Analyses / Whip Count Analysis / 119 · S 1926 Whip Count Analysis

119-S-1926 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

119 · S 1926 Reducing Waste in National Parks Act

park Public Lands and Natural Resources

GOP-run Senate and House; ENR and its National Parks panel are chaired by Republicans; S.1926 had a Dec. 9 National Parks Subcommittee hearing but remains at the mercy of Chair Daines and ENR Chair Lee. With the filibuster intact and the Trump Interior having rescinded the federal single-use plastics phase-out, floor prospects are poor. Expect near-unified Democratic support, negligible GOP crossover, and no reconciliation path. Passage odds: low. [1]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress (2025–2027): party control overview[2]U.S. Senate — Senate.gov – ENR Committee and subcommittees, 119th Congress (mem…[3]Congress.gov — Committee Schedule (Dec. 9, 2025) – Senate ENR National Parks Su…[4]SDPB — Thune officially Senate Majority Leader; pledges to preserve filibuster;…[5]U.S. Department of the Interior — Secretary’s Order 3430 – Rescission of SO 340…

Analyzed as
DC Insider
Published
10 Dec 2025
Updated
10 Dec 2025
Tags
whip-count · senate · energy-natural-resources
Unvetted
01 · Section

Breakdown: likely support/opposition

Where it stands procedurally: S.1926 was introduced June 2, 2025 and referred to Senate Energy & Natural Resources (ENR). It appeared on the Dec. 9, 2025 National Parks Subcommittee hearing agenda; no markup or report yet. [6]Congress.gov — All Info - S.1926 (119th): Reducing Waste in National Parks Act[3]Congress.gov — Committee Schedule (Dec. 9, 2025) – Senate ENR National Parks Su…

  • Senate party control and gatekeepers: Republicans hold the Senate (53–47). ENR is chaired by Sen. Mike Lee; the National Parks Subcommittee is chaired by Sen. Steve Daines. Both chairs control whether S.1926 receives a markup. [1]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress (2025–2027): party control overview[2]U.S. Senate — Senate.gov – ENR Committee and subcommittees, 119th Congress (mem…
  • Baseline party-line expectations: Democratic caucus (47) likely supportive (sponsor Merkley; 11 cosponsors are all Dem/Ind). GOP conference likely opposed given chair control and framing as a mandate on concessioners and park operations. [6]Congress.gov — All Info - S.1926 (119th): Reducing Waste in National Parks Act
  • Cloture math: Majority Leader Thune has reaffirmed keeping the 60‑vote filibuster. Realistically requires ~13 GOP votes to reach 60 if Dems are united—an implausible number for this policy. [4]SDPB — Thune officially Senate Majority Leader; pledges to preserve filibuster;…
  • House posture: Republicans control the House; the companion (H.R. 3604, Quigley) sits in Natural Resources, chaired by Rep. Bruce Westerman. GOP chairs set the agenda; no movement to date. [1]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress (2025–2027): party control overview[7]Congress.gov — H.R. 3604 (119th): Reducing Waste in National Parks Act (House c…[8]House Committee on Natural Resources — Chairman Bruce Westerman – House Natural…
  • Executive branch context: Interior Secretary Doug Burgum rescinded the 2022 department‑wide single‑use plastics phase‑out (SO 3407) in May 2025—signaling administration opposition to this policy direction. [5]U.S. Department of the Interior — Secretary’s Order 3430 – Rescission of SO 340…
Senate votes likely in favor (intro floor count)
47D/Ind caucus
GOP crossover likely
0to 2
Votes needed for cloture
60threshold
House control
1R majority
Bloc Likely stance Why it matters
Senate Democrats/Independents Broadly for Sponsor/cosponsors; aligns with prior DOI policy they supported. [6]Congress.gov — All Info - S.1926 (119th): Reducing Waste in National Parks Act[9]Web search · turn 7 #4
Senate Republicans Largely against Committee chairs (Lee/Daines) control docket; conference skeptical of mandates. [2]U.S. Senate — Senate.gov – ENR Committee and subcommittees, 119th Congress (mem…
House Republicans Against/slow‑roll Chair Westerman controls hearings/markups in Natural Resources. [8]House Committee on Natural Resources — Chairman Bruce Westerman – House Natural…
House Democrats For Sponsor of companion is Quigley; caucus messaging value. [7]Congress.gov — H.R. 3604 (119th): Reducing Waste in National Parks Act (House c…
02 · Section

