119-HRES-106 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

What the measure is and where it sits

H.Res.106 expresses the sense of the House that the U.N. Security Council should impose an arms embargo on Burma’s military. It is a simple House resolution (non‑binding; no presidential signature) and, as of today, it remains at “referred to Foreign Affairs” with no further action recorded. [5]Library of Congress — Bill Text for H.Res.106 (119th): Congress.gov[1]Library of Congress — All Actions for H.Res.106 (119th): Congress.gov[6]Web search · turn 16 #0

Breakdown: expected support by party/caucus

Assuming the measure is brought up under suspension of the rules (typical for HFAC statements), passage requires two‑thirds of members present and voting. Given sponsorship and precedent votes on Myanmar, support should be broad and bipartisan. [8]Congressional Research Service / Library of Congress — CRS In Focus: Suspension…[9]Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives — House Clerk Roll Call 97 (…

• Republicans: Lean supportive overall for a non‑binding human‑rights statement; some Freedom Caucus/“America First” members have opposed similar Myanmar measures before (e.g., 14 GOP “no” votes in 2021). Expect a few dozen potential nays. [9]Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives — House Clerk Roll Call 97 (…
• Democrats: Near‑unanimous yes. Current cosponsor slate includes progressives and moderates (e.g., Ilhan Omar, Jerrold Nadler, Jahana Hayes), signaling caucus breadth. [10]Library of Congress — Congress.gov All-Info page (cosponsors list) for H.Res.10…
• Institutional math: House controlled by Republicans; narrow margin means suspension items move only with cross‑party buy‑in, but that is available here. [3]U.S. House Radio-TV Gallery — House Radio-TV Gallery: Party Breakdown (updated…

Key legislators and swing blocs

Gatekeepers drive outcome more than ideology on this one. The decisive variable is whether leadership allocates suspension time and whether HFAC requests it. [8]Congressional Research Service / Library of Congress — CRS In Focus: Suspension…

• Speaker Mike Johnson (R‑LA): Controls floor with the Leader; has shown willingness to run bipartisan suspension items when conferences agree. Net‑positive if HFAC submits. [2]Associated Press — AP: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected Speaker as 119th Congres…
• Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R‑LA): Owns the calendar; green‑lights suspension lists. If he slots it, odds of passage are high. [12]Web search · turn 10 #1
• HFAC Chair Brian Mast (R‑FL): Committee lead and chief requestor for suspension time on Foreign Affairs items; his blessing is pivotal. [4]House Foreign Affairs Committee (Republicans) — HFAC GOP: McCaul congratulates…
• HFAC RM Gregory Meeks (D‑NY): Can deliver unified Democratic backing and help secure two‑thirds. [13]House Foreign Affairs Committee (Democrats) — HFAC Democrats: Meeks announces 1…
• Bipartisan sponsors/cosponsors: Claudia Tenney (R‑NY) and Joaquin Castro (D‑TX) front the push; GOP names like Joe Wilson, Bill Huizenga, James Baird, and Blake Moore provide cover. [5]Library of Congress — Bill Text for H.Res.106 (119th): Congress.gov[10]Library of Congress — Congress.gov All-Info page (cosponsors list) for H.Res.10…
• Likely opponents to watch (pattern votes): A slice of the Freedom Caucus/right‑populist wing (e.g., Boebert, Biggs, Gaetz, Greene) voted “no” on a 2021 Myanmar resolution; they could reprise that posture. [14]Web search · turn 14 #3[15]Web search · turn 14 #12

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

Path of least resistance is a suspension vote; no Senate action is required for a simple House resolution. The chokepoints are leadership’s floor time and HFAC’s request. [8]Congressional Research Service / Library of Congress — CRS In Focus: Suspension…[6]Web search · turn 16 #0

• Procedure: Non‑privileged, typically scheduled under suspension (40 minutes debate; no floor amendments; two‑thirds to pass). [8]Congressional Research Service / Library of Congress — CRS In Focus: Suspension…
• House control: GOP majority with slim margin; Johnson/Scalise decide whether to queue this amid competing priorities. [2]Associated Press — AP: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected Speaker as 119th Congres…[3]U.S. House Radio-TV Gallery — House Radio-TV Gallery: Party Breakdown (updated…
• Committee context: HFAC under Chair Mast can move this quickly if leadership seeks human‑rights messaging; Democrats (RM Meeks) will supply votes. [4]House Foreign Affairs Committee (Republicans) — HFAC GOP: McCaul congratulates…[13]House Foreign Affairs Committee (Democrats) — HFAC Democrats: Meeks announces 1…
• Senate/White House: Not applicable to adoption; this is a House‑only statement (no presentment). [7]Congressional Research Service / Library of Congress — CRS: Bills, Resolutions,…
• Calendar headwinds: The 43‑day FY26 shutdown compressed year‑end floor time; non‑urgent items slid. A Myanmar‑related news spike could elevate priority. [16]ABC News / Associated Press — ABC News/AP: Trump signs bill ending 43‑day shutd…[17]Associated Press — AP: Myanmar hospital airstrike kills dozens (Dec. 13, 2025)

Interest groups and external signals

Human‑rights NGOs strongly back a global arms embargo on Myanmar; fresh reporting from the ground sharpens the case and gives cover to schedule a vote. [18]Amnesty International — Amnesty International: Four years after coup, call for…[17]Associated Press — AP: Myanmar hospital airstrike kills dozens (Dec. 13, 2025)

• Advocacy: Amnesty International and allied NGOs have repeatedly urged a binding global arms embargo and accountability mechanisms. [18]Amnesty International — Amnesty International: Four years after coup, call for…
• Crisis salience: New civilian‑casualty incidents (e.g., the hospital strike in Rakhine) keep Myanmar in the news, which leadership often uses to justify quick, bipartisan statements. [17]Associated Press — AP: Myanmar hospital airstrike kills dozens (Dec. 13, 2025)
• Past practice: The House previously produced lopsided bipartisan votes condemning the 2021 coup and backing Burma democracy efforts—useful precedent for whipping moderates. [9]Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives — House Clerk Roll Call 97 (…

Assessment: likelihood of passage

What will happen, not what should happen: with leadership time, this clears; without it, it lingers.

Likelihood of passage if scheduled under suspension: High. Expect 300+ yeas and a few dozen GOP nays based on the 2021 pattern and the current bipartisan cosponsor mix. Confidence: high for the vote, moderate overall pending calendar. [9]Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives — House Clerk Roll Call 97 (…[10]Library of Congress — Congress.gov All-Info page (cosponsors list) for H.Res.10…

• Gate to watch: Majority Leader’s weekly suspension list. If HFAC asks and Johnson/Scalise agree, it moves. [12]Web search · turn 10 #1
• Timing cue: Myanmar coup anniversary (Feb. 1) is a logical peg for scheduling early in 2026 if December time stays tight. [5]Library of Congress — Bill Text for H.Res.106 (119th): Congress.gov
• Institutional note: As a simple House resolution, no Senate or presidential action is required; adoption is entirely an internal House decision. [7]Congressional Research Service / Library of Congress — CRS: Bills, Resolutions,…