Analyses / Whip Count Analysis / 119 · HRES 838 Whip Count Analysis

119-HRES-838 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

119 · HRES 838 Commemorating the annual celebration of Día de los Muertos in the United States and around the world.

palette Arts, Culture, Religion

House Republicans control the floor and Judiciary gavel; a Dia de los Muertos simple resolution that condemns ICE practices won’t clear the majority’s gatekeepers or reach the two‑thirds threshold for suspension. Expect it to stall in committee absent text changes that strip the ICE language; discharge is impractical on this timeline. Likelihood of passage: low. [1]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress – Party control and leadership[2]Wikipedia — United States House Committee on the Judiciary – 119th membership (…[3]House Judiciary Committee Republicans — House Judiciary Committee Republicans –…[4]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: Suspension of the Rules:…

Analyzed as
DC Insider
Published
29 Oct 2025
Updated
29 Oct 2025
Tags
whip-count · House simple resolution · Judiciary Committee
Unvetted
01 · Section

Breakdown: expected support/opposition

This is a simple House resolution; it does not go to the Senate and has no force of law. It moves only if the majority allows it to be scheduled (typically under suspension, requiring two‑thirds). [5]House.gov — Bills & Resolutions – Simple resolutions explained[4]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: Suspension of the Rules:…

  • Democrats: Broad support likely. The sponsors/cosponsors are from the Democratic caucus’ immigration/Latino blocs, and House Democrats have been publicly pressing ICE oversight (e.g., their lawsuit over blocked facility access). [6]News result · turn 8 #12
  • Republicans: Conference opposition likely as written. The resolution’s whereas clauses cite 2025 detainee deaths and a high‑profile ICE shooting; Judiciary Republicans are currently advancing an aggressive enforcement agenda (e.g., “1 million annual removals,” +10,000 ICE personnel), making floor time for a text critical of ICE improbable. [7]U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement — ICE: Detainee Death Reporting (FY202…[8]Reuters — Chicago ICE crackdown’s first casualty, a father of two, had built a…[3]House Judiciary Committee Republicans — House Judiciary Committee Republicans –…
  • Likely whip pattern if brought up unchanged: Near‑unanimous Democratic YEAs; scattered R YEAs possible from select immigration‑reform Republicans, but far short of the two‑thirds needed under suspension. With Republicans holding a narrow 220–215 majority, leadership can simply deny floor time. [1]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress – Party control and leadership[4]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: Suspension of the Rules:…
House control (119th)
220R seats (vs. 215 D)
Senate control (context)
53R seats
Suspension threshold
66.7% of members present
Committee of referral (intro)
1House Judiciary (R‑led)
02 · Section

Key legislators and pivotal actors

Gatekeepers and plausible swing members whose public records suggest the small chance of cross‑party votes if the text is softened.

  • Chair Jim Jordan (House Judiciary): Controls markup/forwarding. His panel is prioritizing expanded removals and ICE staffing; he has publicly defended ICE agents amid recent controversies. Expect him to bottle the resolution in committee. [2]Wikipedia — United States House Committee on the Judiciary – 119th membership (…[3]House Judiciary Committee Republicans — House Judiciary Committee Republicans –…[9]Web search · turn 9 #6
  • Speaker Mike Johnson / Majority Leader Steve Scalise: Control floor access and suspension lists. With a razor‑thin GOP majority, leadership has little incentive to schedule a measure that splits their conference. [10]AP News — 119th Congress Latest: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House Speaker[11]House member site — Scalise re‑elected Majority Leader for the 119th Congress
  • Possible R swing votes if ICE‑critical clauses are removed or softened:
  • - María Elvira Salazar (FL‑27): GOP co‑author of the bipartisan DIGNITY Act; public record shows willingness to back immigration compromises. [12]House member site — Rep. María Elvira Salazar – The DIGNITY Act (2025 update an…
  • - David Valadao (CA‑22): Listed GOP co‑sponsor of the DIGNITY package; represents a heavily Latino district. [12]House member site — Rep. María Elvira Salazar – The DIGNITY Act (2025 update an…
  • - Brian Fitzpatrick (PA‑01) and Don Bacon (NE‑02): Both appear on DIGNITY materials and Problem Solvers endorsements tied to immigration compromises. [12]House member site — Rep. María Elvira Salazar – The DIGNITY Act (2025 update an…[13]Problem Solvers Caucus — Problem Solvers Caucus endorses DIGNITY Act (bipartisa…
  • - Young Kim (CA‑40): Included among GOP backers on DIGNITY announcements; profile consistent with selective cross‑party votes. [14]House member site — Rep. Salazar press release – DIGNITY Act of 2025 backers (i…
  • - Tony Gonzales (TX‑23): Border‑district Republican who has previously broken with his party on immigration; censured by state GOP in 2023 for such breaks. Not a likely YEA on current ICE language but movable on a purely cultural text. [15]AP News — Texas congressman who broke with GOP is censured (Tony Gonzales)
  • Democratic vote managers: Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries will likely support and help hold Democrats unified; Democrats have been active on ICE oversight this year (lawsuit over on‑site access). [16]Web search · turn 6 #1[17]Reuters — House Democrats sue Trump administration for blocking access to ICE f…
03 · Section

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

Where the leverage sits and how the text interacts with House procedure.

  • Majority control: Republicans hold the House (approx. 220–215). That gives the Speaker/Majority Leader near‑total control over the suspension slate and Rules Committee strategy. [1]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress – Party control and leadership
  • Committee gatekeeping: Referred to Judiciary at introduction; with Jordan as chair and the majority’s enforcement posture, the default is no markup/no report. [2]Wikipedia — United States House Committee on the Judiciary – 119th membership (…[3]House Judiciary Committee Republicans — House Judiciary Committee Republicans –…
  • Path to the floor if leadership resists: Discharge petition after 30 legislative days requires 218 signatures—rarely successful and unrealistic on this calendar. [18]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: Discharge Procedure in t…
  • If leadership did allow consideration: Likely under suspension of the rules (two‑thirds required). Given the ICE accountability language and current partisan environment, hitting that threshold is unlikely without GOP text buy‑in. [4]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: Suspension of the Rules:…
  • Senate and White House: Not applicable for a House simple resolution; adoption is wholly internal to the House and not presented to the President. [5]House.gov — Bills & Resolutions – Simple resolutions explained
04 · Section

Assessment: likelihood of passage

Bottom‑line whip and timing call based on current text and power centers.

  • Substance risk: The text cites FY2025 ICE deaths and a Chicago‑area ICE shooting—flashpoints that the GOP majority is unlikely to validate in a floor vote. [7]U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement — ICE: Detainee Death Reporting (FY202…[8]Reuters — Chicago ICE crackdown’s first casualty, a father of two, had built a…
  • Calendar risk: Introduction on October 28 makes a pre–Nov. 1–2 adoption essentially impossible without pre‑clearance from GOP leaders (not present). [11]House member site — Scalise re‑elected Majority Leader for the 119th Congress
  • Procedural hurdle: If considered, it would be under suspension (two‑thirds needed). Democrats alone cannot meet that threshold; GOP leaders control whether it’s scheduled at all. [4]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: Suspension of the Rules:…
  • Overall judgment: Likelihood of passage (as introduced) — low. Confidence — high. If ICE‑related clauses are stripped and the measure is recast as a purely cultural commemoration, the whip math improves materially, but still depends on majority floor consent. [4]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: Suspension of the Rules:…
Scenario Procedural path Rationale / odds
Current text (with ICE clauses) Stalls in Judiciary; no floor time Majority’s enforcement posture + chair’s gatekeeping; no two‑thirds under suspension. [2]Wikipedia — United States House Committee on the Judiciary – 119th membership (…[3]House Judiciary Committee Republicans — House Judiciary Committee Republicans –…
ICE clauses removed; cultural recognition only Possible suspension vote Historically used for noncontroversial commemoratives; still majority‑controlled. [4]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: Suspension of the Rules:…
Discharge petition Impractical 218 signatures required; rarely succeeds. [18]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: Discharge Procedure in t…
05 · Section

Notes on sourcing for key claims

Select references underpinning caucus positions, leadership control, and 2025 ICE context.

