Analyses / Whip Count Analysis / 119 · SJRES 61 Whip Count Analysis

119-SJRES-61 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

119 · SJRES 61 A joint resolution providing for congressional disapproval under chapter 8 of title 5, United States Code, of the rule submitted by the Bureau of Land Management relating to "Miles City Field Office Record of Decision and Approved Resource Management Plan Amendment".

park Public Lands and Natural Resources
This joint resolution nullifies the rule submitted by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) relating to the Record of Decision and Approved Resource Management Plan (RMP) Amendment for the Miles City...

With Republicans controlling both chambers and the White House, and with GAO confirming the Miles City RMPA is a CRA‑eligible “rule,” S.J.Res.61 is poised to pass on near‑party‑line votes; Senate fast‑track rules and House leadership control minimize procedural risk. [1]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress (party control and margins)[2]Washington Post — Washington Post interactive: Republicans control the Senate 5…[3]U.S. GAO — GAO Decision B‑337163 (Miles City RMPA is a rule under CRA)[4]Congressional Research Service (via Congress.gov) — CRS In Focus: The Congressi…

Analyzed as
DC Insider
Published
08 Oct 2025
Updated
08 Oct 2025
Tags
whipcount · CRA · public-lands
Vetted
01 · Section

Breakdown: expected support and opposition

This joint resolution disapproves BLM’s Miles City Field Office Record of Decision and RMP Amendment finalized Nov. 20, 2024; GAO deemed it a “rule” under the CRA, unlocking expedited Senate procedures. [5]U.S. Bureau of Land Management — BLM press release: Record of Decision and Amen…[6]Federal Register (via FWS.gov) — Federal Register notice: Miles City ROD/RMPA (…[3]U.S. GAO — GAO Decision B‑337163 (Miles City RMPA is a rule under CRA)

  • Senate: GOP majority 53–47. CRA guarantees a simple‑majority path with up to 10 hours of debate, no amendments, and the option to discharge ENR after 20 calendar days with 30 signatures. Baseline expectation is near‑unanimous Republican support; Democrats largely opposed. Prior 2025 energy‑related CRAs have cleared the Senate by simple majority (e.g., 52–47 methane‑fee vote). Expected tally: 51–53 yea, 45–47 nay. [2]Washington Post — Washington Post interactive: Republicans control the Senate 5…[7]Web search · turn 3 #1[4]Congressional Research Service (via Congress.gov) — CRS In Focus: The Congressi…[8]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW Committee (Majority) release: Senate votes 52–4…
  • House: GOP majority ~220–215. No House fast‑track, but majority can set a closed rule; pattern shows several Democrats crossing on energy rules (e.g., DOE appliance CRA 222–203; methane fee CRA 220–206 with six Ds in favor, one R opposed). Expected tally: 217–224 yea, 198–205 nay. [1]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress (party control and margins)[4]Congressional Research Service (via Congress.gov) — CRS In Focus: The Congressi…[9]Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives — House Clerk vote: DOE appl…[10]Washington Times — Washington Times: House methane fee CRA vote (six Ds for; on…
  • Issue polarization: Mining and Western resource groups back disapproval; national environmental groups oppose. [11]NMA — National Mining Association statement opposing PRB no‑new‑leasing[12]Sierra Club — Sierra Club press release: legal intervention supporting PRB coal…
  • Substance at issue: the 2024 Miles City RMPA made zero acres available for future coal leasing (roughly 1.745 million acres unavailable), driving Montana/Wyoming coal politics. [13]Congress.gov — Congress.gov: H.J.Res.104 summary (Miles City RMPA made zero acr…
02 · Section

Key legislators and likely swing votes

Focus on members with either cross‑pressure from energy constituencies or a record of crossing the aisle on CRA energy votes.

