Analyses / Whip Count Analysis / 119 · S 2113 Whip Count Analysis

119-S-2113 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

119 · S 2113 End the Fed’s Big Bank Bailout Act

account_balance_wallet Finance and Financial Sector

S.2113 (End the Fed’s Big Bank Bailout Act) sits in Senate Banking with one listed cosponsor (Sanders) and no committee action; when Senator Paul forced the same policy via NDAA amendment on October 9, 2025, it failed 14–83—an overwhelming bipartisan rebuke that is the cleanest whip proxy. Republicans control the White House, Senate (Thune, Majority Leader), and House (Speaker Johnson), but Banking Chair Tim Scott and House Financial Services Chair French Hill control the gates; the Fed, ICBA, and BPI have publicly warned elimination of IORB would be economically disruptive, giving leadership zero incentive to burn floor time. Result: vanishingly small path this Congress; best shot would be messaging votes or non‑germane amendments that won’t meet 60 votes or Byrd standards. [1]Congress.gov — All Info - S.2113 — 119th Congress (2025–2026)[2]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote #562, 119th Congress, 1st Session (10/9…[3]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Lea…[4]Reuters — Trump’s Republicans reelect Mike Johnson U.S. House Speaker despite d…[5]Senate Banking Committee — United States Senate Committee on Banking, Housing,…[6]House Financial Services Committee — U.S. House Committee on Financial Services…[7]Federal Reserve Board — Federal Reserve Board — Interest on Reserve Balances (I…[8]Independent Community Bankers of America — ICBA — Senate votes down ICBA‑oppose…[9]Bank Policy Institute — BPI Statement on Senate Vote Rejecting NDAA Amendment o…

Analyzed as
DC Insider
Published
13 Dec 2025
Updated
13 Dec 2025
Tags
whip-count · S.2113 · Federal Reserve
Unvetted
01 · Section

Breakdown — likely support and opposition

Anchor: the Senate already tested the core policy on October 9, 2025; the Paul NDAA amendment to prohibit IORB/ONRRP failed 14–83 (60‑vote threshold). Treat that as the whip baseline absent material concessions. [2]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote #562, 119th Congress, 1st Session (10/9…[10]Senate Periodical Press Gallery — United States Senate Periodical Press Gallery…

  • Senate, Republicans: Leadership holds the majority, but conference opposition was broad on the 10/9 vote; only a small populist/libertarian bloc backed Paul. Expect most GOP members (including banking/finance chairs and leadership) to remain no. [3]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Lea…[2]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote #562, 119th Congress, 1st Session (10/9…
  • Senate, Democrats/Independents: Overwhelmingly opposed on 10/9; one notable exception is Sen. Sanders, who is the lone listed cosponsor of S.2113. Conference position remains “no.” [2]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote #562, 119th Congress, 1st Session (10/9…[1]Congress.gov — All Info - S.2113 — 119th Congress (2025–2026)
  • House, Republicans: Majority party controls the floor but Financial Services Chair French Hill sets the choke point; the House companion concept (H.R.146, Davidson) has no cosponsors and has not moved. Expect limited support beyond a populist subset. [6]House Financial Services Committee — U.S. House Committee on Financial Services…[11]Congress.gov — H.R.146 — Prohibition on IOER Act of 2025 (status and summary)
  • House, Democrats: Institutional and Fed‑independence arguments plus industry/Fed warnings keep most Democrats opposed; a few progressives may flirt with the concept, but leadership will not prioritize it. [7]Federal Reserve Board — Federal Reserve Board — Interest on Reserve Balances (I…
  • Interest‑group/technical backdrop: The Fed warns eliminating IORB would be “extraordinarily disruptive”; ICBA and BPI publicly opposed the NDAA amendment. These positions provide political cover for no votes in both parties. [7]Federal Reserve Board — Federal Reserve Board — Interest on Reserve Balances (I…[8]Independent Community Bankers of America — ICBA — Senate votes down ICBA‑oppose…[9]Bank Policy Institute — BPI Statement on Senate Vote Rejecting NDAA Amendment o…
Chamber Control (119th) Key Gatekeeper Where it sits / last action Party whip outlook
Senate Republican control (Thune, Majority Leader) Banking Chair Tim Scott; Ranking Elizabeth Warren Referred to Senate Banking (no markup/mark-up notice). Opposition spans both parties; floor needs 60; prior vote 14–83 against similar policy.
House Republican control (Speaker Mike Johnson) HFSC Chair French Hill House concept H.R.146 stalled in HFSC with 0 cosponsors. Leadership has little incentive; outside coalition is net negative; unlikely to see a rule.
02 · Section

Key legislators and pivotal votes

Given the lopsided test vote, the pivotal players are gatekeepers and message‑vote allies, not classic “swing” votes.

