Analyses / Whip Count Analysis / 119 · HR 5371 Whip Count Analysis

119-HR-5371 Democratic Party Leader Whip Count Analysis

119 · HR 5371 Continuing Appropriations, Agriculture, Legislative Branch, Military Construction and Veterans Affairs, and Extensions Act, 2026

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Continuing Appropriations, Agriculture, Legislative Branch, Military Construction and Veterans Affairs, and Extensions Act, 2026This act ends the government shutdown that began on October 1, 2025, by...

House passed H.R. 5371 (217-212). Senate twice failed on 60‑vote passage thresholds in September (44-48; 55-45), but on Nov. 9 invoked cloture on the motion to proceed, 60-40. Schumer opposes a “clean” CR absent action on ACA subsidies; unions like NATCA and AFGE urge a clean CR to end the shutdown. Passage now hinges on holding ~49–50 GOP votes (with Paul opposed) and retaining at least 7–10 Dem/Ind swing votes who supported the Nov. 9 cloture to proceed, under continued 60‑vote constraints. Likelihood: moderate, contingent on maintaining the bipartisan coalition through cloture on the bill or a 60‑vote UC for final passage. [1]Clerk.House.gov — U.S. House Clerk – Roll Calls 281 & 280 (H.R. 5371)[2]Congress.gov — Congressional Record Daily Digest – Sept. 19, 2025 (60‑vote UC a…[3]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 535 – Sept. 30, 2025 (H.R. 5371)[4]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 610 – Nov. 9, 2025 (Cloture on Motion t…[5]Senate Democratic Caucus — Senate Democrats – Schumer floor remarks opposing GO…[6]NATCA — NATCA – Official statement urging a clean CR to end shutdown[7]Washington Post — Washington Post – AFGE calls for a ‘clean’ bill to end shutdo…

Analyzed as
Democratic Party Leader
Published
10 Nov 2025
Updated
10 Nov 2025
Tags
whip-count · continuing-resolution · senate
Unvetted
01 · Section

Breakdown: current votes and party-line expectations

Where things stand as of Nov. 10, 2025.

  • House: Passed 217–212 on Sept. 19 under a closed rule; GOP 216 yea, Dems 210 nay/1 yea per floor tallies. [1]Clerk.House.gov — U.S. House Clerk – Roll Calls 281 & 280 (H.R. 5371)[8]House Rules Committee — House Rules Committee – H.R. 5371 (Closed Rule)
  • Senate: Twice failed on passage under 60‑vote UC thresholds in Sept. (44–48 on Sept. 19; 55–45 on Sept. 30). On Nov. 9, cloture on the motion to proceed was invoked 60–40. Final passage will still require either 60 for cloture on the bill or another 60‑vote UC. [2]Congress.gov — Congressional Record Daily Digest – Sept. 19, 2025 (60‑vote UC a…[3]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 535 – Sept. 30, 2025 (H.R. 5371)[4]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 610 – Nov. 9, 2025 (Cloture on Motion t…[9]CRS/Congress.gov — CRS Report RL30360 – Filibusters and Cloture in the Senate
  • Leadership/public stance: Senate GOP (Thune) pushing a short, “clean” CR; Senate Dem leader (Schumer) opposes the House bill absent action on ACA premium tax credits. [10]Senate GOP Leader Office — Senate Republican Leader site – Thune’s first remark…[5]Senate Democratic Caucus — Senate Democrats – Schumer floor remarks opposing GO…
  • Policy contents (headline items): short‑term CR to Nov. 21, 2025 plus health/VHA/telehealth and FDA/OTC user‑fee extenders. [11]Congress.gov — H.R. 5371 Engrossed Text (CR + Extenders)
  • Outside pressure: unions representing federal workers and the aviation sector urge enactment of a clean CR to end the shutdown (NATCA, AFGE; airlines). [6]NATCA — NATCA – Official statement urging a clean CR to end shutdown[7]Washington Post — Washington Post – AFGE calls for a ‘clean’ bill to end shutdo…[12]Reuters — Reuters – Airlines for America urges end to shutdown over aviation ri…
02 · Section

Key legislators and pivotal swing votes

Focus on Senators whose public votes and caucus profiles make them decisive on cloture and final passage.

