signature. [3]Congressional Research Service (via Congress.gov) — The Congressional Review Ac…

Sourcing (selected)

Primary legislative records and nonpartisan procedural analyses underpin this whipcount.

• House Roll Call (Roll 226), party split and member‑level votes. [1]Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives — House Roll Call 226 (H.J.Res. 105)…
• Senate Roll Call (Vote 556), vote and attendance by member. [2]U.S. Senate — Senate Roll Call Vote 556 (H.J.Res. 105) — senate.gov
• CRA Senate procedure (expedited process, simple majority, 10‑hour cap). [3]Congressional Research Service (via Congress.gov) — The Congressional Review Ac…
• GAO opinion re: ND ROD/RMP as a CRA‑covered rule (Congressional Record S3556‑S3558). [5]Congress.gov / GPO — Congressional Record S3556–S3558 (GAO opinion: ND ROD/RMP…
• BLM’s Federal Register notice establishing the ND ROD/RMP effective date. [6]Federal Register — Federal Register notice — ND ROD/Approved RMP (signed Jan. 8…
• Chamber control and leadership context (119th Congress; Thune/Schumer). [7]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — composition overview[8]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate Majority/Minority Leaders, 119th listing
• White House posture on energy CRA actions (expected signature). [4]Associated Press — AP: Republicans move to roll back Biden‑era land plans; Trum…
• Committee leadership: Senate ENR Chair/Ranking. [12]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources — Senate Energy & Natural…
• Stakeholder statements (ND delegation/industry; conservation groups). [9]U.S. Senate (Kevin Cramer) — Sen. Kevin Cramer statement on House passage of ND…[13]House of Representatives (Rep. Julie Fedorchak) — Rep. Julie Fedorchak press re…[14]National Wildlife Federation — National Wildlife Federation statement opposing…