Analyses / Whip Count Analysis / 119 · HR 5107 Whip Count Analysis

119-HR-5107 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

119 · HR 5107 Common-Sense Law Enforcement and Accountability Now in DC Act of 2025

gavel Crime and Law Enforcement
Common-Sense Law Enforcement and Accountability Now in DC Act or the CLEAN DC ActThis bill repeals the Comprehensive Policing and Justice Reform Amendment Act of 2022, enacted by the Council of the...

House: Likely passage on a near-party-line with a few Democratic crossovers; Oversight reported H.R. 5107 (RH, Union Calendar No. 271). Senate: GOP majority can report the companion from HSGAC, but 60 votes are still required; absent a larger negotiating vehicle, standalone floor passage is unlikely this fall. White House: supportive; if it reaches the President, he signs. Watch for riders in year-end negotiations rather than a clean CR before late November. [1]Congress.gov — Text (Reported in House): H.R.5107 (119th) — Report No. 119-317;…[2]Congress.gov — All Actions (Except Text) — H.R. 5107 (119th): Ordered reported…[3]U.S. Senate (Rand Paul) — Rand Paul assumes chairmanship of Senate HSGAC (119th)[4]SDPB — Sen. Thune officially becomes Senate Majority Leader; pledges to preserv…[5]Washington Post — John Thune op-ed on keeping funding bill clean (timing to Nov…

Analyzed as
DC Insider
Published
01 Oct 2025
Updated
07 Oct 2025
Tags
whipcount · DC · policing
Unvetted
01 · Section

Breakdown: expected support by chamber/party

Context: H.R. 5107 (CLEAN DC Act) was ordered reported by House Oversight on Sept. 10 (26–19) and has a House-reported text (RH) placed on the Union Calendar; a Senate companion (S.2687) sits in HSGAC. [2]Congress.gov — All Actions (Except Text) — H.R. 5107 (119th): Ordered reported…[1]Congress.gov — Text (Reported in House): H.R.5107 (119th) — Report No. 119-317;…[6]Congress.gov — S.2687 (119th) — CLEAN DC Act (Senate companion)

  • House GOP: Near-unanimous support. The bill is part of the majority’s broader DC crime/oversight push backed by leadership and the White House. Oversight Chair James Comer is promoting the measure; Speaker Johnson has advanced related DC crime measures. Expect a handful of absences/defections at most. [7]House Oversight Committee — Oversight Committee markup wrap-up citing H.R. 5107…[8]AP — House approves DC crime bills (Sept. 16, 2025)[9]AP — Mike Johnson narrowly reelected Speaker; slim GOP majority
  • House Democrats: Limited but non-zero crossover. One Democrat (Cuellar) is an original cosponsor; earlier this year 30 House Democrats voted to roll back parts of DC’s policing law, and 56 Democrats backed a separate DC voting repeal. Anticipate a small group (low single digits to ~10) of crossovers on final passage. [10]Congress.gov — Cosponsors list shows Cuellar backing H.R. 5107[11]Washington Post — House votes to repeal DC laws on noncitizen voting and police…
  • Senate Republicans: Institutional support to report the bill (HSGAC is chaired by Rand Paul; the DC subcommittee is chaired by Josh Hawley). On the floor, GOP holds 53 seats but will still need 60 for cloture—which leadership says remains intact. [3]U.S. Senate (Rand Paul) — Rand Paul assumes chairmanship of Senate HSGAC (119th)[12]U.S. Senate HSGAC — HSGAC subcommittee lineup (DC subcommittee chaired by Hawle…[13]U.S. Senate Periodical Press Gallery — Senate party division: 53 Republicans, 4…[4]SDPB — Sen. Thune officially becomes Senate Majority Leader; pledges to preserv…
  • Senate Democrats/Independents: Conference leadership opposes the broader federal override of DC’s policing framework; Dems can block cloture on a standalone unless Republicans secure ~7 Democratic votes. 2023’s 81–14 vote to void DC’s crime code shows precedent for bipartisan action on DC crime, but this bill’s broader repeal scope makes comparable Democratic support less likely. [14]News result · turn 16 #13
Chamber Party Expected position Est. votes
House Republicans Support ~215–220 yes (allowing for a few absences)
House Democrats Mostly oppose; limited crossover ~3–10 yes
Senate Republicans Support 50–53 yes
Senate Democrats/Ind. Oppose (filibuster) ~44–47 no; 2–6 potential yes
02 · Section

Key legislators (swing votes and pivotal actors)

Focus is on members with demonstrated willingness to break party lines on DC crime or with procedural leverage.