  • Democrats/Independents who voted YES on Nov. 9 cloture to proceed: Durbin (IL), Fetterman (PA), Hassan (NH), Kaine (VA), Rosen (NV), Shaheen (NH), Cortez Masto (NV), and King (I‑ME). These eight are the core crossover bloc Republicans must retain for cloture on the bill/final passage. [4]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 610 – Nov. 9, 2025 (Cloture on Motion t…
  • Democrats who voted NO on the same cloture (potential targets if conditions change): Warner (VA), Peters (MI), Slotkin (MI), Kelly (AZ), Warnock (GA), Ossoff (GA), Baldwin (WI), Murray (WA), Wyden (OR), and others; flipping 2–3 of these would create added cushion. [4]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 610 – Nov. 9, 2025 (Cloture on Motion t…
  • Republican holdouts/risks: Sen. Rand Paul (KY) voted NO on the Nov. 9 cloture to proceed, signaling at least one GOP defect on process—leadership must keep the rest of the conference unified. [4]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 610 – Nov. 9, 2025 (Cloture on Motion t…
  • House side (for any amended ping‑pong): The bill passed with near‑party‑line GOP support (216 R yeas) and near‑unanimous Democratic opposition (210 D nays), indicating limited Dem pickup if a Senate amendment forces a second vote. [1]Clerk.House.gov — U.S. House Clerk – Roll Calls 281 & 280 (H.R. 5371)
03 · Section

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

Institutional leverage points and how leadership choices affect the whip.

  • Senate procedure: Absent unanimous consent to lower the bar, legislation faces a 60‑vote cloture hurdle; UC agreements can also set a 60‑vote threshold for passage, which is how the bill twice failed in September. Expect leadership to press for cloture on the bill or a 60‑vote UC. [9]CRS/Congress.gov — CRS Report RL30360 – Filibusters and Cloture in the Senate[2]Congress.gov — Congressional Record Daily Digest – Sept. 19, 2025 (60‑vote UC a…
  • Majority Leader Thune controls floor time and can force repeated cloture cycles; his public posture is to pass a short, “clean” CR first and debate health policy later. [10]Senate GOP Leader Office — Senate Republican Leader site – Thune’s first remark…
  • Minority Leader Schumer’s stated position is to withhold most Democratic votes unless the CR also addresses ACA enhanced premium tax credits; that has driven earlier Senate failures at 60. [5]Senate Democratic Caucus — Senate Democrats – Schumer floor remarks opposing GO…
  • Interest‑group dynamics: NATCA and AFGE are publicly urging Congress to enact a clean CR to end the shutdown—giving cover to crossover Democrats, especially from aviation hubs or federal‑workforce‑heavy states. Airlines for America has also warned of growing aviation risk. [6]NATCA — NATCA – Official statement urging a clean CR to end shutdown[7]Washington Post — Washington Post – AFGE calls for a ‘clean’ bill to end shutdo…[12]Reuters — Reuters – Airlines for America urges end to shutdown over aviation ri…
  • Substance of the CR that leadership is selling: funding through Nov. 21, 2025, with short extensions for Medicare telehealth flexibilities, hospital‑at‑home, rural/ambulance add‑ons, and FDA OTC user‑fee authorities—framed as noncontroversial tempo keepers. [11]Congress.gov — H.R. 5371 Engrossed Text (CR + Extenders)
04 · Section

Assessment: likely vote count and odds of passage

Pragmatic estimate grounded in public votes and leverage (as of Nov. 10, 2025).

House (if repassed after Senate changes)
217yea baseline; Dem pickup limited given Sept. vote
Senate GOP baseline
49likely yeas (minus Paul), assuming conference unity
Dem/Ind crossover needed for 60
11if 49 GOP yeas; fewer if more Rs cross over than Paul
Crossover currently demonstrated
8Dem/Ind yeas on 11/9 motion to proceed
Gap to 60 on final
2to 3 votes, depending on GOP unity
  • Path to 60: Hold all GOP except Paul and retain the 8 Dem/Ind who voted to proceed; then add 2–3 additional Democratic votes (most plausibly moderates from purple states) or secure a time‑certain vote on ACA subsidies as side‑process to peel a few more. [4]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 610 – Nov. 9, 2025 (Cloture on Motion t…
  • Counter‑pressure: Schumer continues to frame the House bill as an unacceptable “status quo” CR without ACA action, making additional Dem pickups costly unless leadership offers a credible, enforceable path on ACA subsidies. [5]Senate Democratic Caucus — Senate Democrats – Schumer floor remarks opposing GO…
  • Mobilization vs. backlash: Labor and aviation safety pressure helps moderates justify a procedural ‘yes’; progressive groups are likely to resist unless there’s an ACA commitment. Coalition‑management cost for Democrats is real but mitigated if the shutdown impact grows. [6]NATCA — NATCA – Official statement urging a clean CR to end shutdown[7]Washington Post — Washington Post – AFGE calls for a ‘clean’ bill to end shutdo…
  • Bottom line: Likelihood of Senate passage is moderate. Expect a narrow window if leadership couples the CR with a separate, time‑certain vote or framework on ACA subsidies to keep at least 10 Dem/Ind on board while GOP holds together. [4]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 610 – Nov. 9, 2025 (Cloture on Motion t…[3]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 535 – Sept. 30, 2025 (H.R. 5371)
05 · Section

Core sourcing for this whip

Primary, nonpartisan records and leadership/interest‑group statements used in this assessment.

  • House roll call and rule: Clerk and House Rules records. [1]Clerk.House.gov — U.S. House Clerk – Roll Calls 281 & 280 (H.R. 5371)[8]House Rules Committee — House Rules Committee – H.R. 5371 (Closed Rule)
  • Senate votes and floor records (including 60‑vote UC failures and Nov. 9 cloture to proceed). [2]Congress.gov — Congressional Record Daily Digest – Sept. 19, 2025 (60‑vote UC a…[3]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 535 – Sept. 30, 2025 (H.R. 5371)[4]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 610 – Nov. 9, 2025 (Cloture on Motion t…
  • Senate procedure explainer (cloture/UC mechanics). [9]CRS/Congress.gov — CRS Report RL30360 – Filibusters and Cloture in the Senate
  • Leadership statements: Thune (majority) and Schumer (minority). [10]Senate GOP Leader Office — Senate Republican Leader site – Thune’s first remark…[5]Senate Democratic Caucus — Senate Democrats – Schumer floor remarks opposing GO…
  • CR policy text/summary. [11]Congress.gov — H.R. 5371 Engrossed Text (CR + Extenders)
  • Interest‑group pressure: NATCA, AFGE, and airline industry signals. [6]NATCA — NATCA – Official statement urging a clean CR to end shutdown[7]Washington Post — Washington Post – AFGE calls for a ‘clean’ bill to end shutdo…[12]Reuters — Reuters – Airlines for America urges end to shutdown over aviation ri…
Sources cited
  1. [1] U.S. House Clerk – Roll Calls 281 & 280 (H.R. 5371) Clerk.House.gov
  2. [2] Congressional Record Daily Digest – Sept. 19, 2025 (60‑vote UC and failures) Congress.gov
  3. [3] U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 535 – Sept. 30, 2025 (H.R. 5371) Senate.gov
  4. [4] U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 610 – Nov. 9, 2025 (Cloture on Motion to Proceed to H.R. 5371) Senate.gov
  5. [5] Senate Democrats – Schumer floor remarks opposing GOP ‘clean’ CR Senate Democratic Caucus
  6. [6] NATCA – Official statement urging a clean CR to end shutdown NATCA
  7. [7] Washington Post – AFGE calls for a ‘clean’ bill to end shutdown Washington Post
  8. [8] House Rules Committee – H.R. 5371 (Closed Rule) House Rules Committee
  9. [9] CRS Report RL30360 – Filibusters and Cloture in the Senate CRS/Congress.gov
  10. [10] Senate Republican Leader site – Thune’s first remarks as Majority Leader Senate GOP Leader Office
  11. [11] H.R. 5371 Engrossed Text (CR + Extenders) Congress.gov
  12. [12] Reuters – Airlines for America urges end to shutdown over aviation risks Reuters

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