Analyses / Whip Count Analysis / 119 · HR 5694 Whip Count Analysis

119-HR-5694 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

119 · HR 5694 ARTIST Act

landscape Native Americans
Alaska’s Right To Ivory Sales and Tradition Act or the ARTIST ActThis bill prohibits states from imposing bans on marine mammal products produced by Alaska Natives.Specifically, states may not...

House Republicans control the chamber and the Natural Resources Committee; the bill’s sponsor is Alaska’s at‑large Republican Nicholas Begich, with zero House cosponsors as of October 6, 2025. Senate Republicans also hold the majority; the Senate companion (S.254) by Sen. Dan Sullivan, co‑sponsored by Sen. Lisa Murkowski, was reported favorably by the GOP‑led Commerce Committee on June 25, 2025. Expect broad GOP support, organized opposition from coastal Democrats and conservation NGOs defending state ivory bans, and some bipartisan Alaska‑centric backing. Near‑term floor action is slowed by the shutdown-driven House schedule. Odds: House passage likely; Senate passage requires 60 votes and is uncertain unless attached to a broader package. [1]Library of Congress — H.R.5694 — 119th Congress (2025–2026): ARTIST Act — Congr…[2]Library of Congress — S.254 — 119th Congress (2025–2026): ARTIST Act — All Info…[3]Wikipedia — United States Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transporta…[4]House Committee on Natural Resources — House Committee on Natural Resources — C…[5]Wikipedia — House Natural Resources Subcommittee on Water, Wildlife and Fisheri…[6]U.S. House of Representatives — Rep. Val Hoyle — press release: Ranking Member,…[7]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — party control and leadership (Senate…[8]Senate GOP Leader Office — Senate Republican Leader site — Thune’s first remark…[9]Axios — Axios — Speaker Mike Johnson rejects Jeffries’ shutdown debate amid ext…

Analyzed as
DC Insider
Published
07 Oct 2025
Updated
08 Oct 2025
Tags
whipcount · MMPA · Alaska Natives
Vetted
01 · Section

Breakdown: expected support/opposition by party and caucus

What we can say with confidence based on verified positions and institutional alignments.

  • House GOP: Likely supportive. Sponsor is Rep. Nicholas Begich (R‑AK‑AL); bill referred to House Natural Resources (GOP‑chaired). No House cosponsors listed yet (introduced October 6, 2025). [1]Library of Congress — H.R.5694 — 119th Congress (2025–2026): ARTIST Act — Congr…[4]House Committee on Natural Resources — House Committee on Natural Resources — C…
  • House Democrats: Expect organized opposition from coastal/state‑delegation members where broad state ivory bans exist (e.g., CA, NY, NJ, OR, WA, HI), often aligned with NRDC/Humane Society positions. [10]WalrusIvory.org (Kawerak, Inc.) — WalrusIvory.org — Current Laws; states with b…[11]NRDC — NRDC blog — California’s ivory ban scope (includes narwhal/whale/walrus)
  • Senate GOP: Generally favorable; companion bill S.254 is led by Sen. Dan Sullivan with Sen. Lisa Murkowski as cosponsor and was reported favorably by the GOP‑led Commerce Committee on June 25, 2025. [2]Library of Congress — S.254 — 119th Congress (2025–2026): ARTIST Act — All Info…
  • Senate Democrats/Independents: Resistance expected among members from states with existing ivory trafficking bans and among conservation‑oriented members; any floor action must clear the 60‑vote cloture threshold under Majority Leader John Thune’s stated commitment to preserve the filibuster. [10]WalrusIvory.org (Kawerak, Inc.) — WalrusIvory.org — Current Laws; states with b…[12]News result · turn 5 #16
  • Interest‑group landscape: Alaska Native organizations (e.g., Eskimo Walrus Commission; Kawerak/WalrusIvory.org coalition) publicly support clarifying/strengthening MMPA protections for Alaska Native handicrafts; conservation NGOs defend state bans that also sweep in marine mammal ivory. [13]U.S. Senate — Sen. Dan Sullivan press release — ARTIST Act support from Eskimo…[14]WalrusIvory.org (Kawerak, Inc.) — WalrusIvory.org — About Us (coalition led/fun…[11]NRDC — NRDC blog — California’s ivory ban scope (includes narwhal/whale/walrus)
  • Institutional context: House majority is Republican; Senate majority is Republican. Committee gatekeepers relevant to path are GOP. [7]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — party control and leadership (Senate…
02 · Section

Key legislators and pivotal votes

Members with agenda control or state/caucus equities most likely to determine the outcome.