  • Sen. Rand Paul (R‑KY), sponsor; forced the policy test on NDAA. Expect continued amendment attempts, oversight pressure (including via HSGAC), and earned‑media tactics. [12]Web search · turn 6 #1[13]Senate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committee — HSGAC Hearings — “T…
  • Sen. Bernie Sanders (I‑VT), listed cosponsor; shows a narrow left‑right populist lane but lacks broader progressive caucus uptake. [1]Congress.gov — All Info - S.2113 — 119th Congress (2025–2026)
  • Senate leadership: John Thune (Maj. Leader) controls floor time; the prior 14–83 vote makes this a non‑starter for precious floor bandwidth. [3]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Lea…[2]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote #562, 119th Congress, 1st Session (10/9…
  • Senate Banking: Chair Tim Scott and Ranking Member Elizabeth Warren control hearings/markups; their committees’ agendas and the Fed/industry pushback severely limit movement. [5]Senate Banking Committee — United States Senate Committee on Banking, Housing,…[14]Senate Banking Committee (Majority) — Scott Announces Banking Committee Priorit…
  • House leadership/committee: Speaker Mike Johnson and HFSC Chair French Hill set the path; companion concept (H.R.146, Davidson) parked in committee with no cosponsors reinforces low appetite. [4]Reuters — Trump’s Republicans reelect Mike Johnson U.S. House Speaker despite d…[6]House Financial Services Committee — U.S. House Committee on Financial Services…[11]Congress.gov — H.R.146 — Prohibition on IOER Act of 2025 (status and summary)
  • Additional Senate allies on concept: Sens. Ted Cruz and Rick Scott introduced a parallel bill to end IORB, signaling the size of the core yes bloc but not broadening it. [15]Office of Sen. Ted Cruz — Sens. Cruz, Scott Lead Bill to Stop Federal Reserve f…[16]Office of Sen. Rick Scott — Sens. Rick Scott, Ted Cruz Lead Bill to Stop Federa…
03 · Section

Leadership influence and procedure

Control + committees + rules determine outcomes here, not vote‑by‑vote persuasion.

  • Chamber control: GOP runs the White House, Senate (Thune), and House (Speaker Johnson), but leadership tends to avoid divisive floor fights lacking 50+ conference votes and a plausible 60 in the Senate. [17]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — party control and leadership[3]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Lea…[4]Reuters — Trump’s Republicans reelect Mike Johnson U.S. House Speaker despite d…
  • Committee gates: S.2113 is in Senate Banking; no listed markups to date. House analog (H.R.146) is stuck in HFSC. Chairs Scott and Hill can keep these parked. [1]Congress.gov — All Info - S.2113 — 119th Congress (2025–2026)[6]House Financial Services Committee — U.S. House Committee on Financial Services…[11]Congress.gov — H.R.146 — Prohibition on IOER Act of 2025 (status and summary)
  • Senate floor math: The October 9 roll call set a hard precedent—only 14 yeas; any free‑standing bill or amendment would again need 60 unless fully budget‑reconciled, which is unlikely. [2]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote #562, 119th Congress, 1st Session (10/9…
  • Reconciliation feasibility: Eliminating IORB primarily restructures monetary operations; under the Byrd Rule, provisions with merely incidental budget effects are vulnerable to a 60‑vote point of order. Expect the Parliamentarian to sustain such an objection. [18]Web search · turn 11 #0[19]Web search · turn 11 #1
  • Oversight theater: HSGAC held a December 11 hearing themed to IORB “bank welfare,” useful for messaging but outside Banking’s legislative jurisdiction. [13]Senate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committee — HSGAC Hearings — “T…
  • Issue environment: The Fed’s public warnings plus coordinated banking‑trade opposition (ICBA, BPI) give leadership and mainstream members bipartisan cover to keep this off the floor. [7]Federal Reserve Board — Federal Reserve Board — Interest on Reserve Balances (I…[8]Independent Community Bankers of America — ICBA — Senate votes down ICBA‑oppose…[9]Bank Policy Institute — BPI Statement on Senate Vote Rejecting NDAA Amendment o…
04 · Section

Assessment — odds of passage

Bottom line from a whip/sequence perspective: the Senate’s 14–83 test vote and the committee gatekeeping leave no viable path this Congress.

Senate test vote on concept (10/9/25)
14yea (83 nay) [2]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote #562, 119th Congress, 1st Session (10/9…
S.2113 listed cosponsors
1(Sanders) [1]Congress.gov — All Info - S.2113 — 119th Congress (2025–2026)
House companion concept (H.R.146)
0cosponsors; no movement [11]Congress.gov — H.R.146 — Prohibition on IOER Act of 2025 (status and summary)
Senate threshold needed
60votes on most floor paths [19]Web search · turn 11 #1
Chamber control (119th)
2GOP‑controlled chambers (Senate, House) [17]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — party control and leadership
  • Likelihood of committee markup this session: very low. Banking has not noticed a markup; Chairs have higher‑priority items and little caucus demand for this fight. [5]Senate Banking Committee — United States Senate Committee on Banking, Housing,…
  • Likelihood of floor passage via amendment: very low. The October vote is dispositive; nothing material has shifted since. [2]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote #562, 119th Congress, 1st Session (10/9…
  • Likelihood via reconciliation: effectively nil; Byrd exposure is obvious, and leadership won’t spend capital trying to jam a monetary‑policy structural change into a budget vehicle. [18]Web search · turn 11 #0
05 · Section

Sourcing highlights

Key source notes for staff and principals.

