Analyses / Whip Count Analysis / 119 · S 1476 Whip Count Analysis

119-S-1476 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

119 · S 1476 M.H. Dutch Salmon Greater Gila Wild and Scenic River Act

park Public Lands and Natural Resources

Bottom line: With Republicans controlling both chambers, ENR chaired by Mike Lee, a subcommittee chaired by John Barrasso, and the Administration formally opposing the Gila wild-and-scenic designations at the 12/2/25 hearing, S.1476 is very unlikely to move as a standalone this Congress. Best case is a late-session lands package trade; otherwise, expect it to stall in committee. Confidence: high. [1]senate.gov — U.S. Senate: Party Division[2]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — Heinrich, Lee Announce Su…[3]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — Public Lands, Forests, an…[4]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — USDA Forest Service testi…

Analyzed as
DC Insider
Published
04 Dec 2025
Updated
04 Dec 2025
Tags
whip-count · public-lands · wild-and-scenic
Unvetted
01 · Section

Breakdown: Where the votes are likely to be

Institutional control and recent committee signals drive the whip. Expect near-unified Democratic support, limited Republican crossover, and a procedural choke point in Senate ENR. [1]senate.gov — U.S. Senate: Party Division[3]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — Public Lands, Forests, an…

  • Senate (53 R – 47 D/I): Democrats and the two Independents who caucus with them are broadly favorable on wild-and-scenic; Republicans control the agenda. Designated hearing held 12/2/25 in ENR’s Public Lands Subcommittee; no markup scheduled. [1]senate.gov — U.S. Senate: Party Division[3]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — Public Lands, Forests, an…
  • Republican conference posture: The Administration (via USDA/Forest Service) opposed S.1476 outright at the hearing, citing conflict with “energy dominance” priorities and eligibility concerns—signaling most GOP members will not help advance it. [4]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — USDA Forest Service testi…
  • Potential GOP crossover: historically possible but narrow (e.g., Collins, Murkowski have supported river/wider public-lands protections in prior congresses). Do not assume more than 1–2 R yes votes absent packaging. [5]U.S. Senate (collins.senate.gov) — Sen. Collins: York River Wild and Scenic leg…[6]League of Conservation Voters — LCV Scorecard: 2019 Public Lands Package (Senat…
  • House (R majority): The companion, H.R. 2903, sits in Natural Resources, chaired by Bruce Westerman. Given the majority’s current land-use agenda, standalone movement is unlikely. [7]Congress.gov — H.R. 2903 — 119th Congress (status page)[8]house.gov — Chairman Bruce Westerman | House Committee on Natural Resources
  • Sponsor/co-sponsor signals: S.1476 is led by Sen. Heinrich with Sen. Luján; House companion by Rep. Vasquez with Reps. Leger Fernández and Stansbury. Expect unified New Mexico Democratic support. [9]Congress.gov — S.1476 — 119th Congress (status page)[10]Web search · turn 14 #1
  • Outside coalition landscape: Strong in-state conservation/recreation backing (New Mexico Wild, Gila Conservation Coalition, American Whitewater); organized local opposition (Heritage Waters Coalition) aligned with extractive/irrigation concerns. [11]New Mexico Wilderness Alliance — New Mexico Wild press release: Diverse Stakeho…[12]Gila Conservation Coalition — Gila Conservation Coalition: Diverse Stakeholders…[13]American Whitewater — American Whitewater: New Mexico’s Rivers get Another Chan…[14]Heritage Waters Coalition — Heritage Waters Coalition (home page)
Caucus Likely stance Notes
Senate Democrats/Independents Yes (near-unanimous) Bill is caucus priority; NM delegation leading. [15]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources (Democratic News) — Heinric…
Senate Republicans Mostly No Administration/USDA opposition; ENR GOP leadership controls calendar. [4]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — USDA Forest Service testi…[2]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — Heinrich, Lee Announce Su…
House Democrats Yes (near-unanimous) All NM Dems on the House bill. [10]Web search · turn 14 #1
House Republicans Mostly No Committee chair and majority agenda prioritize development/permitting over new designations. [8]house.gov — Chairman Bruce Westerman | House Committee on Natural Resources
02 · Section

Key legislators to watch (swing/leverage)

These members can make or break momentum via committee control, cross-party signaling, or local-state equities.

  • Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT), ENR Chair: Controls markup gate; ideological skeptic of new federal land restrictions. If he withholds markup, the bill stalls. [2]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — Heinrich, Lee Announce Su…
  • Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY), Chair—Public Lands, Forests & Mining Subcommittee: Ran the 12/2/25 hearing; can simply not recommend action. [3]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — Public Lands, Forests, an…
  • Sen. John Thune (R-SD), Majority Leader: Has reaffirmed the 60-vote filibuster; won’t burn floor time without broad bipartisan cover or package trade. [16]SDPB — Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority Leader; pledges to preserve filibu…
  • Possible R crossovers: Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) has backed Wild & Scenic designations (e.g., York River) and broad lands packages; Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) has a record of negotiating conservation packages. Even so, two crossovers don’t reach 60. [5]U.S. Senate (collins.senate.gov) — Sen. Collins: York River Wild and Scenic leg…[6]League of Conservation Voters — LCV Scorecard: 2019 Public Lands Package (Senat…
  • House Chair Bruce Westerman (R-AR), Natural Resources: Gatekeeper for H.R. 2903 in a majority generally moving the opposite direction on public-lands restrictions. [8]house.gov — Chairman Bruce Westerman | House Committee on Natural Resources
  • NM delegation (Heinrich, Luján; Vasquez, Leger Fernández, Stansbury): Unified advocates; can extract concessions in a larger lands/Western-state package but lack agenda control this Congress. [15]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources (Democratic News) — Heinric…[10]Web search · turn 14 #1
03 · Section

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

The math is secondary to control of the calendar, committee gates, and floor rules.

  • Senate control: Republicans hold 53 seats; Thune leads and has pledged to preserve the 60‑vote threshold—meaning S.1476 needs bipartisan support or packaging. [1]senate.gov — U.S. Senate: Party Division[16]SDPB — Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority Leader; pledges to preserve filibu…
  • Committee posture: ENR is chaired by Mike Lee with Heinrich as Ranking; the subcommittee held a hearing on 12/2/25 that included S.1476, but the Forest Service (USDA) testified in opposition—strong signal against majority scheduling. [2]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — Heinrich, Lee Announce Su…[3]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — Public Lands, Forests, an…[4]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — USDA Forest Service testi…
  • House posture: H.R. 2903 is lodged in Natural Resources (Westerman, chair). The majority’s 2025 agenda has emphasized expanded resource development and land sales authorities, not new designations—reducing odds of a House markup. [8]house.gov — Chairman Bruce Westerman | House Committee on Natural Resources[17]Web search · turn 18 #6
  • Interest-group leverage: Conservation/recreation coalition (New Mexico Wild, Gila Conservation Coalition, American Whitewater) provides cover for D moderates; Heritage Waters Coalition organizes local land/water-rights opposition—frequently cited by R offices. [11]New Mexico Wilderness Alliance — New Mexico Wild press release: Diverse Stakeho…[12]Gila Conservation Coalition — Gila Conservation Coalition: Diverse Stakeholders…[13]American Whitewater — American Whitewater: New Mexico’s Rivers get Another Chan…[14]Heritage Waters Coalition — Heritage Waters Coalition (home page)
  • Packaging pathway: Historically, river/wilderness bills move in omnibus lands deals (e.g., 2019 NR management act) when leadership trades priorities. That model requires willing majority managers; current signals are unfavorable. [6]League of Conservation Voters — LCV Scorecard: 2019 Public Lands Package (Senat…
04 · Section

Assessment (vote count range and probability)

Pragmatic read focused on procedure and leverage, not preferences.