  • House sponsor/gate: Rep. Nicholas Begich (R‑AK‑AL); bill sits in House Natural Resources. Chair Bruce Westerman (R‑AR) controls markup timing; Water, Wildlife & Fisheries Subcommittee chaired by Rep. Harriet Hageman (R‑WY); Ranking Member Val Hoyle (D‑OR). [1]Library of Congress — H.R.5694 — 119th Congress (2025–2026): ARTIST Act — Congr…[4]House Committee on Natural Resources — House Committee on Natural Resources — C…[5]Wikipedia — House Natural Resources Subcommittee on Water, Wildlife and Fisheri…[6]U.S. House of Representatives — Rep. Val Hoyle — press release: Ranking Member,…
  • Senate companion: Sen. Dan Sullivan (R‑AK) sponsor; Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R‑AK) cosponsor. Reported favorably by Senate Commerce (Chair Ted Cruz; Ranking Member Maria Cantwell). [2]Library of Congress — S.254 — 119th Congress (2025–2026): ARTIST Act — All Info…[3]Wikipedia — United States Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transporta…
  • Leadership context: Speaker Mike Johnson controls House floor; currently limiting schedule amid a shutdown fight. In the Senate, Majority Leader John Thune sets the calendar and has reaffirmed the 60‑vote standard, shaping strategy toward bipartisan consent or package‑attachment. [9]Axios — Axios — Speaker Mike Johnson rejects Jeffries’ shutdown debate amid ext…[8]Senate GOP Leader Office — Senate Republican Leader site — Thune’s first remark…
  • Potential pressure points: Democratic senators and representatives from states with broad ivory bans (CA, NY, NJ, OR, WA, HI) will face NGO‑backed pressure to oppose federal preemption; Alaska delegation and Native organizations are active proponents. [10]WalrusIvory.org (Kawerak, Inc.) — WalrusIvory.org — Current Laws; states with b…[11]NRDC — NRDC blog — California’s ivory ban scope (includes narwhal/whale/walrus)[13]U.S. Senate — Sen. Dan Sullivan press release — ARTIST Act support from Eskimo…
03 · Section

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

Where power, procedure, and timing intersect for this bill.

  • House procedure: Expect initial hearing/markup in the Water, Wildlife & Fisheries Subcommittee, then full Natural Resources. With GOP control of committee ratios and chair’s agenda power, the bill can be reported on a party‑line vote. Floor timing is constrained while the Speaker keeps the chamber largely out of session during the shutdown. [15]Web search · turn 4 #3[5]Wikipedia — House Natural Resources Subcommittee on Water, Wildlife and Fisheri…[9]Axios — Axios — Speaker Mike Johnson rejects Jeffries’ shutdown debate amid ext…
  • House floor strategy: Suspension of the rules (two‑thirds) is unlikely given NGO opposition and coastal Dem resistance; more plausible is a structured rule with a narrow GOP majority, if leadership prioritizes it post‑shutdown. Majority control/context supports that path. [7]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — party control and leadership (Senate…
  • Senate procedure: S.254 already cleared committee; next step is placement on the Senate Calendar and either unanimous consent or a cloture vote. Given the preserved filibuster, practical path is to hotline UC or attach to a moving vehicle (e.g., an oceans/fisheries or Coast Guard package) to assemble limited but sufficient bipartisan cover. [2]Library of Congress — S.254 — 119th Congress (2025–2026): ARTIST Act — All Info…[12]News result · turn 5 #16
  • Preemption politics: The substance is federal preemption of certain state wildlife‑trade laws. That triggers elevated pushback from delegations representing states with bans and their attorneys general, while Alaska Native rights and MMPA’s existing Native exemption underpin the pro‑bill coalition. [10]WalrusIvory.org (Kawerak, Inc.) — WalrusIvory.org — Current Laws; states with b…[16]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — Alaska Native Han…
04 · Section

Assessment: likelihood of passage

Estimate reflects chamber control, verified bill status, committee posture, stakeholder alignments, and current schedule constraints.

  • House: Likely to clear committee on a party‑line or near‑party‑line vote. Post‑shutdown, a structured rule could pass with a narrow GOP majority, absent unusual defections from members representing ban states. Confidence: moderate‑to‑high. [4]House Committee on Natural Resources — House Committee on Natural Resources — C…[5]Wikipedia — House Natural Resources Subcommittee on Water, Wildlife and Fisheri…[7]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — party control and leadership (Senate…
  • Senate: Committee‑reported status is a positive signal, but a floor path still needs bipartisan votes to reach 60 or a UC agreement; opposition from coastal Democrats is the main hurdle. Confidence: moderate. [2]Library of Congress — S.254 — 119th Congress (2025–2026): ARTIST Act — All Info…[12]News result · turn 5 #16
  • Overall: Moderate chance this Congress. Best shot is as part of a negotiated package with narrow, Alaska‑specific scope intact; stand‑alone floor time is less certain amid crowded fiscal calendars. [2]Library of Congress — S.254 — 119th Congress (2025–2026): ARTIST Act — All Info…[9]Axios — Axios — Speaker Mike Johnson rejects Jeffries’ shutdown debate amid ext…
House passage probability (operative estimate)
65%
Senate passage probability (operative estimate)
45%
States with broad ivory bans cited by advocates
6states
Senate ARTIST Act cosponsors
2senators
05 · Section

