Analyses / Whip Count Analysis / 119 · S 1870 Whip Count Analysis

119-S-1870 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

119 · S 1870 Rim of the Valley Corridor Preservation Act

park Public Lands and Natural Resources

Republicans control both chambers; Senate ENR is chaired by Mike Lee with Steve Daines chairing National Parks. Schiff/Padilla’s S.1870 had a Dec. 9, 2025 subcommittee hearing, and Rep. Laura Friedman filed the House companion. Given GOP leadership priorities and House Natural Resources’ posture, the bill is unlikely to move as a stand‑alone; best shot is inclusion in a bipartisan year‑end lands package. Overall passage odds: low as a stand‑alone; moderate if packaged. [1]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Party Division[2]Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee — Heinrich, Lee Announce Subcommitt…[3]Congress.gov — S.1870 — Rim of the Valley Corridor Preservation Act (Status & C…[4]Congress.gov — H.R. 3874 — Rim of the Valley Corridor Preservation Act (House c…

Analyzed as
DC Insider
Published
11 Dec 2025
Updated
11 Dec 2025
Tags
whip-count · public-lands · Senate-ENR
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01 · Section

Breakdown: expected support/opposition

Institutional context: Republicans hold both chambers; John Thune is Senate Majority Leader and John Barrasso is Majority Whip, preserving the 60‑vote filibuster hurdle for stand‑alone authorizations. [1]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Party Division[5]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Lea…[6]Senate Republican Conference — Barrasso Elected as Majority Whip for the 119th…

  • Senate baseline: Democrats/Independents (47) likely supportive on policy/precedent; Republicans (53) mixed to negative on expanding federal holdings this Congress. Expect roughly 47 D/I “yes,” 2–5 potential R “yes” (Murkowski/Collins–type votes), leaving cloture short absent a package or UC agreement. [1]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Party Division
  • Key Senate gate: Energy & Natural Resources (ENR) with Chair Mike Lee; National Parks Subcommittee chaired by Steve Daines. Their discretion over hearings/markups is the first choke point. [2]Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee — Heinrich, Lee Announce Subcommitt…
  • House baseline: GOP narrow majority (recently at ~220–213) with Speaker Mike Johnson. House Natural Resources under Chair Bruce Westerman and Federal Lands Subcommittee under Tom Tiffany are oriented toward resource development/land sales this term, not park expansion. Expect most Democrats “yes,” most Republicans “no,” with a handful of cross‑pressured Western Rs possible but insufficient to force a markup. [7]Associated Press — Republican Matt Van Epps sworn in, bolstering House GOP majo…[8]House Natural Resources Committee — Chairman Bruce Westerman — House Committee…[9]House Natural Resources Committee — Subcommittees — House Committee on Natural…
  • Bill status: S.1870 was read twice and referred to ENR; the National Parks Subcommittee held a hearing on December 9, 2025. The House companion (H.R. 3874) by Rep. Laura Friedman was referred to House Natural Resources and has only Democratic cosponsors to date. [3]Congress.gov — S.1870 — Rim of the Valley Corridor Preservation Act (Status & C…[4]Congress.gov — H.R. 3874 — Rim of the Valley Corridor Preservation Act (House c…[10]Congress.gov — H.R. 3874 — Cosponsors
  • Policy pedigree: Built on the NPS 2016 Special Resource Study recommending a boundary expansion; long backed by NPCA and local coalition partners. [11]National Park Service — NPS: Rim of the Valley Corridor Special Resource Study…[12]National Parks Conservation Association — NPCA: Support the Proposed Rim of the…
  • Counter‑winds: Current GOP agenda has prioritized public‑land disposals/resource development in budget vehicles; Senate/House proposals to mandate sales of federal land signal limited appetite for new federal park acreage. [13]Washington Post — Senate GOP plan would sell millions of acres of Western publi…[14]KUNC — House Republicans approve public lands sales in energy budget
02 · Section

Key legislators and pivotal swing votes

Focus on members with procedural leverage or credible cross‑pressure from constituency, caucus, or past record.