Key legislators and pivotal swing votes

The choke points are within ENR and the National Parks Subcommittee; any path begins with a markup scheduled by GOP chairs. On the floor, only a handful of Republicans plausibly cross over, and even then the filibuster burden remains. [2]U.S. Senate — Senate.gov – ENR Committee and subcommittees, 119th Congress (mem…[4]SDPB — Thune officially Senate Majority Leader; pledges to preserve filibuster;…

  • Jeff Merkley (D-OR), sponsor: driving message against DOI reversal; can muster unified Dem support but lacks leverage over GOP‑run ENR. [10]Office of Sen. Jeff Merkley — Merkley press release reintroducing S.1926 (June…
  • Mike Lee (R-UT), ENR Chair: agenda‑setting authority; branding emphasizes reducing regulatory burdens—signals resistance to mandates on concessioners/operations. [11]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — ENR Chairman page – Sen.…
  • Steve Daines (R-MT), National Parks Subcommittee Chair: chaired the Dec. 9 hearing; portfolio focus on parks maintenance/Legacy Restoration Fund. If he doesn’t ask for a markup, the bill stalls. [12]Office of Sen. Steve Daines — Daines chairs Dec. 9, 2025 National Parks Subcomm…
  • Angus King (I-ME), Subcommittee Ranking Member: the lead Democrat in the relevant panel; can secure a hearing (done) but cannot compel markup. [2]U.S. Senate — Senate.gov – ENR Committee and subcommittees, 119th Congress (mem…
  • Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), ENR majority member: occasional cross‑party dealmaker on parks; potential narrow‑scope negotiator (e.g., funding refill stations) but unlikely to back a broad sales/distribution mandate. [2]U.S. Senate — Senate.gov – ENR Committee and subcommittees, 119th Congress (mem…
  • Susan Collins (R-ME), outside ENR: plausible floor‑vote pick‑up given coastal state profile; still insufficient to overcome cloture without a larger coalition. (Inference from state profile; filibuster intact.) [4]SDPB — Thune officially Senate Majority Leader; pledges to preserve filibuster;…
03 · Section

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

Leadership and rules are decisive: with Republicans running both chambers and the 60‑vote Senate threshold preserved, floor time and amendment strategy favor opponents. [1]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress (2025–2027): party control overview[4]SDPB — Thune officially Senate Majority Leader; pledges to preserve filibuster;…

  • Senate: Majority Leader John Thune controls floor time; he has publicly committed to preserving the 60‑vote filibuster, raising the bar for any partisan policy bill. [4]SDPB — Thune officially Senate Majority Leader; pledges to preserve filibuster;…
  • Senate committees: ENR (Chair Lee) and its National Parks panel (Chair Daines) decide whether S.1926 receives a markup and report; absent that, it cannot reach the floor. [2]U.S. Senate — Senate.gov – ENR Committee and subcommittees, 119th Congress (mem…
  • Reconciliation off‑ramp: The bill is policy‑heavy with minimal direct budget impact; such provisions are generally “extraneous” under the Byrd Rule and would be struck or require 60 votes to waive. [13]Congressional Research Service — CRS In Brief: Points of Order Limiting Content…[14]Congressional Research Service — CRS: The Budget Reconciliation Process – The S…
  • House: Speaker Mike Johnson sets floor priorities; the companion bill remains in Natural Resources under Chair Westerman with no action. Expect low appetite to advance a Senate‑origin plastics mandate. [15]CNBC — Mike Johnson reelected Speaker on Jan. 3, 2025[7]Congress.gov — H.R. 3604 (119th): Reducing Waste in National Parks Act (House c…[8]House Committee on Natural Resources — Chairman Bruce Westerman – House Natural…
  • Executive: DOI already rescinded the prior plastics phase‑out; absent significant changes, a veto threat is plausible even if the bill advanced. (Inference from SO 3430 policy direction.) [5]U.S. Department of the Interior — Secretary’s Order 3430 – Rescission of SO 340…
04 · Section

Interest groups and outside pressure

Public signaling is asymmetric: environmental groups are vocal in support; industry groups oppose bans and emphasize operational/logistical concerns. These positions inform GOP chairs’ incentives.

