119-HR-1736 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis
119 · HR 1736 Generative AI Terrorism Risk Assessment Act
Armed Forces and National Security
Generative AI Terrorism Risk Assessment ActThis bill requires the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to periodically provide Congress with an assessment of threats to the United States posed by...
H.R. 1736 passed the House by voice under suspension on Nov. 19 and was received/referred to Senate HSGAC on Nov. 20. With Republicans holding a 53–47 Senate under Leader Thune and HSGAC chaired by Rand Paul, the bill’s narrow scope (assessments, explicit privacy/civil-liberties guardrails) positions it for swift unanimous-consent passage after a brief privacy scrub. Watch Paul/Wyden for language tweaks; odds of enactment this work period are high. [1]Congress.gov / GPO — GENERATIVE AI TERRORISM RISK ASSESSMENT ACT; Congressional…[2]Congress.gov — Text - H.R.1736 (Engrossed in House) - includes latest actions a…[3]SDPB (South Dakota Public Broadcasting) — Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority…[4]Senate.gov (Office of Sen. Thune) — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majo…
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Breakdown: expected support/opposition
Scope: Requires DHS/ODNI annual assessments of terrorist use of generative AI; House reported 21–0 in committee, passed House by voice on suspension; Senate received/referral to HSGAC on Nov. 20. [5]GovInfo (GPO) — House Report 119-373 - Generative AI Terrorism Risk Assessment…[1]Congress.gov / GPO — GENERATIVE AI TERRORISM RISK ASSESSMENT ACT; Congressional…[2]Congress.gov — Text - H.R.1736 (Engrossed in House) - includes latest actions a…
- Senate Republicans (majority, 53 seats): Broad support expected; bill is security-focused, non-authority-creating, and aligns with leadership’s posture to move noncontroversial items by consent. GOP controls committee and floor. [3]SDPB (South Dakota Public Broadcasting) — Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority…
- Senate Democrats/Independents: Generally supportive given House voice passage and focus on assessments; privacy/civil liberties members may seek clarifying report language but are unlikely to oppose final passage. [1]Congress.gov / GPO — GENERATIVE AI TERRORISM RISK ASSESSMENT ACT; Congressional…
- Civil-liberties bloc (cross‑party): Potential for holds or amendment requests to reinforce guardrails (e.g., no expansion of surveillance, reporting transparency). Rand Paul and Ron Wyden have recent records pressing these issues. [6]Senate HSGAC — Dr. Paul Warns of AI Surveillance in Government[7]U.S. Senate (Office of Sen. Wyden) — Wyden, Markey demand answers on AI used to…
- House baseline (completed): Homeland Security Committee reported 21–0; floor passage was by voice under suspension on Nov. 19. Title amended; motion to reconsider laid on the table. [5]GovInfo (GPO) — House Report 119-373 - Generative AI Terrorism Risk Assessment…[1]Congress.gov / GPO — GENERATIVE AI TERRORISM RISK ASSESSMENT ACT; Congressional…
- Current status: Received in the Senate 11/20 and referred to Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs (HSGAC). [2]Congress.gov — Text - H.R.1736 (Engrossed in House) - includes latest actions a…
Senate majority
53GOP seats
House committee vote
210 against
House passage
0Voice vote (suspension)
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Key legislators (swing/gatekeepers)
Gatekeepers are concentrated at HSGAC and in floor leadership; privacy hawks could shape language but are unlikely to block. [8]Senate HSGAC — Paul & Peters Announce Senate Homeland Security and Governmental…[4]Senate.gov (Office of Sen. Thune) — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majo…
- Rand Paul (Chair, HSGAC): Primary gatekeeper. Record of objecting to perceived surveillance expansion; likely to insist on explicit privacy/civil‑liberties assurances before clearing UC. Bill already requires DHS to ensure compliance with privacy, civil rights, and civil liberties—reducing friction. [8]Senate HSGAC — Paul & Peters Announce Senate Homeland Security and Governmental…[6]Senate HSGAC — Dr. Paul Warns of AI Surveillance in Government[2]Congress.gov — Text - H.R.1736 (Engrossed in House) - includes latest actions a…
- Gary Peters (Ranking Member, HSGAC): Influential in securing bipartisan clearance; no visible opposition to assessment‑only mandates, and likely supportive if privacy language is respected. [8]Senate HSGAC — Paul & Peters Announce Senate Homeland Security and Governmental…
- John Thune (Majority Leader): Controls floor time; has affirmed preserving the filibuster and standard Senate process, but will package noncontroversial House‑passed homeland bills for UC if committees sign off. [4]Senate.gov (Office of Sen. Thune) — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majo…
- Ron Wyden (D): Not on HSGAC leadership but a consistent privacy watchdog; could press for report language to prevent misuse of AI‑enabled screening or information‑sharing absent strong safeguards. [7]U.S. Senate (Office of Sen. Wyden) — Wyden, Markey demand answers on AI used to…
- House context (completed): August Pfluger (sponsor; CT&I Subcommittee chair) built bipartisan record via hearings with FDD, WINEP, Heritage and secured voice passage—useful leverage with Senate counterparts. [9]House Committee on Homeland Security — The Digital Battlefield: How Terrorists…[1]Congress.gov / GPO — GENERATIVE AI TERRORISM RISK ASSESSMENT ACT; Congressional…
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Leadership influence and procedure
Institutional composition and committee control favor a quick path if privacy nits are resolved. [3]SDPB (South Dakota Public Broadcasting) — Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority…[8]Senate HSGAC — Paul & Peters Announce Senate Homeland Security and Governmental…
- Senate control/procedure: GOP holds 53–47; Thune leads the floor and has emphasized regular order and maintaining the 60‑vote Senate. That makes unanimous consent the preferred vehicle for narrow, bipartisan homeland items. [3]SDPB (South Dakota Public Broadcasting) — Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority…[4]Senate.gov (Office of Sen. Thune) — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majo…
- Committee bottleneck: HSGAC under Chair Paul sets the pace. Expect either a quick markup or hotline/UC after a privacy scrub, given the House’s voice vote and the bill’s assessment‑only scope. [8]Senate HSGAC — Paul & Peters Announce Senate Homeland Security and Governmental…[1]Congress.gov / GPO — GENERATIVE AI TERRORISM RISK ASSESSMENT ACT; Congressional…
- Text advantages: The engrossed House text already embeds explicit privacy/civil‑liberties compliance and requires an unclassified public report—features that answer typical objections and ease UC. [2]Congress.gov — Text - H.R.1736 (Engrossed in House) - includes latest actions a…
- Calendar/packaging: With Thanksgiving-to-Christmas wrap‑up approaching, this fits the “noncontroversial homeland/AI” clearance list that leaders often bundle; any hold would likely seek report language, not substantive rewrites. (Analytic judgment based on recent House voice passage and HSGAC control.) [1]Congress.gov / GPO — GENERATIVE AI TERRORISM RISK ASSESSMENT ACT; Congressional…[8]Senate HSGAC — Paul & Peters Announce Senate Homeland Security and Governmental…
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Assessment: likelihood of passage
Bottom line: high likelihood this work period, absent an unexpected privacy hold.