  • Sen. Mike Lee (R‑UT) — ENR Chair; public‑lands skeptic. Can decline to notice a markup or narrow the bill. First veto gate. [2]Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee — Heinrich, Lee Announce Subcommitt…
  • Sen. Steve Daines (R‑MT) — Chair, National Parks Subcommittee; pragmatist on home‑state park bills but aligned with GOP conference priorities this term. Controls subcommittee markups and recommendations to full ENR. [2]Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee — Heinrich, Lee Announce Subcommitt…
  • Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R‑AK) — Senior ENR member; frequent coalition builder on lands packages; potential swing for any package that includes Alaska provisions. [2]Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee — Heinrich, Lee Announce Subcommitt…
  • Sen. Angus King (I‑ME) — Ranking Member, National Parks Subcommittee; supportive voice shepherding Democrats’ case within ENR. [2]Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee — Heinrich, Lee Announce Subcommitt…
  • Sen. John Thune (R‑SD) and Sen. John Barrasso (R‑WY) — Majority Leader/Whip; floor time and conference discipline. Their posture determines whether a bipartisan lands package gets oxygen. [5]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Lea…[6]Senate Republican Conference — Barrasso Elected as Majority Whip for the 119th…
  • Rep. Bruce Westerman (R‑AR) — House Natural Resources Chair; gatekeeper for any House movement. [8]House Natural Resources Committee — Chairman Bruce Westerman — House Committee…
  • Rep. Tom Tiffany (R‑WI) — Federal Lands Subcommittee Chair; controls hearings/markups for park/lands bills. [9]House Natural Resources Committee — Subcommittees — House Committee on Natural…
  • Bill sponsors: Sen. Adam Schiff (D‑CA) with Sen. Alex Padilla (D‑CA) as cosponsor; House sponsor Rep. Laura Friedman (D‑CA‑30). Home‑state advocacy is strong, but cross‑party buy‑in is limited so far. [3]Congress.gov — S.1870 — Rim of the Valley Corridor Preservation Act (Status & C…[15]Office of Sen. Adam Schiff — NEWS: Sen. Schiff, Rep. Friedman Introduce Rim of…[4]Congress.gov — H.R. 3874 — Rim of the Valley Corridor Preservation Act (House c…
03 · Section

Leadership stance and procedural dynamics

Where this can move — and where it stalls.

  • Senate leadership: Thune has affirmed maintaining the legislative filibuster; without 60 votes, stand‑alone authorizations are rarely prioritized. Realistic path is inclusion in a bipartisan lands package negotiated by ENR and cleared by UC. [5]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Lea…
  • Committee landscape: ENR/National Parks Subcommittee held a Dec. 9 hearing, indicating courtesy to home‑state senators, but no commitment to mark up. Chair Lee’s agenda and broader GOP land‑disposal push suggest low appetite for expanding NPS units absent trades. [3]Congress.gov — S.1870 — Rim of the Valley Corridor Preservation Act (Status & C…[2]Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee — Heinrich, Lee Announce Subcommitt…[13]Washington Post — Senate GOP plan would sell millions of acres of Western publi…
  • House leadership: With a slim GOP majority, Johnson’s floor doesn’t burn time on Dem‑sponsored park expansions lacking GOP co‑sponsors; Natural Resources has focused on revenue/production and selected land sales to fund priorities. [7]Associated Press — Republican Matt Van Epps sworn in, bolstering House GOP majo…[14]KUNC — House Republicans approve public lands sales in energy budget
  • Interest groups: Strong support from NPCA and allied local coalitions; this helps with Democratic unity and some Western Republicans, but it doesn’t overcome gatekeeper resistance. [12]National Parks Conservation Association — NPCA: Support the Proposed Rim of the…
  • Substance/precedent: Proposal implements NPS’s 2016 study recommendation for boundary adjustments using cooperative management (limited federal ownership), language that preserves utilities/water operations — a standard feature intended to neutralize local infrastructure opposition. [11]National Park Service — NPS: Rim of the Valley Corridor Special Resource Study…[16]Congress.gov — S.1870 — Bill Text (Introduced)
04 · Section

Assessment: whip count and odds

Bottom line from a vote‑count and procedure perspective.

