119-HRES-811 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

Breakdown: expected support by party/caucus

Measure: H.Res. 811 — “Expressing support for the designation of the week of October 24, 2025, to October 31, 2025, as ‘Bat Week.’” Introduced Oct 17, 2025; referred to House Agriculture. Simple House resolution; does not go to the Senate or President. [1]Library of Congress — Text - H.Res.811 (119th): Expressing support for the desi…[6]House.gov — Bills & Resolutions — House.gov explainer (simple resolutions are H…

• Democrats: Expect near-unanimous support if it reaches the floor (longstanding pattern on wildlife/commemorative sentiments; sponsor is Rep. Becca Balint). Note: prior Bat Week resolutions in the 118th Congress were introduced by Balint as well. [7]Web search · turn 3 #0
• Republicans: Substantive opposition is minimal; the main headwind is procedural/political. House GOP Conference Rule 29 has, in recent Congresses, instructed the Majority Leader not to schedule commemorative period recognitions under suspension — the most common vehicle for noncontroversial resolutions. That policy choice, not policy substance, is the barrier. [3]EveryCRSReport.com — CRS (EveryCRSReport): Commemoratives and GOP Conference Ru…
• If scheduled under suspension, the resolution would require two‑thirds of Members present and voting; such measures typically pass easily. [4]Congress.gov (CRS) — CRS: Suspension of the Rules in the House — Principal Feat…
• Senate context: A parallel Senate simple resolution (S.Res. 454, Oct 16, 2025) exists but is procedurally independent; House action on H.Res. 811 is neither required by nor contingent on the Senate. [8]Congress.gov — S.Res. 454 (119th): Senate Bat Week simple resolution introduced…[9]Web search · turn 10 #0

Key legislators and leverage points

The swing here is procedural gatekeepers, not ideological fence‑sitters.

• Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA): Controls recognition and the overall floor strategy; in a narrowly controlled GOP House, his tolerance for commemoratives during a shutdown is low. [2]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — composition and leadership
• Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA): Owns the floor schedule. His office publishes the weekly agenda; adherence to Conference Rule 29 means commemoratives generally are not teed up under suspension absent leadership exceptions. [10]Office of the House Majority Leader — House Majority Leader official site (agen…[3]EveryCRSReport.com — CRS (EveryCRSReport): Commemoratives and GOP Conference Ru…
• Rules Committee Chair Virginia Foxx (R-NC): Could report a special rule to bring H.Res. 811 up by simple majority instead of suspension, but leadership rarely expends a rule on nonbinding commemoratives. [11]House Rules Committee (majority) — House Rules Committee press release: Chairwo…
• House Agriculture Chair Glenn “GT” Thompson (R-PA): Committee of referral; while simple resolutions don’t require markup to reach the floor, a favorable nod from the Chair can help, but leadership scheduling is still decisive. [12]Congress.gov — H.Res. 13 (119th): Electing members to standing committees (list…
• Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY): Can guarantee the bulk of the two‑thirds threshold if the measure is scheduled under suspension. [2]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — composition and leadership

Leadership stance and procedural dynamics

Institutional context dictates the outlook more than member ideology.

• Status/vehicle: H.Res. 811 is a House‑only, nonbinding simple resolution; it was introduced Oct 17, 2025 and referred to Agriculture. [1]Library of Congress — Text - H.Res.811 (119th): Expressing support for the desi…[6]House.gov — Bills & Resolutions — House.gov explainer (simple resolutions are H…
• Scheduling constraint: House GOP Conference Rule 29 has for years discouraged scheduling commemorative period recognitions under suspension — the pathway used for quick passage and typically reserved for widely supported items. This makes floor time unlikely barring an explicit leadership exception. [3]EveryCRSReport.com — CRS (EveryCRSReport): Commemoratives and GOP Conference Ru…
• Vote math if scheduled: Under suspension of the rules, it needs two‑thirds of those present and voting. Historically, suspension measures pass at very high rates, often by voice vote. [4]Congress.gov (CRS) — CRS: Suspension of the Rules in the House — Principal Feat…
• Competing priorities: As of Oct 18, 2025, the House is operating amid an ongoing federal shutdown, and floor/messaging time is focused on funding fights — crowding out commemoratives in the near term. [5]Reuters — Trump administration freezes $11B more in infrastructure amid Oct 202…[13]U.S. House (Rep. Tonko) — Rep. Paul Tonko: 2025 Shutdown information page (conf…
• Parallel messaging: A Senate Bat Week simple resolution (S.Res. 454) was introduced Oct 16, 2025, but Senate action has no bearing on House passage. [8]Congress.gov — S.Res. 454 (119th): Senate Bat Week simple resolution introduced…

Interest groups and signals

The coalition is supportive but low‑salience; no organized opposition identified.

• Bat Week is an established, annual, multi‑partner campaign led by federal and NGO partners (e.g., USFWS, BLM, Bat Conservation International). [14]Bat Week — Bat Week — official coalition site[15]Bureau of Land Management — BLM Bat Week landing page (federal partner programm…
• Federal partners are actively programming Bat Week 2025 events (e.g., Minnesota Valley NWR). [16]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — USFWS event: 2025 Minnesota Bat Festival (Bat We…
• Economic framing for agriculture: peer‑reviewed estimates peg bats’ annual pest‑control value at roughly $3.7B (Boyles et al., Science; USGS summary) — a message that resonates with Ag‑state members across parties. [17]USGS — USGS Publications Warehouse: Economic importance of bats in agriculture…[18]USGS — USGS FAQ: Why are bats important? (economic value)

Assessment: likelihood of passage

Timing and procedure, not substance, drive the whip count on H.Res. 811.

• Before Oct 31, 2025: Low. GOP leadership historically avoids commemorative period recognitions under suspension, and the shutdown has compressed floor bandwidth. Expect no floor action before the Bat Week window. [3]EveryCRSReport.com — CRS (EveryCRSReport): Commemoratives and GOP Conference Ru…[5]Reuters — Trump administration freezes $11B more in infrastructure amid Oct 202…
• Remainder of 2025: Low‑to‑moderate. If leadership relaxes Conference Rule 29 implementation or grants an exception, the resolution would likely pass easily on a suspension vote with broad bipartisan support; absent that, it will languish in committee. [3]EveryCRSReport.com — CRS (EveryCRSReport): Commemoratives and GOP Conference Ru…[4]Congress.gov (CRS) — CRS: Suspension of the Rules in the House — Principal Feat…
• Overall confidence: Moderate. The procedural barriers are well‑documented; there is no substantive policy fight over the text. [1]Library of Congress — Text - H.Res.811 (119th): Expressing support for the desi…

Key numbers

Sources: House control/leadership (119th); suspension procedure; H.Res. 811 text/status; shutdown reports. [2]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — composition and leadership[4]Congress.gov (CRS) — CRS: Suspension of the Rules in the House — Principal Feat…[1]Library of Congress — Text - H.Res.811 (119th): Expressing support for the desi…[5]Reuters — Trump administration freezes $11B more in infrastructure amid Oct 202…