119-HR-845 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

Breakdown: expected support and opposition

Context: H.R. 845 (Pet and Livestock Protection Act) directs Interior to reissue the November 3, 2020 gray‑wolf delisting rule and bars judicial review. It was reported by House Natural Resources and teed up by a closed rule for floor consideration this week. [6]Congress.gov — H.R.845 - Pet and Livestock Protection Act | Congress.gov[7]Congress.gov — House Report 119-332 - Pet and Livestock Protection Act[1]Congress.gov — H.Res. 951 (closed rule for H.R. 845 and others) | Congress.gov

• House GOP: Expect strong support. The combined rule covering H.R. 845 passed 215–209 on Dec. 16 under a closed rule—an excellent proxy for majority alignment heading into final passage. Anticipate R yeas in the low‑to‑mid 210s, with a small handful of defectors. [1]Congress.gov — H.Res. 951 (closed rule for H.R. 845 and others) | Congress.gov[8]House Republican Cloakroom — Republican Cloakroom: Dec. 16, 2025 vote totals (H…
• House Democrats: Expect near‑uniform opposition, with a narrow tail of crossover votes. In the 118th Congress, the prior wolves bill (H.R. 764) passed 209–205 with just four Democratic yeas and four GOP nays—useful precedent for this floor. [2]Office of the Clerk, U.S. House — Clerk of the House: Roll Call 169 (Apr. 30, 2…
• Committee signal: Natural Resources reported H.R. 845 24–17, and the committee report confirms the text’s “no judicial review” clause—both indicators of solid majority support on the R side and locked‑in D opposition. [7]Congress.gov — House Report 119-332 - Pet and Livestock Protection Act
• Interest coalitions: Producer/hunting groups (e.g., R‑CALF USA; Safari Club International) publicly back delisting; conservation groups (Defenders of Wildlife, NPCA) oppose and are whipping against the bill. [9]R‑CALF USA — R‑CALF USA: Calls for swift passage of H.R. 845 (May 28, 2025)[10]Safari Club International — Safari Club International: Supports FWS decision; u…[11]Defenders of Wildlife — Defenders of Wildlife: House vote scheduled to end gray…[12]NPCA — National Parks Conservation Association: Position on H.R. 845 (Mar. 25,…
• Senate GOP/Dem breakdown: Republicans hold the Senate majority (53–45–2), but the legislative filibuster remains; most legislation still needs 60. Even with broad Republican support, Democrats/Independents could block cloture absent at least seven crossover votes. [3]U.S. Senate — Senate Party Division – 119th Congress[4]Congressional Research Service — CRS: Filibusters and Cloture in the Senate (RL…
• Executive alignment: The Trump Administration previously delisted gray wolves in 2020; current White House is ideologically aligned to sign if a bill reaches the President. [13]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — FWS: Trump Administration Announces Gray Wolf De…[5]The White House — White House: President Donald J. Trump (Administration page)

Key legislators to watch

Pivotal members are defined by past voting behavior on wolf policy, institutional positions, or leverage over vehicles that could carry the language.

• House Democratic crossovers: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA‑03) supported the 118th‑Congress wolf bill—a signal she is movable again, though not guaranteed. [14]Northwest Progressive Institute — NPI Cascadia Advocate: How Cascadia’s lawmake…
• Possible House GOP defectors: The 118th floor saw four Republican nays on wolf delisting; expect a small R tail again given the “no judicial review” clause and environmental‑leaning districts. Use the prior roll as guide rather than hard names. [2]Office of the Clerk, U.S. House — Clerk of the House: Roll Call 169 (Apr. 30, 2…
• House gatekeepers: Speaker Mike Johnson set the bill on the floor via a closed rule; expect leadership to keep the conference largely intact. Natural Resources Chair Bruce Westerman is the bill’s institutional sponsor and whip validator. [1]Congress.gov — H.Res. 951 (closed rule for H.R. 845 and others) | Congress.gov[15]U.S. House — Speaker Mike Johnson – official site (bio notes as Speaker)[16]House Committee on Natural Resources — House Natural Resources: Chairman Bruce…
• Senate floor: Majority Leader John Thune has defended keeping the filibuster; absent 60 votes, the bill stalls unless packaged. [17]Web search · turn 5 #0[4]Congressional Research Service — CRS: Filibusters and Cloture in the Senate (RL…
• Senate committees: EPW Chair Shelley Moore Capito controls authorizing movement; Ranking Member Sheldon Whitehouse anchors opposition. Their subcommittee lineup puts Fisheries, Wildlife & Water squarely under GOP control, but that does not overcome cloture. [18]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW Committee: 119th Congress subcommittee assignme…
• Appropriations leverage: Chair Susan Collins (R‑ME) controls the likely vehicle for any year‑end riders; her posture and cross‑party talks will determine feasibility of a delisting rider. [19]U.S. Senate — Sen. Susan Collins becomes Chair of Senate Appropriations

