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119-HR-5784 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

119 · HR 5784 AI–WISE Act

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Artificial Intelligence Wisdom for Innovative Small Enterprises Act or the AI–WISE ActThis bill requires the Small Business Administration (SBA) to establish and maintain educational resources and...

Bipartisan SBA AI‑literacy bill reported 27–0 with no new authorization. With a narrow GOP House and GOP Senate, this is a low‑cost, low‑controversy “committee package” candidate: high odds to clear the House on suspension or a simple rule; decent odds for Senate UC if no holds from SBA skeptics. Main risks are floor time and a single‑senator hold (e.g., Paul) rather than votes. Overall passage odds: high. [1]Congress.gov — Actions - H.R.5784 (119th): AI–WISE Act | Congress.gov[2]Congress.gov — Text - H.R.5784 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): AI–WISE Act | Cong…[3]Congress.gov — Congressional Record Daily Digest — December 12, 2025[4]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress[5]SDPB (South Dakota Public Broadcasting) — Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority…

Analyzed as
DC Insider
Published
14 Dec 2025
Updated
14 Dec 2025
Tags
whip-count · House-Senate · small-business
Unvetted
01 · Section

Breakdown: likely support by party and caucus

What we know from the paper trail: bipartisan intro, unanimous committee report, and zero new spending authority. That combination usually sails in both chambers if leadership gives it time. [6]Office of Rep. Troy Downing — Downing, Scholten Introduce Legislation to Help S…[1]Congress.gov — Actions - H.R.5784 (119th): AI–WISE Act | Congress.gov[2]Congress.gov — Text - H.R.5784 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): AI–WISE Act | Cong…

Committee vote
27Yea–0 Nay
House cosponsors
6(4D, 2R)
House control
1R majority
Senate control
1R majority
House report
119405H. Rept.
  • House Democrats: Broad support expected. Lead sponsor is Rep. Hillary Scholten; Dems added multiple cosponsors. Unanimous 27–0 committee vote signals no organized Dem opposition. [7]Page view · turn 3 #0[8]Congress.gov — All Info - H.R.5784 (119th): AI–WISE Act | Congress.gov (cospons…[1]Congress.gov — Actions - H.R.5784 (119th): AI–WISE Act | Congress.gov
  • House Republicans: Favorable. GOP co‑lead (Rep. Troy Downing) and cosponsor Brian Fitzpatrick; text includes “No additional amounts are authorized,” satisfying CUTGO instincts. Committee Republicans joined a 27–0 report. [6]Office of Rep. Troy Downing — Downing, Scholten Introduce Legislation to Help S…[2]Congress.gov — Text - H.R.5784 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): AI–WISE Act | Cong…[1]Congress.gov — Actions - H.R.5784 (119th): AI–WISE Act | Congress.gov
  • Institutional context (House): Bill was reported and listed in the Daily Digest (H. Rept. 119‑405), alongside other Small Business items—typical pre‑floor packaging. Expect scheduling via suspension or a structured rule if leadership wants amendments. [3]Congress.gov — Congressional Record Daily Digest — December 12, 2025
  • Senate Democrats: Likely comfortable; Dems have backed AI training concepts (e.g., Cantwell’s small‑biz AI training bill last Congress). No spending increase here, lowering friction. [9]Senate Commerce Committee — Cantwell, Moran Introduce Bill to Help Small Busine…
  • Senate Republicans: Generally favorable; jurisdiction sits with Chair Joni Ernst at Small Business, and the GOP holds the floor through Majority Leader Thune. Expect to try UC; any hold would slow, not kill. [10]Office of Sen. Joni Ernst — Ernst Announces Committee Assignments for 119th Con…[11]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Lea…
02 · Section

Key legislators and swing dynamics

Votes aren’t the issue; gatekeeping and potential holds are.

  • House gatekeepers: Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Leader Steve Scalise control floor time; neither has flagged problems with SBA small‑biz micro‑bills this work period. If they slot this on a suspension day, it likely clears two‑thirds easily given the 27–0 markup. [12]AP News — Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House speaker[13]Office of the House Majority Leader — House Majority Leader Steve Scalise – off…[1]Congress.gov — Actions - H.R.5784 (119th): AI–WISE Act | Congress.gov
  • Committee champion: House Small Business Chair Roger Williams moved a slate of SBA bills; his buy‑in is implicit in the unanimous report and committee docketing. [14]House Small Business Committee (Republicans) — Meet Chairman Roger Williams | H…[15]LegiStorm — Committee Cliff Notes: Week of Nov. 17, 2025 (Small Business markup…
  • Senate pathfinders: Majority Leader John Thune (floor control) and Small Business Chair Joni Ernst (committee control). Thune has emphasized keeping Senate process intact (i.e., filibuster stays), so UC is the efficient path if no one objects. [11]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Lea…[5]SDPB (South Dakota Public Broadcasting) — Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority…
  • Possible Senate friction: Sen. Rand Paul routinely leverages holds on SBA‑related matters; a hold would force time‑consuming cloture (60 votes) or negotiation, but not sink the bill on substance. [16]Office of Sen. Rand Paul — Statement from Small Business Committee Ranking Memb…[17]Congressional Record — Congressional Record excerpt – Sen. Paul objection relat…
  • Political cover: External climate favors AI literacy for small firms (NFIB data on usage; Chamber’s national AI training initiative). That reduces ideological blowback against a no‑cost SBA education product. [18]NFIB — NFIB: Small Business and Technology Survey (AI usage)[19]U.S. Chamber of Commerce — U.S. Chamber launches Small Business B(AI)sics initi…
03 · Section

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

Control, calendars, and channels matter more than ideology here.

