119-HR-1077 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

Breakdown: expected support/opposition by party and caucus

Scope: Adds geothermal projects to Section 390 categorical exclusions where areas are previously studied/developed — framed as parity with oil and gas. Reported from House Natural Resources (HNR) by unanimous consent on Mar 5, 2026. [2]Congress.gov — All Info - H.R.1077 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): STEAM Act | Co…

• House Republicans: Broadly supportive of permitting streamlining and HNR’s geothermal package; committee advanced the bundle and messaged it as “unleashing resources.” Expect most R’s to vote yes absent cross-pressures. [3]House Committee on Natural Resources (Majority) — Committee Advances Legislatio…
• House Democrats: Evidence of organized bipartisan support — the bill’s sponsor/co-sponsors include Democrats (Lee, Perez, Gray, Suozzi). HNR Democrats publicly characterized the STEAM Act as “extending existing categorical exclusions to geothermal,” signaling comfort with its narrow scope. Expect many moderates/western Dems to support; progressive EJ wing may balk at CE expansion. [2]Congress.gov — All Info - H.R.1077 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): STEAM Act | Co…
• Outside pressure: Geothermal industry strongly supportive (e.g., Geothermal Rising letter filed to markup). Environmental groups historically challenge categorical-exclusion expansion on NEPA grounds, which could shape some Dem opposition. [4]docs.house.gov — Geothermal Rising letter supporting geothermal permitting bill…
• Institutional context: BLM has recently moved administratively on geothermal-related NEPA procedures/CE substantiation; codification via H.R. 1077 appeals to industry seeking statutory certainty, while some Democrats may argue the rulemaking already addresses the need. [5]Federal Register — Federal Register notice – BLM NEPA implementing procedures (…
• Senate Republicans: Committee of jurisdiction (Energy & Natural Resources) is chaired by Sen. Mike Lee; majority leadership under Sen. John Thune controls floor time. Expect receptive posture, though any single-senator hold can force floor time. [6]Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee — U.S. Senate Committee on Energy a…
• Senate Democrats/Independents: A Democratic sponsor exists for the identical Senate bill (S.456, Cortez Masto), indicating at least some blue-state/western support; progressive objections to CE policy remain the main risk to UC. [7]Congress.gov — S.456 (STEAM Act) overview page

Key legislators and swing votes

• House leads: Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV) sponsors H.R. 1077; Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-UT) is an original co-sponsor — a cross-party western pairing aligned with district resource profiles. [2]Congress.gov — All Info - H.R.1077 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): STEAM Act | Co…
• Committee gatekeepers: HNR Chair Bruce Westerman (R-AR) advanced a broader geothermal package; Ranking Member Jared Huffman (D-CA) publicly framed STEAM as CE parity, a tell for Dem negotiations. Their markup produced unanimous consent for H.R. 1077, lowering intra-committee risk. [3]House Committee on Natural Resources (Majority) — Committee Advances Legislatio…
• Moderate/cross-pressure Dems: Existing co-sponsors Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA), Adam Gray (CA), and Tom Suozzi (NY) illustrate where additional Dem votes are likely to come from (clean energy + permitting pragmatists). [2]Congress.gov — All Info - H.R.1077 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): STEAM Act | Co…
• Procedural power: Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and House Majority leadership control floor timing; a narrow, bipartisan resource bill could move by suspension if leadership chooses. [8]Speaker.gov — Home - Speaker of the House Mike Johnson
• Senate pathway: S.456 is sponsored by Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) and sits in ENR; Chair Mike Lee (R-UT) and Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) hold the keys on hearings/markup and floor time, respectively. [7]Congress.gov — S.456 (STEAM Act) overview page

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

• House control: Republicans hold unified control of government (White House, Senate, House) this Congress, easing leadership-driven scheduling. That said, crowded floor time in an election-year spring can still delay low-drama authorizations. [9]U.S. House History, Art & Archives — Party Government Since 1857 | US House of…
• Committee posture: H.R. 1077 was ordered favorably reported by unanimous consent on Mar 5, 2026 — an unusually strong bipartisan signal in HNR that positions the bill for noncontroversial consideration once leadership allocates time. [1]docs.house.gov — Committee on Natural Resources — Action Report (Mar 5, 2026)
• Floor route (House): Two viable paths — (a) Suspension of the rules (2/3 threshold) if leadership assesses broad bipartisan support; or (b) a structured rule via Rules Committee if amendments are sought. Recent HNR messaging around “unleashing resources” suggests the majority would welcome a clean vote. [3]House Committee on Natural Resources (Majority) — Committee Advances Legislatio…
• Senate route: With ENR chaired by Mike Lee, the committee can move S.456 or accept the House vehicle. Best case is hotline/unanimous consent; otherwise, the bill needs floor time and could face holds over NEPA policy. Majority Leader Thune governs the UC and floor-time calculus. [6]Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee — U.S. Senate Committee on Energy a…
• Overhang from executive action: BLM/DOI’s recent geothermal CE work narrows the policy gap, which may mollify some Democrats while prompting others to argue that legislation is redundant. Net effect: reduces ideological friction but doesn’t eliminate it. [5]Federal Register — Federal Register notice – BLM NEPA implementing procedures (…

Assessment: likely outcome and confidence

Bottom line from a vote-count perspective, given control of the agenda, bipartisan committee record, and industry support.

• House: High likelihood to pass if called up; UC reporting plus bipartisan co-sponsors indicate durable cross-aisle votes sufficient for either suspension or a rule. Confidence: high. [1]docs.house.gov — Committee on Natural Resources — Action Report (Mar 5, 2026)
• Senate: Moderate likelihood. ENR chair alignment and a Democratic Senate sponsor help, but any NEPA-related UC objection would force floor time amid a packed calendar. Confidence: moderate. [6]Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee — U.S. Senate Committee on Energy a…
• Overall: Moderate–high probability of enactment if leadership prioritizes the geothermal package this work period or bundles it into a permitting mini-omnibus. Key risk: a single-senator hold over categorical-exclusion policy. [4]docs.house.gov — Geothermal Rising letter supporting geothermal permitting bill…