- Probability: High. Rationale: House voice passage; 21–0 committee report; narrow scope with built‑in privacy/civil‑liberty guardrails; GOP‑run HSGAC and floor. [5]GovInfo (GPO) — House Report 119-373 - Generative AI Terrorism Risk Assessment…[1]Congress.gov / GPO — GENERATIVE AI TERRORISM RISK ASSESSMENT ACT; Congressional…[2]Congress.gov — Text - H.R.1736 (Engrossed in House) - includes latest actions a…[3]SDPB (South Dakota Public Broadcasting) — Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority…
- Most likely path: UC after HSGAC clearance (with minor report language on privacy/information‑sharing). Thune can add to a bipartisan clearance package. [8]Senate HSGAC — Paul & Peters Announce Senate Homeland Security and Governmental…[4]Senate.gov (Office of Sen. Thune) — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majo…
- Key risks: Single‑senator privacy hold (Paul/Wyden) seeking tighter language around fusion centers/information‑sharing; delay rather than defeat. Bill’s text already mitigates by requiring privacy/civil‑liberties compliance and public unclassified reporting. [6]Senate HSGAC — Dr. Paul Warns of AI Surveillance in Government[7]U.S. Senate (Office of Sen. Wyden) — Wyden, Markey demand answers on AI used to…[2]Congress.gov — Text - H.R.1736 (Engrossed in House) - includes latest actions a…
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Sourcing (selected)
Core procedural facts and institutional roles are drawn from official congressional sources; committee posture and leadership signals from committee/leader sites; interest‑group signals from the relevant hearing docket.
- Bill text/status and Senate referral (Nov. 20): Congress.gov H.R. 1736 text and tracker. [2]Congress.gov — Text - H.R.1736 (Engrossed in House) - includes latest actions a…
- House passage record (Nov. 19): Congressional Record H4783–H4785. [1]Congress.gov / GPO — GENERATIVE AI TERRORISM RISK ASSESSMENT ACT; Congressional…
- House committee report and vote (21–0): H. Rept. 119‑373 (GovInfo/Congress.gov). [5]GovInfo (GPO) — House Report 119-373 - Generative AI Terrorism Risk Assessment…[10]Congress.gov — H. Rept. 119-373 - Congress.gov committee report page
- Senate control/leadership posture: Thune majority‑leader remarks; GOP majority size (53–47) coverage. [4]Senate.gov (Office of Sen. Thune) — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majo…[3]SDPB (South Dakota Public Broadcasting) — Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority…
- Senate committee gatekeeping: HSGAC chair/ranking announcement (Paul/Peters). [8]Senate HSGAC — Paul & Peters Announce Senate Homeland Security and Governmental…
- Privacy‑watchdog posture: Paul on AI/government surveillance; Wyden on AI/national‑security screening. [6]Senate HSGAC — Dr. Paul Warns of AI Surveillance in Government[7]U.S. Senate (Office of Sen. Wyden) — Wyden, Markey demand answers on AI used to…
- Interest‑group/witness context: House CT&I hearing docket (FDD, WINEP, Heritage, AU). [9]House Committee on Homeland Security — The Digital Battlefield: How Terrorists…
Sources cited
- [1] GENERATIVE AI TERRORISM RISK ASSESSMENT ACT; Congressional Record Vol. 171, No. 195 (House - Nov. 19, 2025) Congress.gov / GPO
- [2] Text - H.R.1736 (Engrossed in House) - includes latest actions and privacy language Congress.gov
- [3] Sen. Thune officially Senate Majority Leader as 119th Congress sworn in SDPB (South Dakota Public Broadcasting)
- [4] Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Leader Senate.gov (Office of Sen. Thune)
- [5] House Report 119-373 - Generative AI Terrorism Risk Assessment Act GovInfo (GPO)
- [6] Dr. Paul Warns of AI Surveillance in Government Senate HSGAC
- [7] Wyden, Markey demand answers on AI used to label people as national-security risks U.S. Senate (Office of Sen. Wyden)
- [8] Paul & Peters Announce Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Subcommittee Chairs/Ranking for the 119th Congress Senate HSGAC
- [9] The Digital Battlefield: How Terrorists Use the Internet and Online Networks for Recruitment and Radicalization (hearing) House Committee on Homeland Security
- [10] H. Rept. 119-373 - Congress.gov committee report page Congress.gov
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