  • Senate Republicans: Conference leadership and Western Rs are aligned against the RMPA; ENR is chaired by Mike Lee, and Daines is the sponsor. No obvious GOP defectors; watch Susan Collins (ME) and Lisa Murkowski (AK) only for process/precedent concerns, not substance. [14]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — Energy & Natural Resources Committee notice: Lee ch…[15]Congress.gov — Congress.gov: Text of S.J.Res.61 (Miles City RMPA CRA)
  • Senate Democrats/Independents: Western Dems have split on selected energy CRAs (e.g., multiple Dems joined GOP on early‑2025 energy CRA votes). Members to watch for possible crossover: Catherine Cortez Masto (NV), Jacky Rosen (NV), John Hickenlooper (CO). [8]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW Committee (Majority) release: Senate votes 52–4…[16]Web search · turn 8 #1
  • House Republicans: Brian Fitzpatrick (PA‑1) has broken with GOP on energy CRA (only R “no” on methane‑fee repeal); he’s the likeliest GOP defection. [10]Washington Times — Washington Times: House methane fee CRA vote (six Ds for; on…
  • House Democrats: Jared Golden (ME‑2) publicly backed several CRA rollbacks of EPA EV waivers; Henry Cuellar (TX‑28) and Vicente Gonzalez (TX‑34) have a record of siding with GOP on energy legislation. These three are the most likely Democratic “yes” votes. [17]Office of Rep. Jared Golden (ME-2) — Rep. Jared Golden press release: voted for…[18]Texas Tribune — Texas Tribune: Democrats Cuellar and Gonzalez to vote with GOP…
03 · Section

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

Leadership in both chambers is structurally and politically aligned to move the resolution.

  • Senate floor control: Majority Leader John Thune leads a 53–47 GOP Senate. Under the CRA, once ENR reports (or is discharged after 20 days), a nondebatable motion to proceed and 10 hours of capped debate apply; leadership has repeatedly used CRA time this year. [2]Washington Post — Washington Post interactive: Republicans control the Senate 5…[4]Congressional Research Service (via Congress.gov) — CRS In Focus: The Congressi…[19]U.S. Senate Periodical Press Gallery — Senate Periodical Press Gallery floor lo…
  • Committee gatekeepers: ENR is chaired by Mike Lee (R‑UT), with Heinrich (D‑NM) as Ranking Member. Expect a quick markup or simple discharge; the committee cannot amend a CRA. [14]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — Energy & Natural Resources Committee notice: Lee ch…[4]Congressional Research Service (via Congress.gov) — CRS In Focus: The Congressi…
  • House control: Speaker Mike Johnson’s majority and the Natural Resources Committee chaired by Bruce Westerman provide a clean path to the floor via a closed rule; GOP has already staged broader energy rollbacks through committee and floor time. [20]Associated Press — AP: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected Speaker for 119th Congre…[21]Wikipedia — House Natural Resources Committee, 119th membership (chair Bruce We…[22]Politico — Politico: House Natural Resources plans energy‑package markup (conte…
  • Executive: The White House has shifted BLM posture toward “Unleashing American Energy,” considering revisions to the Miles City/Buffalo coal decisions; signature on disapproval is expected. [23]U.S. Bureau of Land Management — BLM press release (July 7, 2025): considering…
04 · Section

Assessment: likelihood and timing

Bottom line: high probability of enactment, with timing shaped by floor bandwidth rather than vote math.

  • Probability: High. GOP has the votes in both chambers; President Trump would sign. Prior energy CRAs have cleared both chambers this year. [8]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW Committee (Majority) release: Senate votes 52–4…[9]Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives — House Clerk vote: DOE appl…
  • Timing/clock: GAO’s opinion was printed in the Congressional Record on June 26, 2025; CRA fast‑track in the Senate runs for 60 session days from that trigger. Given the 2025 Senate schedule and recesses, expedited consideration remains feasible into the fall. [24]Congressional Record (Congress.gov) — Congressional Record (June 26, 2025): GAO…[7]Web search · turn 3 #1[25]U.S. Senate — Senate 2025 tentative legislative schedule (state work periods)
  • Risk factors: Floor congestion amid the October shutdown could delay sequencing, but CRA floor time is limited and leadership has shown willingness to prioritize these votes. [26]Washington Post — Washington Post: Senate returns with no shutdown deal (Thune…
  • Political optics: GOP frames as jobs/energy security (mining, Montana delegation); environmental and tribal groups oppose. Expect party‑line messaging with limited cross‑party movement. [27]Web search · turn 4 #3[11]NMA — National Mining Association statement opposing PRB no‑new‑leasing[12]Sierra Club — Sierra Club press release: legal intervention supporting PRB coal…
Senate expected yea
52votes (range 51–53)
House expected yea
220votes (range 217–224)
Senate debate cap (CRA)
10hours
Senate majority
53GOP seats
House majority
220GOP seats (approx.)
05 · Section

Sourcing (key materials)

Core references used for composition, procedure, leadership, and the underlying rule.

