119-HRES-813 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

Breakdown: expected support/opposition by party and caucus

Institutional context first: this is a House simple resolution — it never goes to the Senate or the President and carries no force of law. Historically, commemorative measures like this are taken up on the House floor under suspension of the rules (two‑thirds threshold) when time allows. [5]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Types of Legislation — definition of simple resoluti…[2]Congress.gov (CRS) — CRS In Focus: Suspension of the Rules in the House — prin…

• Measure: H.Res. 813 (119th) — “Urging the people of the United States to observe the month of October 2025 as Italian and Italian American Heritage Month.” Introduced October 17, 2025; referred to Oversight. Sponsors/cosponsors span both parties (DeLauro; Rulli; Panetta; Garbarino; Amodei; Suozzi; Salazar; Garamendi; Thompson). Total listed cosponsors: 9. [1]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — Text - H.Res.813 (119th): Italian and Ital…
• Party landscape (House): GOP majority, 220–215. The narrow margin is largely irrelevant on suspensions if leadership schedules the bill on a consensus day, but it matters for whether leadership devotes floor time amid the shutdown. [6]CBS News — The 119th Congress begins: balance of power in House (220–215) and S…
• Expected Dem position: Broad support; no organized opposition signaled. The text avoids Columbus references (a prior flashpoint), and Italian‑American organizations actively promote the month each October. [1]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — Text - H.Res.813 (119th): Italian and Ital…[7]Order Sons and Daughters of Italy in America (OSDIA) — Italian American Heritag…
• Expected GOP position: Broad support; multiple GOP cosponsors (Rulli, Garbarino, Amodei, Salazar). Some libertarian/contrarian Republicans occasionally vote against symbolic resolutions on principle, but that is idiosyncratic, not a whip‑line. [1]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — Text - H.Res.813 (119th): Italian and Ital…[8]Newsweek — Rep. Thomas Massie as sole ‘no’ on symbolic resolution (example of c…
• Outside pressure: Italian‑American groups (OSDIA, Columbus‑aligned coalitions) are publicly supportive of recognizing Italian‑American heritage during October, which reinforces bipartisan comfort voting yes on a neutral text. [7]Order Sons and Daughters of Italy in America (OSDIA) — Italian American Heritag…[9]Columbus Heritage Coalition — Columbus Heritage Coalition — mission and advocac…

Key legislators and plausible swing votes

Substance is not controversial; the gating factors are sponsors, committee leadership, and a small handful of predictable contrarians.

• Rosa DeLauro (D-CT), sponsor — signal of mainstream Dem backing; paired with multiple GOP cosponsors. [1]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — Text - H.Res.813 (119th): Italian and Ital…
• Rep. Mike Rulli (R-OH), cosponsor and vocal Italian‑American caucus lead; just introduced separate pro‑Columbus legislation — expect him to advocate for floor time with GOP leaders. [1]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — Text - H.Res.813 (119th): Italian and Ital…[10]Office of Rep. Michael Rulli — Rulli introduces Italian Heroes and Heritage Act…
• Committee gatekeepers: Oversight Chair James Comer (R-KY) and Ranking Member Robert Garcia (D-CA). While a simple resolution doesn’t need markup, their signals to leadership matter at the margins; Garcia is the newly elected top Democrat on the panel. [11]House Oversight Committee (Majority) — Comer to Return as Chairman of Oversight…[12]House Oversight Committee Democrats — Rep. Robert Garcia’s statement on electio…
• Potential “no/present” outliers on principle: Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) has a record of solo or small‑bloc opposition to symbolic resolutions; not a coalition, but a predictable handful could peel off. [8]Newsweek — Rep. Thomas Massie as sole ‘no’ on symbolic resolution (example of c…

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

This lives or dies on floor time, not vote count.

• Floor control: Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Leader Steve Scalise decide whether/when to run a suspension calendar; with the GOP holding a 220–215 House, leadership bandwidth is tight during the shutdown. [6]CBS News — The 119th Congress begins: balance of power in House (220–215) and S…
• Current constraint: The ongoing October 2025 shutdown has prompted leadership to ration floor activity; Johnson has leveraged scheduling in other contexts (e.g., delaying a swearing‑in), underscoring that symbolic items may slip. [3]Reuters — Trump administration freezes $11B in infrastructure amid Oct. 2025 sh…[4]Politico — Johnson refuses to swear in Grijalva, underscores scheduling leverag…
• Committee role: As a simple resolution, it can reach the floor without markup; Oversight need not report it for the House to consider it under suspension. [2]Congress.gov (CRS) — CRS In Focus: Suspension of the Rules in the House — prin…
• Senate/White House: No role — simple House resolutions don’t leave the chamber. [5]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Types of Legislation — definition of simple resoluti…
• Broader context: Republicans control both chambers in the 119th; in the Senate, John Thune is Majority Leader. While irrelevant procedurally here, GOP control reduces partisan incentive to block a bipartisan cultural measure in the House. [13]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — partisan control and leadership over…[14]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Lea…

Assessment: likelihood of passage

• Vote math if scheduled (suspension of the rules): High confidence. Bipartisan sponsor slate, neutral text, and established practice for heritage‑month measures point to easy clearance above the two‑thirds threshold, even with a few principled ‘no’ votes. [1]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — Text - H.Res.813 (119th): Italian and Ital…[2]Congress.gov (CRS) — CRS In Focus: Suspension of the Rules in the House — prin…
• Timing before Oct 31, 2025: Moderate risk due to the shutdown and leadership’s tactical use of floor time; this could slip off the October calendar despite broad support. [3]Reuters — Trump administration freezes $11B in infrastructure amid Oct. 2025 sh…[4]Politico — Johnson refuses to swear in Grijalva, underscores scheduling leverag…
• Overall: Likelihood of passage (this session if scheduled) — High. Near‑term (before month’s end) — Moderate. [2]Congress.gov (CRS) — CRS In Focus: Suspension of the Rules in the House — prin…

Sourcing notes

Key factual anchors and institutional context are drawn from primary/official sources and major outlets.

• Bill text/status and bipartisan sponsors on Congress.gov. [1]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — Text - H.Res.813 (119th): Italian and Ital…
• House and Senate control/leadership for the 119th Congress. [6]CBS News — The 119th Congress begins: balance of power in House (220–215) and S…[13]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — partisan control and leadership over…[14]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Lea…
• House procedure for suspensions and the nature of simple resolutions. [2]Congress.gov (CRS) — CRS In Focus: Suspension of the Rules in the House — prin…[5]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Types of Legislation — definition of simple resoluti…
• Shutdown conditions and leadership leverage affecting floor scheduling. [3]Reuters — Trump administration freezes $11B in infrastructure amid Oct. 2025 sh…[4]Politico — Johnson refuses to swear in Grijalva, underscores scheduling leverag…
• Interest‑group posture on Italian‑American Heritage Month. [7]Order Sons and Daughters of Italy in America (OSDIA) — Italian American Heritag…[9]Columbus Heritage Coalition — Columbus Heritage Coalition — mission and advocac…
• Pattern example of symbolic‑resolution contrarian votes. [8]Newsweek — Rep. Thomas Massie as sole ‘no’ on symbolic resolution (example of c…

Key metrics