  • Senate whip (stand‑alone): Likely 47 D/I yes; 2–5 R yes; 45–50 R no. Cloture short of 60 under current alignment — low probability without packaging. Confidence: moderate. [1]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Party Division
  • House whip (stand‑alone): Most Democrats yes; most Republicans no given committee posture and lack of GOP co‑sponsors on H.R. 3874. Unlikely to receive a markup in Federal Lands or full committee. Confidence: high. [10]Congress.gov — H.R. 3874 — Cosponsors[9]House Natural Resources Committee — Subcommittees — House Committee on Natural…
  • Best path: Year‑end or pre‑adjournment bipartisan lands package negotiated through ENR, trading California language for priorities in Alaska/Montana/Maine, then hotlined in the Senate and taken up by suspension/UC equivalents. Odds improve materially if at least a few House Rs from California or Western delegations sign on to the House bill. Confidence: moderate. [2]Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee — Heinrich, Lee Announce Subcommitt…
  • Overall likelihood of passage in this Congress: Low as a stand‑alone; moderate if packaged and paired with GOP‑favored lands/energy provisions.
Senate balance (119th)
53R seats (47 D/I) [1]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Party Division
House balance snapshot
220R to 213 D [7]Associated Press — Republican Matt Van Epps sworn in, bolstering House GOP majo…
S.1870 status
1Subcommittee hearing held 12/09/2025 [3]Congress.gov — S.1870 — Rim of the Valley Corridor Preservation Act (Status & C…
House companion (H.R. 3874)
7Cosponsors, all D (as of last update) [10]Congress.gov — H.R. 3874 — Cosponsors
Proposed addition
118000Acres (approx.) [18]SFGATE — Senators propose adding acreage to SoCal park sites
Sources cited
  1. [1] U.S. Senate: Party Division U.S. Senate
  2. [2] Heinrich, Lee Announce Subcommittee Assignments for 119th Congress Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee
  3. [3] S.1870 — Rim of the Valley Corridor Preservation Act (Status & Committee Meeting) Congress.gov
  4. [4] H.R. 3874 — Rim of the Valley Corridor Preservation Act (House companion) Congress.gov
  5. [5] Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Leader Office of Sen. John Thune
  6. [6] Barrasso Elected as Majority Whip for the 119th Congress Senate Republican Conference
  7. [7] Republican Matt Van Epps sworn in, bolstering House GOP majority Associated Press
  8. [8] Chairman Bruce Westerman — House Committee on Natural Resources House Natural Resources Committee
  9. [9] Subcommittees — House Committee on Natural Resources House Natural Resources Committee
  10. [10] H.R. 3874 — Cosponsors Congress.gov
  11. [11] NPS: Rim of the Valley Corridor Special Resource Study (Final, 2016) National Park Service
  12. [12] NPCA: Support the Proposed Rim of the Valley Expansion National Parks Conservation Association
  13. [13] Senate GOP plan would sell millions of acres of Western public land Washington Post
  14. [14] House Republicans approve public lands sales in energy budget KUNC
  15. [15] NEWS: Sen. Schiff, Rep. Friedman Introduce Rim of the Valley bill Office of Sen. Adam Schiff
  16. [16] S.1870 — Bill Text (Introduced) Congress.gov
  17. [17] Lawmakers revive effort to expand Santa Monica Mountains recreation area Los Angeles Times
  18. [18] Senators propose adding acreage to SoCal park sites SFGATE

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