119-HRES-833 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

Bill context and institutional setup

- H.Res. 833 (simple resolution) honors Dr. Jane Goodall; introduced Oct 24, 2025 and referred to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. As a simple resolution, it applies only to the House and is not sent to the Senate or President. [1]Congress.gov — H.Res.833 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Honoring the extraordina…[2]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Types of Legislation (simple resolutions explained)

• Current control/leverage: Republicans hold House and Senate; House floor time and suspension lists are set by Speaker Mike Johnson, Majority Leader Steve Scalise, and Whip Tom Emmer. [4]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: Membership of the 119th…[5]Associated Press — AP: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House speaker (119th Con…[6]House.gov (Office of Rep. Steve Scalise) — Press release: Scalise re-elected Ma…[7]House Majority Whip (Tom Emmer) — House Majority Whip site (119th Congress)
• Committee gate: HFAC is chaired by Rep. Brian Mast (R‑FL), giving the majority leverage over any committee-level consideration; however, suspension can bypass a markup. [8]House Committee on Foreign Affairs (Republicans) — Committee on Foreign Affairs…[3]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: Suspension of the Rules…
• Procedural vehicle: Likely scheduled under suspension of the rules (40 minutes debate, no floor amendments, two‑thirds of those present and voting required). [3]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: Suspension of the Rules…
• Context for timing: Goodall’s death on Oct 1, 2025 makes near‑term commemoration timely, which House leaders often accommodate on suspension days. [9]Associated Press — AP: Jane Goodall has died at 91 (obituary)[10]Web search · turn 3 #1

Breakdown: expected support/opposition

Expect broad bipartisan support consistent with past commemorative and animal‑welfare tributes brought up on suspension. Two‑thirds threshold means the measure only moves if GOP leaders see ample Republican ayes. [3]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: Suspension of the Rules…

Key legislators and swing votes

Pivotal members are those with scheduling power and Republicans with visible animal‑welfare profiles who can validate GOP votes on a Democratic‑sponsored tribute.

• Speaker Mike Johnson (R‑LA) and Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R‑LA): control suspension calendar; will only bring it if two‑thirds is assured. [5]Associated Press — AP: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House speaker (119th Con…[6]House.gov (Office of Rep. Steve Scalise) — Press release: Scalise re-elected Ma…
• HFAC Chair Brian Mast (R‑FL): committee sign‑off/coordination; no public opposition noted; chair’s office commonly facilitates tribute suspensions within jurisdiction. [8]House Committee on Foreign Affairs (Republicans) — Committee on Foreign Affairs…
• Whip Tom Emmer (R‑MN): counts Republican votes for the two‑thirds margin. [7]House Majority Whip (Tom Emmer) — House Majority Whip site (119th Congress)
• Rep. Mike Quigley (D‑IL), sponsor and Animal Protection Caucus co‑chair: will anchor Democratic floor management and message. [1]Congress.gov — H.Res.833 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Honoring the extraordina…[18]Web search · turn 8 #0
• Republican validators likely to lean yes based on record: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R‑PA) and Rep. Vern Buchanan (R‑FL) as animal‑welfare leaders; Rep. Nancy Mace (R‑SC) as CPSA co‑sponsor. Their visible support would minimize GOP defections. [11]House.gov (Office of Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick) — Press release: Fitzpatrick intro…[19]Web search · turn 6 #2[13]Animal Welfare Institute — AWI: Captive Primate Safety Act reintroduced (May 6,…
• Potential pockets of resistance: a slice of hard‑right Republicans who have opposed messaging or commemorative measures on suspension in recent Congresses; not issue‑specific but procedural/ideological. [14]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: Suspension practice in 1…

Leadership influence and procedure

• Vehicle: Suspension of the rules (Rule XV) — 40 minutes debate, no floor amendments, two‑thirds threshold; used by leadership for noncontroversial items. [3]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: Suspension of the Rules…
• Calendar control: Johnson/Scalise choose if/when to slot H.Res. 833; HFAC need not report the resolution for suspension consideration. [10]Web search · turn 3 #1
• Jurisdiction: Referred to HFAC; chairman (Mast) and ranking member (Meeks) typically manage debate. [1]Congress.gov — H.Res.833 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Honoring the extraordina…[8]House Committee on Foreign Affairs (Republicans) — Committee on Foreign Affairs…
• Senate/White House: No role — simple House resolution does not proceed to the Senate or President. [2]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Types of Legislation (simple resolutions explained)

Assessment: likelihood of passage

Bottom line from a whip perspective: this is a classic suspension candidate in a GOP House that routinely moves nonbinding tributes when bipartisan votes are visible.

• Likelihood: High. Democrats supply near‑unanimous ayes; animal‑welfare Republicans plus HFAC majority deliver the additional votes to clear two‑thirds. [1]Congress.gov — H.Res.833 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Honoring the extraordina…[11]House.gov (Office of Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick) — Press release: Fitzpatrick intro…[19]Web search · turn 6 #2
• Expected vote contour: Passage via voice or by recorded vote in the 320–380 range, consistent with recent bipartisan commemorative votes on suspension. [20]Reuters — Reuters: House passes bipartisan resolution honoring Charlie Kirk (31…

Key sourcing notes

• Bill status and referral: Congress.gov listing for H.Res. 833. [1]Congress.gov — H.Res.833 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Honoring the extraordina…
• Simple resolution scope (House‑only) and Senate explainer: Senate.gov. [2]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Types of Legislation (simple resolutions explained)
• Suspension procedure details: CRS primers and practice notes. [3]Congressional Research Service via Congress.gov — CRS: Suspension of the Rules…[10]Web search · turn 3 #1
• House control/leadership confirmations: AP on Speaker vote; Scalise press release; Majority Whip site. [5]Associated Press — AP: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House speaker (119th Con…[6]House.gov (Office of Rep. Steve Scalise) — Press release: Scalise re-elected Ma…[7]House Majority Whip (Tom Emmer) — House Majority Whip site (119th Congress)
• HFAC leadership and committee page: official HFAC Republican site. [8]House Committee on Foreign Affairs (Republicans) — Committee on Foreign Affairs…
• Interest‑group/coalition signals on CPSA: AWI, IFAW, and JGI pages; Goodall’s own past testimony record. [13]Animal Welfare Institute — AWI: Captive Primate Safety Act reintroduced (May 6,…[16]International Fund for Animal Welfare — IFAW press release backing Captive Prim…[15]Jane Goodall Institute USA — Jane Goodall Institute USA — Advocate for the Capt…[21]Congress.gov — 2008 HFAC hearing record with Goodall statement supporting CPSA
• Context on Goodall’s passing prompting the tribute: AP obituary. [9]Associated Press — AP: Jane Goodall has died at 91 (obituary)