Sourcing (core claims and where they’re verified)

Key facts and institutional levers cited from primary/official sources and major outlets.

  • Bill text/status in House: sponsor, referral, date, zero cosponsors as of 10/06/2025. [1]Library of Congress — H.R.5694 — 119th Congress (2025–2026): ARTIST Act — Congr…
  • Senate companion status: S.254 reported favorably 06/25/2025; cosponsor list (Murkowski). [2]Library of Congress — S.254 — 119th Congress (2025–2026): ARTIST Act — All Info…
  • Committee gatekeepers: House Natural Resources chair (Westerman), subcommittee chair (Hageman), subcommittee ranking (Hoyle). [4]House Committee on Natural Resources — House Committee on Natural Resources — C…[5]Wikipedia — House Natural Resources Subcommittee on Water, Wildlife and Fisheri…[6]U.S. House of Representatives — Rep. Val Hoyle — press release: Ranking Member,…
  • Senate Commerce leadership (Cruz chair; Cantwell ranking). [3]Wikipedia — United States Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transporta…
  • Chamber control/leadership: GOP majorities; Senate Majority Leader Thune; House Speaker Johnson. [7]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress — party control and leadership (Senate…[8]Senate GOP Leader Office — Senate Republican Leader site — Thune’s first remark…[9]Axios — Axios — Speaker Mike Johnson rejects Jeffries’ shutdown debate amid ext…
  • MMPA Alaska Native exemption (baseline law). [16]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — Alaska Native Han…
  • Interest‑group alignments: Alaska Native/EWC/Kawerak support; conservation NGO defense of state bans (scope includes marine mammal ivory in CA). [13]U.S. Senate — Sen. Dan Sullivan press release — ARTIST Act support from Eskimo…[14]WalrusIvory.org (Kawerak, Inc.) — WalrusIvory.org — About Us (coalition led/fun…[11]NRDC — NRDC blog — California’s ivory ban scope (includes narwhal/whale/walrus)
  • State bans landscape cited by Alaska Native coalition materials. [10]WalrusIvory.org (Kawerak, Inc.) — WalrusIvory.org — Current Laws; states with b…
Sources cited
  1. [1] H.R.5694 — 119th Congress (2025–2026): ARTIST Act — Congress.gov (Bill overview/text) Library of Congress
  2. [2] S.254 — 119th Congress (2025–2026): ARTIST Act — All Info (reported favorably; cosponsors) Library of Congress
  3. [3] United States Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation (chair/ranking, 119th) Wikipedia
  4. [4] House Committee on Natural Resources — Chairman Bruce Westerman House Committee on Natural Resources
  5. [5] House Natural Resources Subcommittee on Water, Wildlife and Fisheries — membership (119th) Wikipedia
  6. [6] Rep. Val Hoyle — press release: Ranking Member, Water, Wildlife & Fisheries (119th) U.S. House of Representatives
  7. [7] 119th United States Congress — party control and leadership (Senate & House majorities) Wikipedia
  8. [8] Senate Republican Leader site — Thune’s first remarks as Majority Leader (filibuster preserved) Senate GOP Leader Office
  9. [9] Axios — Speaker Mike Johnson rejects Jeffries’ shutdown debate amid extended shutdown (schedule impact) Axios
  10. [10] WalrusIvory.org — Current Laws; states with broad ivory bans (overview) WalrusIvory.org (Kawerak, Inc.)
  11. [11] NRDC blog — California’s ivory ban scope (includes narwhal/whale/walrus) NRDC
  12. [12] News result · turn 5 #16
  13. [13] Sen. Dan Sullivan press release — ARTIST Act support from Eskimo Walrus Commission/WWF (10/16/24) U.S. Senate
  14. [14] WalrusIvory.org — About Us (coalition led/funded in part by Kawerak) WalrusIvory.org (Kawerak, Inc.)
  15. [15] Web search · turn 4 #3
  16. [16] U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — Alaska Native Handicrafts/Marine Mammals (MMPA exemption guidance) U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service

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