  • Environmental advocates: Oceana and NPCA criticized DOI’s rescission and back congressional action; Oceana polling shows broad voter support for reducing single‑use plastics. [16]Oceana — Oceana: Interior opens floodgates to single‑use plastics in national p…[17]Web search · turn 14 #6[18]Oceana — Oceana polling (Feb. 6, 2025): voters support reducing single‑use plas…
  • Bottled water/plastics industry: IBWA supported ending park bottle bans; broader plastics trade groups (ACC/PLASTICS) resist federal single‑use restrictions. [19]National Park Service — NPS ends policy encouraging bottled‑water sales bans (2…[20]Web search · turn 14 #5
  • Evidence record often cited by supporters: NPS analysis indicated prior bottle restrictions diverted significant plastic and emissions before 2017’s reversal. [21]Washington Post — NPS showed bottle ban worked before lifting it (context on di…
  • Bipartisan appetite exists for narrower, non‑mandate research measures (e.g., Senate‑passed REUSE Act), suggesting any viable path is incremental, not a sales/distribution ban. [22]Oceana — Senate passes bipartisan REUSE Act (Nov. 21, 2025)
05 · Section

Assessment: pass/fail odds and path to 60

Bottom line: absent major narrowing and repackaging, S.1926 will not clear the committee chokepoint or the 60‑vote Senate threshold this Congress.

  • Probability of Senate passage (stand‑alone): Low. GOP committee control, administration posture, and 60‑vote filibuster combine to block. [2]U.S. Senate — Senate.gov – ENR Committee and subcommittees, 119th Congress (mem…[5]U.S. Department of the Interior — Secretary’s Order 3430 – Rescission of SO 340…[4]SDPB — Thune officially Senate Majority Leader; pledges to preserve filibuster;…
  • House outlook (if somehow reported from Senate): Low. Natural Resources Chair Westerman unlikely to move the companion; floor prospects dim. [8]House Committee on Natural Resources — Chairman Bruce Westerman – House Natural…
  • Most plausible “salvage” path: carve‑down to non‑mandate provisions (e.g., funding for refill stations, visitor‑education pilots, data collection) and attempt inclusion in a bipartisan parks/lands package prioritized by the subcommittee—expect plastic‑ban language to be stripped in negotiation. [12]Office of Sen. Steve Daines — Daines chairs Dec. 9, 2025 National Parks Subcomm…
  • Timing: If pursued, align with any broader parks/maintenance package window coming out of ENR’s National Parks Subcommittee workstreams; otherwise, the clock runs into late‑2026 election positioning where leadership avoids tough culture‑adjacent votes. [12]Office of Sen. Steve Daines — Daines chairs Dec. 9, 2025 National Parks Subcomm…
Sources cited
  1. [1] 119th United States Congress (2025–2027): party control overview Wikipedia
  2. [2] Senate.gov – ENR Committee and subcommittees, 119th Congress (membership/leadership) U.S. Senate
  3. [3] Committee Schedule (Dec. 9, 2025) – Senate ENR National Parks Subcommittee agenda listing S.1926 Congress.gov
  4. [4] Thune officially Senate Majority Leader; pledges to preserve filibuster; GOP holds 53 seats SDPB
  5. [5] Secretary’s Order 3430 – Rescission of SO 3407 (DOI single‑use plastics phase‑out) U.S. Department of the Interior
  6. [6] All Info - S.1926 (119th): Reducing Waste in National Parks Act Congress.gov
  7. [7] H.R. 3604 (119th): Reducing Waste in National Parks Act (House companion) Congress.gov
  8. [8] Chairman Bruce Westerman – House Natural Resources Committee House Committee on Natural Resources
  9. [9] Web search · turn 7 #4
  10. [10] Merkley press release reintroducing S.1926 (June 3, 2025) Office of Sen. Jeff Merkley
  11. [11] ENR Chairman page – Sen. Mike Lee U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources
  12. [12] Daines chairs Dec. 9, 2025 National Parks Subcommittee hearing Office of Sen. Steve Daines
  13. [13] CRS In Brief: Points of Order Limiting Contents of Reconciliation (Byrd Rule) Congressional Research Service
  14. [14] CRS: The Budget Reconciliation Process – The Senate’s Byrd Rule Congressional Research Service
  15. [15] Mike Johnson reelected Speaker on Jan. 3, 2025 CNBC
  16. [16] Oceana: Interior opens floodgates to single‑use plastics in national parks (May 21, 2025) Oceana
  17. [17] Web search · turn 14 #6
  18. [18] Oceana polling (Feb. 6, 2025): voters support reducing single‑use plastics Oceana
  19. [19] NPS ends policy encouraging bottled‑water sales bans (2017 press release) National Park Service
  20. [20] Web search · turn 14 #5
  21. [21] NPS showed bottle ban worked before lifting it (context on diverted plastic/emissions) Washington Post
  22. [22] Senate passes bipartisan REUSE Act (Nov. 21, 2025) Oceana

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