  • House crossovers to watch (Democrats): Rep. Henry Cuellar (cosponsor) and a small set of frontliners who supported prior DC crime/discipline rollbacks (30 Dems backed a June repeal of DC police-discipline provisions). [10]Congress.gov — Cosponsors list shows Cuellar backing H.R. 5107[11]Washington Post — House votes to repeal DC laws on noncitizen voting and police…
  • House leadership/leverage: Speaker Mike Johnson sets floor timing; pattern of bringing DC crime bills indicates likely floor time when bandwidth allows. Rules will tailor debate. [9]AP — Mike Johnson narrowly reelected Speaker; slim GOP majority
  • Senate gatekeepers: HSGAC Chair Rand Paul and Subcommittee Chair Josh Hawley control the committee path for S.2687; expect prompt reporting if leadership wants a vote. [3]U.S. Senate (Rand Paul) — Rand Paul assumes chairmanship of Senate HSGAC (119th)[12]U.S. Senate HSGAC — HSGAC subcommittee lineup (DC subcommittee chaired by Hawle…
  • Senate swing universe: Given the 60-vote hurdle, Republicans need ~7 Democrats/Independents. 2023’s 81–14 Senate vote to void DC’s crime code shows some Democratic tolerance for intervening on DC criminal policy, but this bill’s broader repeal (beyond crime code to policing accountability) narrows that pool. [14]News result · turn 16 #13
  • Executive branch alignment: The White House is encouraging tougher federal action on DC crime and is coordinating with congressional GOP leaders; if the bill reaches the President, signature is expected. [15]Reuters — Trump says he’s working with Johnson and Thune on crime bill; federal…
03 · Section

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

Where leadership stands and what tools are in play.

  • House: GOP leadership and Oversight Chair Comer are leaning in—the committee’s own release promotes the CLEAN DC Act as part of a package to “make D.C. safe.” Expect a structured rule and a partisan debate framed around public safety vs. home rule. [7]House Oversight Committee — Oversight Committee markup wrap-up citing H.R. 5107…
  • Senate: Republicans hold the majority (53–47) with John Thune as Majority Leader; however, leadership has reiterated that the filibuster remains, meaning 60 votes on a standalone. HSGAC is the primary committee of jurisdiction. [13]U.S. Senate Periodical Press Gallery — Senate party division: 53 Republicans, 4…[4]SDPB — Sen. Thune officially becomes Senate Majority Leader; pledges to preserv…
  • Vehicles/timing: The Senate has emphasized a “clean” short-term CR into late November, limiting policy riders in the immediate window. As such, the more realistic path is either (1) a negotiated rider in a year-end omnibus where Democrats bargain for concessions, or (2) packaging with other DC crime bills that recently passed the House to trade for limited Democratic votes. [5]Washington Post — John Thune op-ed on keeping funding bill clean (timing to Nov…[8]AP — House approves DC crime bills (Sept. 16, 2025)
  • Precedent/context: Congress has intervened on DC crime before (e.g., 2023 disapproval resolution on the DC criminal code drew 81 Senate votes). But H.R. 5107 repeals major planks of DC’s 2022 policing reform law, which faces organized opposition from civil-rights groups and DC leadership, making bipartisan Senate buy-in harder. [14]News result · turn 16 #13[16]ACLU-DC — ACLU-DC letter supporting CPJRAA (Dec. 6, 2022)[17]NAACP LDF — NAACP Legal Defense Fund condemns efforts to strike down CPJRAA[18]Congressional Record — Bowser/Council letters opposing overrides (inserted in C…
04 · Section

Institutional context and interest groups

What the bill does, who’s for/against, and relevant jurisdictional facts.

  • Bill substance: Repeals DC’s Comprehensive Policing and Justice Reform Amendment Act of 2022 (D.C. Law 24-345). House text has been reported (RH; Union Calendar No. 271). Senate companion S.2687 is in HSGAC. [19]D.C. Law Library — D.C. Law 24-345 — Comprehensive Policing and Justice Reform…[1]Congress.gov — Text (Reported in House): H.R.5107 (119th) — Report No. 119-317;…[6]Congress.gov — S.2687 (119th) — CLEAN DC Act (Senate companion)
  • Committee jurisdiction: House—Oversight and Government Reform; Senate—Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs (with a DC-focused subcommittee). [2]Congress.gov — All Actions (Except Text) — H.R. 5107 (119th): Ordered reported…[3]U.S. Senate (Rand Paul) — Rand Paul assumes chairmanship of Senate HSGAC (119th)[12]U.S. Senate HSGAC — HSGAC subcommittee lineup (DC subcommittee chaired by Hawle…
  • Interest groups for: DC Police Union (FOP/MPD Labor Committee) publicly endorses repeal; Republicans cite officer retention and morale. [20]U.S. Senate (Katie Britt) — Britt press release quoting D.C. Police Union suppo…
  • Interest groups against: ACLU-DC and NAACP LDF oppose federal rollbacks of DC’s policing reforms; DC Mayor Bowser and the Council have formally opposed congressional overrides. [16]ACLU-DC — ACLU-DC letter supporting CPJRAA (Dec. 6, 2022)[17]NAACP LDF — NAACP Legal Defense Fund condemns efforts to strike down CPJRAA[18]Congressional Record — Bowser/Council letters opposing overrides (inserted in C…
  • Related House floor activity: In June and September, the House passed other DC crime-related measures with some Democratic votes—signaling political cover for limited bipartisan support on DC public-safety items. [11]Washington Post — House votes to repeal DC laws on noncitizen voting and police…[8]AP — House approves DC crime bills (Sept. 16, 2025)
05 · Section

