Analyses / Whip Count Analysis / 119 · HR 3616 Whip Count Analysis

119-HR-3616 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

119 · HR 3616 Reliable Power Act

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Reliable Power ActThis bill directs the electric reliability organization (i.e., the North American Electric Reliability Corporation) to conduct annual long-term assessments of the reliability of...

House passed H.R. 3616 (225-203) with seven Democratic crossovers; the Senate GOP majority and ENR Chair control give it a clear path to a committee report, but the 60‑vote cloture threshold and consolidated environmental opposition make standalone floor passage unlikely absent trade‑offs (e.g., pairing with transmission/permitting). Overall: committee prospects high; floor prospects low-to-moderate if packaged. [1]Library of Congress — Congress.gov: H.R. 3616 – Reliable Power Act (119th) – ac…[2]APPA — American Public Power Association: House Passes Reliable Power Act (list…[3]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — Senate ENR: Heinrich, Lee…[4]Wikipedia — Wikipedia: U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources (1…[5]Office of Sen. John Thune — Sen. John Thune press release: First remarks as Sen…

Analyzed as
DC Insider
Published
19 Dec 2025
Updated
19 Dec 2025
Tags
whip-count · energy · FERC
Unvetted
01 · Section

Breakdown: party/caucus positioning and chamber context

H.R. 3616 (Reliable Power Act) passed the House on December 17, 2025 by 225–203 and was received in the Senate on December 18 and referred to Energy & Natural Resources (ENR). [1]Library of Congress — Congress.gov: H.R. 3616 – Reliable Power Act (119th) – ac…

  • House vote pattern: bipartisan but largely party‑line; seven Democrats joined Republicans (Luis Correa, Henry Cuellar, Don Davis, Jared Golden, Adam Gray, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Eugene Vindman). [2]APPA — American Public Power Association: House Passes Reliable Power Act (list…
  • House GOP whip framing listed the passage at 225–203, consistent with the Clerk’s record. [6]House Republican Cloakroom — Republican Cloakroom: Vote Series II – Wed, Dec 17…[1]Library of Congress — Congress.gov: H.R. 3616 – Reliable Power Act (119th) – ac…
  • Senate control: Republicans hold 53 seats in the 119th Congress; Sen. John Thune is Majority Leader and has publicly committed to preserving the 60‑vote filibuster. Implication: the bill needs bipartisan support to clear cloture. [7]CBS News — CBS News: New Congress 2025 – balance of power overview (Republicans…[5]Office of Sen. John Thune — Sen. John Thune press release: First remarks as Sen…
  • Committee gatekeepers: The bill sits in Senate ENR, chaired by Sen. Mike Lee (R‑UT) with Sen. Martin Heinrich (D‑NM) as Ranking Member; ENR’s membership ratio favors reporting a majority‑backed bill. [3]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — Senate ENR: Heinrich, Lee…[4]Wikipedia — Wikipedia: U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources (1…
  • Issue salience: NERC/FERC have highlighted rising reliability risks (load growth, extreme weather), which outside advocates cite to argue for action; this bolsters proponents’ messaging but does not by itself supply 60 Senate votes. [8]Reuters — Reuters: NERC says half the U.S. at higher risk of power shortfalls o…[9]Reuters — Reuters: FERC warns hot weather and demand to pressure U.S. grid this…
Chamber/Node Status / Likely Alignment Notes / Evidence
House (floor) Passed 225–203; small Dem crossover Seven Dem yes votes identified by APPA; GOP Cloakroom logs tally. [2]APPA — American Public Power Association: House Passes Reliable Power Act (list…[6]House Republican Cloakroom — Republican Cloakroom: Vote Series II – Wed, Dec 17…
Senate (control) GOP 53; cloture still 60 Thune leads majority; filibuster retained. [7]CBS News — CBS News: New Congress 2025 – balance of power overview (Republicans…[5]Office of Sen. John Thune — Sen. John Thune press release: First remarks as Sen…
Senate ENR Chair Lee (R), RM Heinrich (D) Jurisdictional gate; R majority on panel. [3]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — Senate ENR: Heinrich, Lee…[4]Wikipedia — Wikipedia: U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources (1…
Allied interests APPA, U.S. Chamber, America’s Power supportive Public endorsements/backing. [10]Web search · turn 2 #1[11]U.S. Chamber of Commerce — U.S. Chamber of Commerce: Letter supporting H.R. 361…[12]America’s Power — America’s Power: Statement on House passage of Reliable Power…
Opposition bloc LCV and aligned env. groups opposed Organized opposition signaling scores/alerts. [13]LCV — League of Conservation Voters: Letter urging opposition to H.R. 3616 et a…
02 · Section

Key legislators and pivotal votes

Focus is on ENR members who can shape or block a report, and cross‑pressure Democrats needed to reach 60 on the floor.