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

Where this actually lives procedurally will determine outcomes far more than messaging.

1. House control: Rules provided a closed rule (no floor amendments), one MTR, and bundled consideration—classic leadership management to protect a fragile majority. Expect passage on a near party‑line if/when the bill is called. [1]Congress.gov — H.Res. 951 (closed rule for H.R. 845 and others) | Congress.gov
2. Senate filibuster: With the legislative filibuster intact, 60 votes are required to proceed and to end debate on final passage. There is no credible path to 60 on a stand‑alone wolves bill. [4]Congressional Research Service — CRS: Filibusters and Cloture in the Senate (RL…
3. Reconciliation is not available: ESA policy changes are “extraneous” under the Byrd Rule; a reconciliation vehicle cannot carry this delisting language. [20]Congressional Research Service — CRS: The Budget Reconciliation Process – The S…
4. Rider strategy: If this moves, it’s via an appropriations rider (e.g., Interior‑Environment) or a cross‑chamber package, replicating the 2011 Northern Rockies wolf rider that directed delisting and barred judicial review. That still needs 60 in the Senate and buy‑in from Appropriations leadership. [21]Animal Legal & Historical Center — 2011 Wolf Rider (P.L. 112-10 §1713) summary
5. Executive signal: The Department’s own hearing record and prior FWS action reflect an administration comfortable executing a delisting if Congress directs it; a present‑day SAP isn’t essential for whip purposes. [22]Web search · turn 9 #3[13]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — FWS: Trump Administration Announces Gray Wolf De…

Assessment: likelihood of passage

Power, procedure, and timing drive the forecast.

• House: High likelihood of passage (confidence: high). The rule vote margin and prior whip experience on wolves suggest Rs hold together with minimal defections; a small number of D crossovers are possible but not necessary. [1]Congress.gov — H.Res. 951 (closed rule for H.R. 845 and others) | Congress.gov
• Senate (stand‑alone): Low likelihood (confidence: high). GOP majority is insufficient to defeat a filibuster; environmental groups will pressure D/I senators to sustain. [3]U.S. Senate — Senate Party Division – 119th Congress[4]Congressional Research Service — CRS: Filibusters and Cloture in the Senate (RL…[11]Defenders of Wildlife — Defenders of Wildlife: House vote scheduled to end gray…
• Senate (as rider): Low‑to‑moderate (confidence: moderate). Precedent exists (2011 rider), but success hinges on inclusion in a must‑pass, the absence of a deal‑breaking veto threat from D senators needed for 60, and Appropriations Chair Collins’ tolerance for ESA riders. [21]Animal Legal & Historical Center — 2011 Wolf Rider (P.L. 112-10 §1713) summary[19]U.S. Senate — Sen. Susan Collins becomes Chair of Senate Appropriations
• White House: If enacted, signature is likely given alignment with the 2020 FWS delisting and overall administration posture. [13]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — FWS: Trump Administration Announces Gray Wolf De…[5]The White House — White House: President Donald J. Trump (Administration page)

Sourcing highlights (public positions and records)

Core citations underpinning the whip and procedural calls: