119-S-2113 DC Insider Procedural Viability Check

Bottom line and score

Pragmatic read: this is a symbolic pressure bill. It has a cross-pressured coalition (Paul–Sanders) and a House companion, but the core policy (ending IORB) runs straight into monetary-policy and financial-stability concerns. It died as an NDAA amendment and won’t move in regular order this Congress absent a major macro shock that flips industry, Fed, and leadership posture. Composite score: 1/5. [2]Independent Community Bankers of America — Senate votes down amendment to ban i…[1]Congress.gov — S.2113 - End the Fed’s Big Bank Bailout Act (Congress.gov)

Context anchors: Senate GOP majority; Senate Banking chaired by Tim Scott (R) with Warren (D) ranking; S.2113 introduced 6/18/25 and still in committee. [3]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Party Division (119th Congress)[4]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate Banking Committee — Leadership[1]Congress.gov — S.2113 - End the Fed’s Big Bank Bailout Act (Congress.gov)

Institutional context (as of Dec 13, 2025)

Viability is dictated by chamber control, committee leadership, and whether the policy can hitch a ride on a must-pass vehicle.

• Senate: Republicans hold the majority in the 119th Congress. Banking Committee is under GOP control with Chair Tim Scott; Ranking Member Elizabeth Warren. [3]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Party Division (119th Congress)[4]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate Banking Committee — Leadership
• Bill status: S.2113 was introduced by Sen. Rand Paul on 6/18/25; referred to Senate Banking; 1 cosponsor (Sanders). No CBO estimates posted. [5]Web search · turn 1 #2
• Related House activity: A narrower House companion (H.R.146, Prohibition on IOER Act) exists, referred to Financial Services; no movement. [6]Congress.gov — H.R.146 — Prohibition on IOER Act of 2025 (Congress.gov)
• Issue background: The Fed’s authority to pay interest on reserve balances (IORB) is a core monetary-policy tool established by statute and implemented via Regulation D. [7]Federal Reserve — Federal Reserve Board — Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) F…

Procedural Viability Check (by factor)

Each factor scored 0–5 contributes to the composite judgment below.

Key cites: status and cosponsor count; NDAA amendment failure; committee leadership; Fed IORB authority. [5]Web search · turn 1 #2[2]Independent Community Bankers of America — Senate votes down amendment to ban i…[4]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate Banking Committee — Leadership[7]Federal Reserve — Federal Reserve Board — Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) F…

Possible paths (and why they stall)

What could happen procedurally, and the friction points.

1. Regular order in Senate Banking: Requires Chair notice, hearing, and markup. With industry opposition and Fed pushback, leadership has little incentive to burn time. Outcome: held at desk or fails in markup.
2. Appropriations rider (FSGG): Central-bank operations riders are typically stripped by managers or violate scope; any serious attempt draws a veto threat from monetary-policy stakeholders and moderates. Outcome: stripped in conference.
3. Must-pass piggyback (NDAA/FAA/Farm Bill): NDAA proxy vote already showed overwhelming opposition (83–14). Managers will not reopen that fight. Outcome: blocked by managers, likely ruled out in UC agreements. [2]Independent Community Bankers of America — Senate votes down amendment to ban i…
4. Reconciliation: Not plausible. Even if a budget resolution opened a door, Byrd Rule “merely incidental” policy change risk is high given the non-budgetary monetary-policy effects; Senate Parliamentarian would be a major hurdle.

Stakeholder and power dynamics

Who can move or kill this.

• Committee gatekeepers: Chair Tim Scott and Ranking Member Warren control whether this sees daylight; neither has championed a ban on IORB. Expect hold. [4]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate Banking Committee — Leadership
• Financial sector: Trade groups (ICBA, BPI) lobbied against; Senate rejected the concept on NDAA—signal to leadership not to spend floor time here. [2]Independent Community Bankers of America — Senate votes down amendment to ban i…[8]Web search · turn 4 #6
• Issue owners: HSGAC can hold oversight hearings (and did under Paul), but Banking retains legislative jurisdiction—so hearings don’t translate into markups. [9]U.S. Senate — HSGAC: Paul holds hearing on Fed’s IORB regime (Dec. 11, 2025)
• Cross-chamber: House GOP controls the floor, and a related House bill exists, but Financial Services hasn’t moved it—signal of limited appetite. [6]Congress.gov — H.R.146 — Prohibition on IOER Act of 2025 (Congress.gov)

Calendar and timing

Timing windows matter more than text at this stage.

• First-session window is effectively closed; managers are focused on NDAA/omnibus and nominations.
• Second session (2026) is compressed by primaries and conventions; leadership avoids market-sensitive fights near the election calendar. The NDAA defeat hardens that bias. [2]Independent Community Bankers of America — Senate votes down amendment to ban i…

Composite score and takeaway

Roll-up across the rubric.

Composite viability (0–5)

1 — symbolic. Messaging pressure on the Fed; no near-term path through Banking or must-pass vehicles.

Bottom line: Unless leadership trades for something very large, S.2113 will sit in committee; any live action will remain oversight hearings outside Banking jurisdiction, not legislative movement. [9]U.S. Senate — HSGAC: Paul holds hearing on Fed’s IORB regime (Dec. 11, 2025)