119-HR-5711 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

Breakdown: Likely support and opposition

Scope of H.R. 5711 mirrors past “Metropolitan Planning Enhancement Act” text: requires MPOs/states to use public, criteria-based project scoring and to prioritize top-ranked projects in TIPs/STIPs. That aligns with past DeSaulnier introductions in 2018 and 2023. [6]Congress.gov — H.R. 4482 (118th): Metropolitan Planning Enhancement Act — text[7]Congress.gov — H.R. 6493 (115th): Metropolitan Planning Enhancement Act

• House Democrats: Broadly favorable to transparency/performance framing; sponsor sits on T&I subcommittees handling highways/transit. But prior iterations drew little visible caucus mobilization (e.g., no cosponsors on the 118th version), signaling limited whip engagement absent a larger package. [8]House Transportation & Infrastructure Committee — House T&I press release: Subc…[9]Congress.gov — H.R. 4482 (118th): Metropolitan Planning Enhancement Act — status
• House Republicans: Conference—and T&I leadership specifically—recently framed analogous federal planning mandates as unlawful overreach (FHWA GHG performance measure). Expect solid conference opposition to a new federal scoring mandate on state DOTs/MPOs. [5]House Transportation & Infrastructure Committee — House T&I: Graves & Crawford…[10]Reuters — U.S. Senate votes to reject FHWA GHG performance measure
• House net: With a narrow GOP majority and the Speaker aligned with T&I leadership, the bill is unlikely to receive floor time without significant softening (e.g., reporting-only, pilot authority). [2]Associated Press — 119th Congress: Mike Johnson reelected Speaker
• Senate Democrats: Ideologically receptive to transparency/accountability, but in the minority; leverage depends on amendment opportunities in must-move vehicles. [1]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Party Division (119th Congress)
• Senate Republicans: Gatekeepers oppose prescriptive federal planning requirements; EPW Chair Capito and Banking Chair Scott set the agenda for 23 USC (highways) and 49 USC ch. 53 (transit). Expect resistance to mandates that limit state flexibility. [3]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Wor…[11]U.S. Senate Banking Committee — Senate Banking Committee — About (jurisdiction…
• Senate net: Republican control plus skeptical chairs make a hearing/markup unlikely absent major narrowing. [1]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Party Division (119th Congress)

Context signals: external research finds many states lack public-facing project selection systems—evidence advocates will cite—but that does not shift the internal gatekeeping reality. [12]Brookings Institution — Brookings Metro: Connecting the DOTs — state accountabi…

Key legislators and pivots

Focus on gatekeepers and plausible swing votes based on roles, not ideology.

Citations: Graves/Crawford posture on FHWA GHG rule; DeSaulnier/T&I roles; EPW/Banking chairs; Thune as Majority Leader. [5]House Transportation & Infrastructure Committee — House T&I: Graves & Crawford…[8]House Transportation & Infrastructure Committee — House T&I press release: Subc…[3]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Wor…[4]U.S. Senate Banking Committee — Senate Banking Committee — Chairman Tim Scott a…[11]U.S. Senate Banking Committee — Senate Banking Committee — About (jurisdiction…[13]Senate Republican Conference — Senate GOP: Leadership for the 119th Congress (J…

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

Institutional alignment drives outcomes more than issue merits here.

• House leadership: Speaker Mike Johnson and a narrow GOP majority rely on committee chairs to vet policy. With T&I GOP opposed to new mandates on state DOTs/MPOs, leadership has little incentive to allocate floor time. [2]Associated Press — 119th Congress: Mike Johnson reelected Speaker[5]House Transportation & Infrastructure Committee — House T&I: Graves & Crawford…
• Senate leadership: GOP majority sets committee agendas and floor. Thune controls queue; EPW (highways) and Banking (transit) chairs are skeptical of prescriptive federal planning rules. [1]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Party Division (119th Congress)[13]Senate Republican Conference — Senate GOP: Leadership for the 119th Congress (J…[3]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Wor…[4]U.S. Senate Banking Committee — Senate Banking Committee — Chairman Tim Scott a…
• Committee jurisdiction: House T&I for initial action; Senate EPW (23 USC) and Banking (49 USC ch. 53). Prior versions mirror this path. [6]Congress.gov — H.R. 4482 (118th): Metropolitan Planning Enhancement Act — text
• Timing: The current fall shutdown/appropriations crunch further squeezes floor bandwidth for niche standalones. Even if noticed, it would compete with must-pass items. [14]News result · turn 3 #12
• Negotiating space: Narrow pivots (reporting-only transparency, permissive scoring guidance, limited pilot modeled after Virginia’s SMART SCALE) could blunt opposition by preserving state discretion. [15]Commonwealth of Virginia — Virginia SMART SCALE — How it Works

Assessment

• Baseline whip: Democrats generally favorable; Republicans generally opposed; limited crossover interest for a binding mandate. [6]Congress.gov — H.R. 4482 (118th): Metropolitan Planning Enhancement Act — text[5]House Transportation & Infrastructure Committee — House T&I: Graves & Crawford…
• House path: Low likelihood of T&I markup without substantial narrowing; floor prospects minimal under current leadership alignment. [2]Associated Press — 119th Congress: Mike Johnson reelected Speaker
• Senate path: Very low likelihood of hearing/markup in EPW/Banking; no floor path under current priorities. [3]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Wor…[4]U.S. Senate Banking Committee — Senate Banking Committee — Chairman Tim Scott a…
• Overall likelihood of passage (as introduced): Low (high confidence).

• Most viable play: Recast as nonbinding transparency/reporting requirements or a discretionary pilot program; seek inclusion in the next surface reauthorization vehicle rather than a standalone. [8]House Transportation & Infrastructure Committee — House T&I press release: Subc…

Sourcing (selected)

Primary references for chamber control, committee leadership, policy text, and recent precedent.

• Chamber control/leadership: Senate party division; Thune as Majority Leader; Speaker Johnson. [1]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Party Division (119th Congress)[13]Senate Republican Conference — Senate GOP: Leadership for the 119th Congress (J…[2]Associated Press — 119th Congress: Mike Johnson reelected Speaker
• Committee gatekeepers: EPW chair page; Senate Banking chair/jurisdiction; T&I subcommittee rosters including sponsor’s assignments. [3]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Wor…[4]U.S. Senate Banking Committee — Senate Banking Committee — Chairman Tim Scott a…[11]U.S. Senate Banking Committee — Senate Banking Committee — About (jurisdiction…[8]House Transportation & Infrastructure Committee — House T&I press release: Subc…
• Bill lineage/text: 118th MPEA text; earlier 115th/116th versions; lack of cosponsors in 118th. [6]Congress.gov — H.R. 4482 (118th): Metropolitan Planning Enhancement Act — text[7]Congress.gov — H.R. 6493 (115th): Metropolitan Planning Enhancement Act[16]Congress.gov — H.R. 7962 (116th): Metropolitan Planning Enhancement Act[9]Congress.gov — H.R. 4482 (118th): Metropolitan Planning Enhancement Act — status
• Precedent on mandates: T&I GOP statements on FHWA GHG measure; Senate CRA vote; industry alignment. [5]House Transportation & Infrastructure Committee — House T&I: Graves & Crawford…[10]Reuters — U.S. Senate votes to reject FHWA GHG performance measure
• Policy context: Brookings inventory on state transparency gaps; Virginia SMART SCALE as model of scoring. [12]Brookings Institution — Brookings Metro: Connecting the DOTs — state accountabi…[15]Commonwealth of Virginia — Virginia SMART SCALE — How it Works