  • Bill and status: Congress.gov pages for S.2113 show referral to Senate Banking and the single listed cosponsor. [20]Congress.gov — S.2113 — End the Fed’s Big Bank Bailout Act (overview)[1]Congress.gov — All Info - S.2113 — 119th Congress (2025–2026)
  • Senate test vote: Senate roll‑call Vote #562 on 10/9/25 (Paul Amdt. 3761 to NDAA) — 14 yea, 83 nay, 3 NV. [2]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote #562, 119th Congress, 1st Session (10/9…
  • Committee leadership: Senate Banking official site lists Tim Scott as Chair and Elizabeth Warren as Ranking. [5]Senate Banking Committee — United States Senate Committee on Banking, Housing,…
  • House gatekeeper: HFSC official site lists French Hill as Chair; subcommittee chairs announced publicly. [6]House Financial Services Committee — U.S. House Committee on Financial Services…[21]Web search · turn 4 #7
  • Chamber control/leadership context: GOP majorities; Thune remarks as Majority Leader; Speaker Johnson reelection coverage. [17]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — party control and leadership[3]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Lea…[4]Reuters — Trump’s Republicans reelect Mike Johnson U.S. House Speaker despite d…
  • Fed technical position: Board FAQ on eliminating IORB (9/23/25) warns of major disruption. [7]Federal Reserve Board — Federal Reserve Board — Interest on Reserve Balances (I…
  • Trade associations: ICBA and BPI statements opposing the ban provide cross‑industry opposition markers. [8]Independent Community Bankers of America — ICBA — Senate votes down ICBA‑oppose…[9]Bank Policy Institute — BPI Statement on Senate Vote Rejecting NDAA Amendment o…
  • Related Senate/House efforts: Cruz/Scott FAIR Act releases; Davidson’s H.R.146 page. [15]Office of Sen. Ted Cruz — Sens. Cruz, Scott Lead Bill to Stop Federal Reserve f…[16]Office of Sen. Rick Scott — Sens. Rick Scott, Ted Cruz Lead Bill to Stop Federa…[11]Congress.gov — H.R.146 — Prohibition on IOER Act of 2025 (status and summary)
  • Related oversight: HSGAC 12/11/25 hearing on IORB indicates ongoing message pressure outside Banking’s legislative lane. [13]Senate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committee — HSGAC Hearings — “T…
Sources cited
  1. [1] All Info - S.2113 — 119th Congress (2025–2026) Congress.gov
  2. [2] U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote #562, 119th Congress, 1st Session (10/9/2025) — Paul Amdt. No. 3761 Senate.gov
  3. [3] Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Leader Office of Sen. John Thune
  4. [4] Trump’s Republicans reelect Mike Johnson U.S. House Speaker despite dissent Reuters
  5. [5] United States Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs — Leadership and News Senate Banking Committee
  6. [6] U.S. House Committee on Financial Services — GOP Majority Site House Financial Services Committee
  7. [7] Federal Reserve Board — Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) FAQs (9/23/2025) Federal Reserve Board
  8. [8] ICBA — Senate votes down ICBA‑opposed amendment to ban interest on reserves Independent Community Bankers of America
  9. [9] BPI Statement on Senate Vote Rejecting NDAA Amendment on Interest on Reserve Balances Bank Policy Institute
  10. [10] United States Senate Periodical Press Gallery — Daily Note (Oct. 9, 2025) Senate Periodical Press Gallery
  11. [11] H.R.146 — Prohibition on IOER Act of 2025 (status and summary) Congress.gov
  12. [12] Web search · turn 6 #1
  13. [13] HSGAC Hearings — “The Fed’s Big Bank Welfare Program: Oversight of the Fed’s IORB Regime” (12/11/2025) Senate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committee
  14. [14] Scott Announces Banking Committee Priorities for the 119th Congress Senate Banking Committee (Majority)
  15. [15] Sens. Cruz, Scott Lead Bill to Stop Federal Reserve from Paying Interest on Bank Reserves Office of Sen. Ted Cruz
  16. [16] Sens. Rick Scott, Ted Cruz Lead Bill to Stop Federal Reserve from Wasting $1 Trillion Paying Interest on Bank Reserves Office of Sen. Rick Scott
  17. [17] 119th United States Congress — party control and leadership Wikipedia
  18. [18] Web search · turn 11 #0
  19. [19] Web search · turn 11 #1
  20. [20] S.2113 — End the Fed’s Big Bank Bailout Act (overview) Congress.gov
  21. [21] Web search · turn 4 #7

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