Assessment: whip, path, and odds

Bottom-line read from a power-and-procedure lens.

House passage likelihood
80% (moderate-high)
Senate standalone cloture likelihood (this fall)
30% (low)
Odds if attached to year-end negotiating vehicle
45% (moderate)
  • House: Expect the bill to clear the floor on a near party-line with a few Democratic yes votes (Cuellar plus a small handful who backed prior DC crime measures). Timing depends on floor bandwidth amid funding fights; the measure already has a reported text (RH). [10]Congress.gov — Cosponsors list shows Cuellar backing H.R. 5107[1]Congress.gov — Text (Reported in House): H.R.5107 (119th) — Report No. 119-317;…
  • Senate: HSGAC can advance quickly, but 60 votes are the wall. With Republicans at 53 and leadership keeping the filibuster, GOP needs ~7 Democrats. Given organized opposition to repealing DC’s 2022 policing law, a clean standalone is unlikely to hit 60 this fall. [13]U.S. Senate Periodical Press Gallery — Senate party division: 53 Republicans, 4…[4]SDPB — Sen. Thune officially becomes Senate Majority Leader; pledges to preserv…[16]ACLU-DC — ACLU-DC letter supporting CPJRAA (Dec. 6, 2022)
  • Strategy window: A clean CR targeted to late November leaves limited near-term opportunities for policy riders. Realistic play is to hold the reported bill and seek inclusion in a broader year-end deal or a DC crime package where Democrats extract concessions. [5]Washington Post — John Thune op-ed on keeping funding bill clean (timing to Nov…[8]AP — House approves DC crime bills (Sept. 16, 2025)
  • White House: Supportive of the broader crackdown posture on DC; if a bill reaches the Resolute Desk, it will be signed. [15]Reuters — Trump says he’s working with Johnson and Thune on crime bill; federal…
Sources cited
  1. [1] Text (Reported in House): H.R.5107 (119th) — Report No. 119-317; Union Calendar No. 271 Congress.gov
  2. [2] All Actions (Except Text) — H.R. 5107 (119th): Ordered reported 26–19 (9/10/2025) Congress.gov
  3. [3] Rand Paul assumes chairmanship of Senate HSGAC (119th) U.S. Senate (Rand Paul)
  4. [4] Sen. Thune officially becomes Senate Majority Leader; pledges to preserve filibuster SDPB
  5. [5] John Thune op-ed on keeping funding bill clean (timing to Nov. 21) Washington Post
  6. [6] S.2687 (119th) — CLEAN DC Act (Senate companion) Congress.gov
  7. [7] Oversight Committee markup wrap-up citing H.R. 5107 and Chairman Comer’s support House Oversight Committee
  8. [8] House approves DC crime bills (Sept. 16, 2025) AP
  9. [9] Mike Johnson narrowly reelected Speaker; slim GOP majority AP
  10. [10] Cosponsors list shows Cuellar backing H.R. 5107 Congress.gov
  11. [11] House votes to repeal DC laws on noncitizen voting and police discipline (vote tallies) Washington Post
  12. [12] HSGAC subcommittee lineup (DC subcommittee chaired by Hawley) U.S. Senate HSGAC
  13. [13] Senate party division: 53 Republicans, 47 Democrats (incl. 2 Independents) U.S. Senate Periodical Press Gallery
  14. [14] News result · turn 16 #13
  15. [15] Trump says he’s working with Johnson and Thune on crime bill; federalization posture Reuters
  16. [16] ACLU-DC letter supporting CPJRAA (Dec. 6, 2022) ACLU-DC
  17. [17] NAACP Legal Defense Fund condemns efforts to strike down CPJRAA NAACP LDF
  18. [18] Bowser/Council letters opposing overrides (inserted in Congressional Record) Congressional Record
  19. [19] D.C. Law 24-345 — Comprehensive Policing and Justice Reform Amendment Act of 2022 D.C. Law Library
  20. [20] Britt press release quoting D.C. Police Union supporting CLEAN D.C. Act U.S. Senate (Katie Britt)

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