  • Mike Lee (R‑UT), ENR Chair: controls hearings/markup pace; ideological fit favors moving the bill. The Senate companion (S.3034, sponsor Sen. Cotton) is already in ENR, giving a Senate vehicle. [3]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — Senate ENR: Heinrich, Lee…[14]Library of Congress — Congress.gov: S.3034 – Reliable Power Act (Senate compani…
  • Martin Heinrich (D‑NM), ENR Ranking Member: leads the Democratic response in committee; can coordinate unified minority opposition and amendments. [3]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — Senate ENR: Heinrich, Lee…
  • Angus King (I‑ME), ENR member and frequent reliability/transmission voice: likely to press for transmission/resilience guardrails if the bill advances; a plausible getable vote only with substantive concessions. [4]Wikipedia — Wikipedia: U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources (1…[15]Office of Sen. Angus King — Sen. Angus King press release (2024): Push to stren…
  • Lisa Murkowski (R‑AK), senior R voice on reliability: unlikely to oppose, but her focus on balanced reliability policy means her input could drive any compromise language. [16]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — Senate ENR (archive): Mur…
  • Potential Democratic targets for 60: moderates from data‑center or manufacturing‑heavy states (e.g., VA, NV, CO, AZ) will be courted; however, consolidated environmental opposition (LCV) raises the political price for crossover votes. [13]LCV — League of Conservation Voters: Letter urging opposition to H.R. 3616 et a…
  • House crossover signal: The seven Democratic yes votes provide a limited template of districts responsive to reliability framing (ME, CA, NC, VA, WA), but Senate analogs are fewer and harder to pry without a trade (e.g., transmission/permitting). [2]APPA — American Public Power Association: House Passes Reliable Power Act (list…
03 · Section

Leadership influence and procedure

Leadership posture and rules determine the path more than policy merits.

  • Senate floor control: Majority Leader Thune sets timing but has affirmed preserving the filibuster; without 60, a standalone motion to proceed is vulnerable. [5]Office of Sen. John Thune — Sen. John Thune press release: First remarks as Sen…
  • Committee leverage: With ENR under GOP control, the majority can report the bill (or companion) even on a party‑line vote, positioning it for floor consideration or inclusion in a larger package. [4]Wikipedia — Wikipedia: U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources (1…
  • Reconciliation not viable: expanding FERC’s pre‑final rule review authority is a policy change with, at most, incidental budget effects—Byrd Rule territory—so reconciliation cannot carry it. [17]Congressional Research Service — CRS: The Budget Reconciliation Process: The Se…
  • Packaging dynamics: Given organized green opposition, the most realistic path is to pair this bill with items Democrats want (e.g., transmission planning/cost‑allocation or streamlined interconnection) to assemble 60. Recent reliability/transmission warnings from regulators provide rhetorical cover for such a trade. [9]Reuters — Reuters: FERC warns hot weather and demand to pressure U.S. grid this…
  • House context: The chamber already cleared the bill; further House leverage would be in conference or as part of a House‑originated energy package sent to the Senate. [1]Library of Congress — Congress.gov: H.R. 3616 – Reliable Power Act (119th) – ac…
04 · Section

Assessment: whip count and probability

Bottom line: committee passage likely; Senate floor passage depends on bipartisan packaging.

House passage (12/17/2025)
225Yea vs. 203 Nay
Documented Democratic crossovers (House)
7Members
Senate GOP seats (119th)
53Seats
Votes needed to end debate
60Cloture
  • Committee outlook (Senate ENR): High likelihood of a reported bill in the majority’s form (or the Cotton companion), given chair’s control and R majority. Confidence: high. [3]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — Senate ENR: Heinrich, Lee…[4]Wikipedia — Wikipedia: U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources (1…
  • Floor outlook (standalone): Without at least ~7 Democratic/Independent votes, cloture fails. Current interest‑group alignment suggests limited crossover appetite. Confidence: moderate. Overall likelihood: low. [7]CBS News — CBS News: New Congress 2025 – balance of power overview (Republicans…[5]Office of Sen. John Thune — Sen. John Thune press release: First remarks as Sen…[13]LCV — League of Conservation Voters: Letter urging opposition to H.R. 3616 et a…
  • Floor outlook (packaged with transmission/permitting pieces): If paired with provisions Democrats prioritize, prospects improve to moderate by creating a trade that frames reliability plus build‑out. Confidence: moderate. [9]Reuters — Reuters: FERC warns hot weather and demand to pressure U.S. grid this…
05 · Section

Sourcing (selected)

Key documents and reporting underpinning this analysis.