Senate GOP seats
53seats
Votes needed to invoke cloture
60ayes
S.1476 Senate cosponsors
1member
H.R. 2903 House cosponsors
2members
Hearing date (Senate ENR Subcommittee)
2025Dec 2
River miles proposed
446miles
  • Senate whip (expected): 47 D/I likely yes; 0–2 R yes (best case Murkowski/Collins). Result: 47–49, well short of 60. Committee bottleneck likely prevents any floor attempt. Probability the bill reaches a Senate floor vote in 2025–26: low. [5]U.S. Senate (collins.senate.gov) — Sen. Collins: York River Wild and Scenic leg…[6]League of Conservation Voters — LCV Scorecard: 2019 Public Lands Package (Senat…
  • House whip (expected): Near-unanimous D yes; broad R no. Without Senate momentum or leadership buy‑in, House action is improbable. [8]house.gov — Chairman Bruce Westerman | House Committee on Natural Resources
  • Most plausible path: Inclusion in a broader late‑session lands package paired with GOP priorities (e.g., permitting/resource provisions). Current leadership/administration posture makes that trade unlikely this Congress. [4]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — USDA Forest Service testi…
  • Overall likelihood of enactment this Congress: low (confidence: high). Core reasons—GOP control of both chambers, hostile Administration testimony, and ENR gatekeeping. [1]senate.gov — U.S. Senate: Party Division[4]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — USDA Forest Service testi…
05 · Section

Key public positions and documents

Primary source anchors for the analysis above.

  • Bill status and text: S.1476 (Congress.gov); H.R. 2903 (Congress.gov). [9]Congress.gov — S.1476 — 119th Congress (status page)[7]Congress.gov — H.R. 2903 — 119th Congress (status page)
  • Committee activity: ENR Public Lands Subcommittee hearing docket (12/2/25) listing S.1476. [3]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — Public Lands, Forests, an…
  • Administration position: USDA/Forest Service written testimony opposing S.1476. [4]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — USDA Forest Service testi…
  • Institutional control: Senate party division (Senate.gov) and Majority Leader Thune’s filibuster stance. [1]senate.gov — U.S. Senate: Party Division[16]SDPB — Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority Leader; pledges to preserve filibu…
  • Committee leadership context: ENR chair/ranking announcement. House Natural Resources chair page. [2]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — Heinrich, Lee Announce Su…[8]house.gov — Chairman Bruce Westerman | House Committee on Natural Resources
  • Allied and opposing coalitions: New Mexico Wild and partners; Gila Conservation Coalition; American Whitewater; Heritage Waters Coalition. [11]New Mexico Wilderness Alliance — New Mexico Wild press release: Diverse Stakeho…[12]Gila Conservation Coalition — Gila Conservation Coalition: Diverse Stakeholders…[13]American Whitewater — American Whitewater: New Mexico’s Rivers get Another Chan…[14]Heritage Waters Coalition — Heritage Waters Coalition (home page)
  • Historic packaging precedent: 2019 public‑lands package passage demonstrating cross‑party trades. [6]League of Conservation Voters — LCV Scorecard: 2019 Public Lands Package (Senat…
Sources cited
  1. [1] U.S. Senate: Party Division senate.gov
  2. [2] Heinrich, Lee Announce Subcommittee Assignments for the 119th Congress U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources
  3. [3] Public Lands, Forests, and Mining Subcommittee Hearing (Dec. 2, 2025) U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources
  4. [4] USDA Forest Service testimony (Christopher French) re S.1476 and other bills (Dec. 2, 2025) U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources
  5. [5] Sen. Collins: York River Wild and Scenic legislation introduction U.S. Senate (collins.senate.gov)
  6. [6] LCV Scorecard: 2019 Public Lands Package (Senate) League of Conservation Voters
  7. [7] H.R. 2903 — 119th Congress (status page) Congress.gov
  8. [8] Chairman Bruce Westerman | House Committee on Natural Resources house.gov
  9. [9] S.1476 — 119th Congress (status page) Congress.gov
  10. [10] Web search · turn 14 #1
  11. [11] New Mexico Wild press release: Diverse Stakeholders Applaud Reintroduction New Mexico Wilderness Alliance
  12. [12] Gila Conservation Coalition: Diverse Stakeholders Applaud Reintroduction Gila Conservation Coalition
  13. [13] American Whitewater: New Mexico’s Rivers get Another Chance in Congress! American Whitewater
  14. [14] Heritage Waters Coalition (home page) Heritage Waters Coalition
  15. [15] Heinrich, Rep. Vasquez Lead Introduction of Wild and Scenic Legislation to Protect Gila River U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources (Democratic News)
  16. [16] Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority Leader; pledges to preserve filibuster SDPB
  17. [17] Web search · turn 18 #6

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