  • Chamber control: Republicans hold both chambers in the 119th, with Johnson as Speaker and Thune as Majority Leader—so committee‑cleared, low‑cost small‑biz bills are generally welcomed if they don’t touch pay‑fors. [4]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress[12]AP News — Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House speaker[11]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Lea…
  • House posture: GOP leadership schedules; committee reported H.R. 5784 and related SBA bills on Dec. 12 (H. Rept. 119‑405 et al.). Packaging several committee bills for one floor block is typical before adjournment. [3]Congress.gov — Congressional Record Daily Digest — December 12, 2025
  • Senate posture: GOP majority (reported at 53–47) and leadership commitment to regular order/filibuster imply UC or hotline first; failing that, floor time becomes the main constraint. [5]SDPB (South Dakota Public Broadcasting) — Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority…
  • Executive branch: No SAP located; the White House’s recent AI posture has focused on preemption of state AI rules—separate lane from SBA training—so no obvious administration roadblock. [20]Washington Post — Trump signs executive order threatening states over AI laws
04 · Section

Assessment: odds of passage

Bottom line: this is a classic low‑drama SBA education bill with bipartisan fingerprints and no new money.

  • House: High likelihood of passage. Expect either suspension or a simple rule; 27–0 committee vote and bipartisan sponsors make this a clean “yes” vote. [1]Congress.gov — Actions - H.R.5784 (119th): AI–WISE Act | Congress.gov
  • Senate: Moderate‑to‑high. Best case is UC post‑House; risk vector is a hold (e.g., Paul) that forces time the floor may not spend in December. Substantive opposition is unlikely. [16]Office of Sen. Rand Paul — Statement from Small Business Committee Ranking Memb…
05 · Section

Sourcing (selected)

Core legislative facts from Congress.gov and the Congressional Record; leadership and control verified via official and major outlets; context from stakeholder initiatives.

  • Bill text, CUTGO clause, sponsor info: Congress.gov H.R. 5784. [2]Congress.gov — Text - H.R.5784 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): AI–WISE Act | Cong…
  • Bipartisan intro (Scholten–Downing): Downing press release. [6]Office of Rep. Troy Downing — Downing, Scholten Introduce Legislation to Help S…
  • Committee markup result (27–0) and reporting: Congress.gov actions; Congressional Record listing H. Rept. 119‑405. [1]Congress.gov — Actions - H.R.5784 (119th): AI–WISE Act | Congress.gov[3]Congress.gov — Congressional Record Daily Digest — December 12, 2025
  • House/Senate party control and leaders: 119th Congress overview; Speaker/Leader confirmations. [4]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress[12]AP News — Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House speaker[11]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Lea…
  • Senate Small Business Chair: Ernst announcements and committee site. [10]Office of Sen. Joni Ernst — Ernst Announces Committee Assignments for 119th Con…[22]Senate Small Business Committee — Chair – U.S. Senate Committee on Small Busine…
  • Potential Senate hold behavior (Paul on SBA matters): prior objections/records. [16]Office of Sen. Rand Paul — Statement from Small Business Committee Ranking Memb…[17]Congressional Record — Congressional Record excerpt – Sen. Paul objection relat…
  • External climate for small‑biz AI literacy: NFIB survey; U.S. Chamber B(AI)sics initiative. [18]NFIB — NFIB: Small Business and Technology Survey (AI usage)[19]U.S. Chamber of Commerce — U.S. Chamber launches Small Business B(AI)sics initi…
Sources cited
  1. [1] Actions - H.R.5784 (119th): AI–WISE Act | Congress.gov Congress.gov
  2. [2] Text - H.R.5784 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): AI–WISE Act | Congress.gov Congress.gov
  3. [3] Congressional Record Daily Digest — December 12, 2025 Congress.gov
  4. [4] 119th United States Congress Wikipedia
  5. [5] Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority Leader as 119th Congress sworn in SDPB (South Dakota Public Broadcasting)
  6. [6] Downing, Scholten Introduce Legislation to Help Small Businesses Develop AI Literacy Office of Rep. Troy Downing
  7. [7] Page view · turn 3 #0
  8. [8] All Info - H.R.5784 (119th): AI–WISE Act | Congress.gov (cosponsors count) Congress.gov
  9. [9] Cantwell, Moran Introduce Bill to Help Small Business Leverage AI Tools (2024) Senate Commerce Committee
  10. [10] Ernst Announces Committee Assignments for 119th Congress Office of Sen. Joni Ernst
  11. [11] Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Leader Office of Sen. John Thune
  12. [12] Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House speaker AP News
  13. [13] House Majority Leader Steve Scalise – official site Office of the House Majority Leader
  14. [14] Meet Chairman Roger Williams | House Committee on Small Business House Small Business Committee (Republicans)
  15. [15] Committee Cliff Notes: Week of Nov. 17, 2025 (Small Business markup list) LegiStorm
  16. [16] Statement from Small Business Committee Ranking Member Rand Paul on SBA funding Planned Parenthood Office of Sen. Rand Paul
  17. [17] Congressional Record excerpt – Sen. Paul objection related to SBA/PPP Congressional Record
  18. [18] NFIB: Small Business and Technology Survey (AI usage) NFIB
  19. [19] U.S. Chamber launches Small Business B(AI)sics initiative U.S. Chamber of Commerce
  20. [20] Trump signs executive order threatening states over AI laws Washington Post
  21. [21] The Leader’s Floor Lookout: Friday, December 12, 2025 Office of the House Majority Leader
  22. [22] Chair – U.S. Senate Committee on Small Business & Entrepreneurship (Republican) Senate Small Business Committee

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