  • Congress.gov bill page and actions for H.R. 3616 (House passage; Senate referral). [1]Library of Congress — Congress.gov: H.R. 3616 – Reliable Power Act (119th) – ac…
  • Republican Cloakroom vote sheet (House tallies); APPA recap naming Democratic crossovers. [6]House Republican Cloakroom — Republican Cloakroom: Vote Series II – Wed, Dec 17…[2]APPA — American Public Power Association: House Passes Reliable Power Act (list…
  • Senate ENR leadership/membership (Lee chair; Heinrich ranking). [3]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — Senate ENR: Heinrich, Lee…[4]Wikipedia — Wikipedia: U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources (1…
  • Senate majority and filibuster posture (Thune as Majority Leader; 60‑vote rule preserved). [7]CBS News — CBS News: New Congress 2025 – balance of power overview (Republicans…[5]Office of Sen. John Thune — Sen. John Thune press release: First remarks as Sen…
  • Regulatory risk backdrop (NERC long‑term assessment coverage; FERC seasonal outlook). [8]Reuters — Reuters: NERC says half the U.S. at higher risk of power shortfalls o…[9]Reuters — Reuters: FERC warns hot weather and demand to pressure U.S. grid this…
  • Interest‑group alignments: APPA; U.S. Chamber; America’s Power supportive; LCV opposed. [10]Web search · turn 2 #1[11]U.S. Chamber of Commerce — U.S. Chamber of Commerce: Letter supporting H.R. 361…[12]America’s Power — America’s Power: Statement on House passage of Reliable Power…[13]LCV — League of Conservation Voters: Letter urging opposition to H.R. 3616 et a…
  • Senate vehicle (S.3034) lodged in ENR. [14]Library of Congress — Congress.gov: S.3034 – Reliable Power Act (Senate compani…
Sources cited
  1. [1] Congress.gov: H.R. 3616 – Reliable Power Act (119th) – actions and latest status Library of Congress
  2. [2] American Public Power Association: House Passes Reliable Power Act (lists 7 Democratic yes votes) APPA
  3. [3] Senate ENR: Heinrich, Lee announce subcommittee assignments (identifies Lee as Chair; Heinrich as RM) U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources
  4. [4] Wikipedia: U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources (119th; chair, ratio) Wikipedia
  5. [5] Sen. John Thune press release: First remarks as Senate Majority Leader (filibuster posture, agenda) Office of Sen. John Thune
  6. [6] Republican Cloakroom: Vote Series II – Wed, Dec 17, 2025 (includes H.R. 3616 tally) House Republican Cloakroom
  7. [7] CBS News: New Congress 2025 – balance of power overview (Republicans flip Senate to 53 seats) CBS News
  8. [8] Reuters: NERC says half the U.S. at higher risk of power shortfalls over next decade Reuters
  9. [9] Reuters: FERC warns hot weather and demand to pressure U.S. grid this summer (May 15, 2025) Reuters
  10. [10] Web search · turn 2 #1
  11. [11] U.S. Chamber of Commerce: Letter supporting H.R. 3616 (Reliable Power Act) U.S. Chamber of Commerce
  12. [12] America’s Power: Statement on House passage of Reliable Power Act America’s Power
  13. [13] League of Conservation Voters: Letter urging opposition to H.R. 3616 et al. LCV
  14. [14] Congress.gov: S.3034 – Reliable Power Act (Senate companion; in ENR) Library of Congress
  15. [15] Sen. Angus King press release (2024): Push to strengthen FERC transmission planning for reliability Office of Sen. Angus King
  16. [16] Senate ENR (archive): Murkowski remarks emphasizing electric reliability (context on reliability posture) U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources
  17. [17] CRS: The Budget Reconciliation Process: The Senate’s “Byrd Rule” (RL30862) Congressional Research Service

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