  • Text/status: S.J.Res.61 (Daines/Sheehy) and referral to ENR. [15]Congress.gov — Congress.gov: Text of S.J.Res.61 (Miles City RMPA CRA)
  • Chamber control/leadership: GOP majorities; Thune as Majority Leader; Speaker Mike Johnson. [1]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress (party control and margins)[2]Washington Post — Washington Post interactive: Republicans control the Senate 5…[20]Associated Press — AP: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected Speaker for 119th Congre…
  • CRA mechanics (fast‑track, discharge, time limits). [4]Congressional Research Service (via Congress.gov) — CRS In Focus: The Congressi…[7]Web search · turn 3 #1
  • Triggering opinion: GAO determination that the Miles City RMPA is a CRA “rule,” printed in the Congressional Record on June 26, 2025. [3]U.S. GAO — GAO Decision B‑337163 (Miles City RMPA is a rule under CRA)[24]Congressional Record (Congress.gov) — Congressional Record (June 26, 2025): GAO…
  • Senate/House voting patterns on 2025 energy CRAs. [8]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW Committee (Majority) release: Senate votes 52–4…[9]Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives — House Clerk vote: DOE appl…[10]Washington Times — Washington Times: House methane fee CRA vote (six Ds for; on…
  • Stakeholders’ positions and underlying policy substance. [11]NMA — National Mining Association statement opposing PRB no‑new‑leasing[12]Sierra Club — Sierra Club press release: legal intervention supporting PRB coal…[13]Congress.gov — Congress.gov: H.J.Res.104 summary (Miles City RMPA made zero acr…
  • Committee gatekeepers: Senate ENR and House Natural Resources leadership. [14]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — Energy & Natural Resources Committee notice: Lee ch…[21]Wikipedia — House Natural Resources Committee, 119th membership (chair Bruce We…
  • Administration posture on PRB coal leasing post‑January 20, 2025. [23]U.S. Bureau of Land Management — BLM press release (July 7, 2025): considering…
Sources cited
  1. [1] 119th United States Congress (party control and margins) Wikipedia
  2. [2] Washington Post interactive: Republicans control the Senate 53–47 (119th) Washington Post
  3. [3] GAO Decision B‑337163 (Miles City RMPA is a rule under CRA) U.S. GAO
  4. [4] CRS In Focus: The Congressional Review Act (IF10023) Congressional Research Service (via Congress.gov)
  5. [5] BLM press release: Record of Decision and Amendment for Miles City FO (Nov. 2024) U.S. Bureau of Land Management
  6. [6] Federal Register notice: Miles City ROD/RMPA (Nov. 27, 2024) Federal Register (via FWS.gov)
  7. [7] Web search · turn 3 #1
  8. [8] EPW Committee (Majority) release: Senate votes 52–47 to overturn methane fee (CRA) U.S. Senate EPW Committee
  9. [9] House Clerk vote: DOE appliance standards CRA (222–203) Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives
  10. [10] Washington Times: House methane fee CRA vote (six Ds for; one R against) Washington Times
  11. [11] National Mining Association statement opposing PRB no‑new‑leasing NMA
  12. [12] Sierra Club press release: legal intervention supporting PRB coal decision Sierra Club
  13. [13] Congress.gov: H.J.Res.104 summary (Miles City RMPA made zero acres available; 1.745M acres unavailable) Congress.gov
  14. [14] Energy & Natural Resources Committee notice: Lee chair; subcommittee assignments (119th) U.S. Senate ENR Committee
  15. [15] Congress.gov: Text of S.J.Res.61 (Miles City RMPA CRA) Congress.gov
  16. [16] Web search · turn 8 #1
  17. [17] Rep. Jared Golden press release: voted for CRA rollbacks of EPA EV waivers Office of Rep. Jared Golden (ME-2)
  18. [18] Texas Tribune: Democrats Cuellar and Gonzalez to vote with GOP on energy bill (record of energy crossovers) Texas Tribune
  19. [19] Senate Periodical Press Gallery floor logs (multiple CRA votes in May 2025) U.S. Senate Periodical Press Gallery
  20. [20] AP: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected Speaker for 119th Congress Associated Press
  21. [21] House Natural Resources Committee, 119th membership (chair Bruce Westerman) Wikipedia
  22. [22] Politico: House Natural Resources plans energy‑package markup (context on majority agenda) Politico
  23. [23] BLM press release (July 7, 2025): considering new areas for coal leasing under EO 14154/SO 3418 U.S. Bureau of Land Management
  24. [24] Congressional Record (June 26, 2025): GAO opinion printed (S3552–S3554) Congressional Record (Congress.gov)
  25. [25] Senate 2025 tentative legislative schedule (state work periods) U.S. Senate
  26. [26] Washington Post: Senate returns with no shutdown deal (Thune as Majority Leader; floor congestion context) Washington Post
  27. [27] Web search · turn 4 #3

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