  • House control and leadership: GOP majority and leadership roster. [1]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress – Party control and leadership[10]AP News — 119th Congress Latest: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House Speaker[11]House member site — Scalise re‑elected Majority Leader for the 119th Congress
  • Judiciary Committee chair and priorities on immigration enforcement. [2]Wikipedia — United States House Committee on the Judiciary – 119th membership (…[3]House Judiciary Committee Republicans — House Judiciary Committee Republicans –…
  • Simple resolutions, Senate inapplicability, and suspension practice. [5]House.gov — Bills & Resolutions – Simple resolutions explained[4]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: Suspension of the Rules:…
  • Discharge petition mechanics and difficulty. [18]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: Discharge Procedure in t…
  • ICE 2025 context cited in the resolution text: detainee death reporting (official and press) and the Franklin Park shooting coverage. [7]U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement — ICE: Detainee Death Reporting (FY202…[20]El País (English) — Deaths of migrants in ICE custody reach highest level in 20…[8]Reuters — Chicago ICE crackdown’s first casualty, a father of two, had built a…
  • Potential GOP swing profiles via bipartisan immigration work (DIGNITY Act) and prior independence on immigration. [12]House member site — Rep. María Elvira Salazar – The DIGNITY Act (2025 update an…[14]House member site — Rep. Salazar press release – DIGNITY Act of 2025 backers (i…[13]Problem Solvers Caucus — Problem Solvers Caucus endorses DIGNITY Act (bipartisa…[15]AP News — Texas congressman who broke with GOP is censured (Tony Gonzales)
  • Democratic caucus posture on ICE oversight access (lawsuit). [17]Reuters — House Democrats sue Trump administration for blocking access to ICE f…
Sources cited
  1. [1] 119th United States Congress – Party control and leadership Wikipedia
  2. [2] United States House Committee on the Judiciary – 119th membership (Chair Jim Jordan) Wikipedia
  3. [3] House Judiciary Committee Republicans – Big Beautiful Border Security! (enforcement priorities) House Judiciary Committee Republicans
  4. [4] CRS: Suspension of the Rules: House Practice in the 118th Congress (two‑thirds threshold; usage) Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov
  5. [5] Bills & Resolutions – Simple resolutions explained House.gov
  6. [6] News result · turn 8 #12
  7. [7] ICE: Detainee Death Reporting (FY2025 list) U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement
  8. [8] Chicago ICE crackdown’s first casualty, a father of two, had built a quiet life in the U.S. Reuters
  9. [9] Web search · turn 9 #6
  10. [10] 119th Congress Latest: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House Speaker AP News
  11. [11] Scalise re‑elected Majority Leader for the 119th Congress House member site
  12. [12] Rep. María Elvira Salazar – The DIGNITY Act (2025 update and GOP/Dem co-sponsors) House member site
  13. [13] Problem Solvers Caucus endorses DIGNITY Act (bipartisan immigration framework) Problem Solvers Caucus
  14. [14] Rep. Salazar press release – DIGNITY Act of 2025 backers (includes Young Kim, Don Bacon, etc.) House member site
  15. [15] Texas congressman who broke with GOP is censured (Tony Gonzales) AP News
  16. [16] Web search · turn 6 #1
  17. [17] House Democrats sue Trump administration for blocking access to ICE facilities Reuters
  18. [18] CRS: Discharge Procedure in the House (Rule XV, clause 2) Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov
  19. [19] Web search · turn 2 #0
  20. [20] Deaths of migrants in ICE custody reach highest level in 20 years (FY2025 at least 22) El País (English)

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