119-S-332 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

Breakdown: Expected support and opposition by party and caucus

Scope: S.332 directs the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum to conduct a nationwide study of Holocaust education; it is bipartisan and sits in Senate ENR with the National Parks Subcommittee holding a hearing on December 9, 2025. A substantially similar House companion (H.R.768) is parked in Education & the Workforce. [7]Congress.gov — Text of S.332 (119th Congress)[3]Congress.gov — S.332 — Holocaust Education and Antisemitism Lessons Act (119th…[4]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR National Parks Subcommittee hearing notice (inc…[5]Congress.gov — H.R.768 — Holocaust Education and Antisemitism Lessons Act (119t…

• Senate Republicans: Institutional posture is favorable. Republicans hold the majority (Thune as Majority Leader), ENR Chair is Mike Lee, and the National Parks Subcommittee is chaired by Steve Daines, who convened the 12/9 hearing listing S.332. No organized GOP opposition has surfaced; the bill imposes no mandates and minimal cost. [1]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate Party Division – 119th Congress[2]Senate Republican Leader Office — Thune delivers first remarks as Senate Majori…[8]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — Heinrich, Lee announce ENR subcommittee assignments…[9]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR Subcommittee on National Parks – roster/jurisdi…[4]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR National Parks Subcommittee hearing notice (inc…
• Senate Democrats/Independents: Sponsor Jacky Rosen; Democratic cosponsors include Blumenthal, Booker, and Gallego. Expect broad support given subject matter and the bill’s limited scope. [3]Congress.gov — S.332 — Holocaust Education and Antisemitism Lessons Act (119th…[10]Congress.gov — S.332 — Cosponsors
• House Democrats: The House companion (H.R.768) is led by Josh Gottheimer and has 100+ cosponsors, signaling strong caucus support. [5]Congress.gov — H.R.768 — Holocaust Education and Antisemitism Lessons Act (119t…
• House Republicans: The bill is routed to Education & the Workforce, chaired by Tim Walberg, a decentralization advocate. While GOP leadership has not opposed, scheduling is at the chair’s discretion; as of now the bill has only been referred. [11]Office of Rep. Tim Walberg — Walberg elected Chair, House Education & the Workf…[12]Congress.gov — H.R.768 — All actions
• Interest groups: Organized Jewish community groups (ADL, AJC, JFNA) publicly back the measure. Teacher-union politics around ADL materials created noise in mid‑2025, but the NEA Executive Committee ultimately rejected a member‑driven push to sever ties—reducing near‑term blowback risk. [13]Office of Sen. Jacky Rosen — Rosen & Lankford introduce HEAL Act; endorsements…[14]News result · turn 4 #13[15]Axios — NEA Executive Committee rejects proposal to cut ties with ADL
• Precedent signal: The Never Again Education Act (2020) cleared the Senate by voice vote after ENR discharge and passed the House 393–5—evidence that Holocaust‑education measures typically draw bipartisan votes. [6]Congress.gov — Never Again Education Act (2019–2020) – action history

Key Legislators (pivotal to outcome)

Gatekeepers and credible persuaders who can accelerate or stall the bill at each choke point.

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

Focus: where leverage sits and how the bill moves.

• Senate control and posture: GOP holds the majority; Thune sets floor strategy. S.332 has had a clean National Parks Subcommittee hearing (12/9/25). Next steps are ENR markup and either unanimous‑consent passage or a quick voice vote if hotlined; this aligns with how the 2020 Never Again Education Act moved (ENR discharge, voice vote). [1]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate Party Division – 119th Congress[2]Senate Republican Leader Office — Thune delivers first remarks as Senate Majori…[4]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR National Parks Subcommittee hearing notice (inc…[6]Congress.gov — Never Again Education Act (2019–2020) – action history
• Committee leverage: ENR Chair Mike Lee and National Parks Subcommittee Chair Steve Daines are the gatekeepers for reporting the bill. Neither has staked a public opposition; docketing the hearing itself is materially positive. [8]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — Heinrich, Lee announce ENR subcommittee assignments…[9]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR Subcommittee on National Parks – roster/jurisdi…
• House path: The companion (H.R.768) sits in Education & the Workforce (Chair Tim Walberg). With 100+ cosponsors, the most economical path is a no‑amendment, low‑cost study bill reported by voice and considered on suspension. Timing hinges on Walberg’s bandwidth and broader education fights; no further action yet beyond referral. [5]Congress.gov — H.R.768 — Holocaust Education and Antisemitism Lessons Act (119t…[11]Office of Rep. Tim Walberg — Walberg elected Chair, House Education & the Workf…[12]Congress.gov — H.R.768 — All actions
• Leadership calculus: House and Senate leaders have political incentive to show action against antisemitism without expanding federal mandates. The fact pattern—bipartisan sponsors/cosponsors, study scope, ENR hearing—supports a leadership green‑light once committees report. [3]Congress.gov — S.332 — Holocaust Education and Antisemitism Lessons Act (119th…[10]Congress.gov — S.332 — Cosponsors[4]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR National Parks Subcommittee hearing notice (inc…
• External pressure: Pro‑bill endorsements (ADL, AJC, JFNA) create positive coverage; NEA’s internal ADL fight ended with leadership rejecting a break—reducing organized education‑sector resistance to a museum‑led study. [13]Office of Sen. Jacky Rosen — Rosen & Lankford introduce HEAL Act; endorsements…[15]Axios — NEA Executive Committee rejects proposal to cut ties with ADL

Assessment: Likelihood of passage

Estimate is based on verified control of chambers, bill history, committee posture, coalition size, and relevant precedent.

• Drivers of support: bipartisan sponsor set (Rosen–Lankford), low cost/scope, ENR Subcommittee hearing completed, strong outside endorsements. [3]Congress.gov — S.332 — Holocaust Education and Antisemitism Lessons Act (119th…[10]Congress.gov — S.332 — Cosponsors[4]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR National Parks Subcommittee hearing notice (inc…[13]Office of Sen. Jacky Rosen — Rosen & Lankford introduce HEAL Act; endorsements…
• Key Senate risk: calendar/priority rather than votes. If ENR delays markup, floor action slips; still, leadership can package/hotline later in the work period. Precedent favors easy passage once reported. [2]Senate Republican Leader Office — Thune delivers first remarks as Senate Majori…[6]Congress.gov — Never Again Education Act (2019–2020) – action history
• Key House risk: committee gatekeeping amid broader K‑12 fights; Chair Walberg’s decentralization rhetoric suggests scrutiny of anything perceived as federal K‑12 expansion, though this bill tasks USHMM with a study and avoids mandates. [11]Office of Rep. Tim Walberg — Walberg elected Chair, House Education & the Workf…[17]Web search · turn 8 #5
• Net: High odds in Senate; in the House, odds climb materially if the chair notices a markup or leaders slot it under suspension with a pre‑cleared rule. [12]Congress.gov — H.R.768 — All actions

Sourcing notes

Core factual anchors used in this whip count.

• Bill text, status, hearing notation, and cosponsors: Congress.gov S.332 and H.R.768 pages. [3]Congress.gov — S.332 — Holocaust Education and Antisemitism Lessons Act (119th…[7]Congress.gov — Text of S.332 (119th Congress)[10]Congress.gov — S.332 — Cosponsors[5]Congress.gov — H.R.768 — Holocaust Education and Antisemitism Lessons Act (119t…
• Senate/House institutional control and leaders: Senate party division page; Thune majority‑leader office; Speaker.gov. [1]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate Party Division – 119th Congress[2]Senate Republican Leader Office — Thune delivers first remarks as Senate Majori…[16]Speaker.gov — Speaker of the House – Official site of Speaker Mike Johnson
• ENR/National Parks Subcommittee leadership and the 12/9/25 hearing agenda listing S.332: ENR press note, subcommittee page, committee hearing page. [8]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — Heinrich, Lee announce ENR subcommittee assignments…[9]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR Subcommittee on National Parks – roster/jurisdi…[4]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR National Parks Subcommittee hearing notice (inc…
• Precedent vote history (Never Again Education Act): Congress.gov action log. [6]Congress.gov — Never Again Education Act (2019–2020) – action history
• Outside endorsements and education‑sector context: Rosen/Lankford release quoting ADL, AJC, JFNA; Axios NEA coverage. [13]Office of Sen. Jacky Rosen — Rosen & Lankford introduce HEAL Act; endorsements…[15]Axios — NEA Executive Committee rejects proposal to cut ties with ADL