Analyses / Whip Count Analysis / 119 · S 148 Whip Count Analysis

119-S-148 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

119 · S 148 RED TAPE Act

settings Government Operations and Politics
Regulations Evaluated to Determine The Anticipated Price and Effect Act or the RED TAPE ActThis bill prohibits federal agencies from considering any nonmonetized or unquantified factor when...

Bottom line: With Republicans running the White House, Senate (53–47), and House (220–215), S.148 (RED TAPE Act) will move through Senate HSGAC and find easy footing in the House, but it runs straight into the Senate’s 60‑vote wall. Unless Republicans secure multiple Democratic/Independent crossovers or narrow the bill to allow limited non‑monetized factors, final passage this Congress is unlikely. [1]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress (2025–2027) — composition and control[2]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — Text — S.148 (119th): RED TAPE Act[3]U.S. Senate — About Filibusters and Cloture

Analyzed as
DC Insider
Published
21 Nov 2025
Updated
21 Nov 2025
Tags
whip-count · regulatory-policy · 119th-Congress
Unvetted
01 · Section

Breakdown: expected support and opposition

Anchored in the current partisan map, committee referrals, and public leadership signals.

  • Senate landscape: GOP holds 53–47 majority, but legislation needs 60 to beat a filibuster; S.148 was introduced by Sen. Ernst and referred to Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs (HSGAC). Expect near party‑line Republican support; Democrats/Independents are positioned to oppose given longstanding OMB guidance that agencies may consider important non‑monetized effects. [1]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress (2025–2027) — composition and control[3]U.S. Senate — About Filibusters and Cloture[2]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — Text — S.148 (119th): RED TAPE Act[4]WhiteHouse.gov (Archived OMB) — OMB: Final guidance on revising Circular A‑4 —…
  • Committee posture: HSGAC (Chair Rand Paul; Ranking Gary Peters) is ideologically favorable to reporting the bill. Expect a partisan report if leadership calls it up. [5]Wikipedia — Senate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committee — 119th C…
  • Allied messaging venue: The Senate Small Business & Entrepreneurship Committee (Chair Ernst; Ranking Markey) held a November 19, 2025 hearing on regulatory rollback; while not the reporting committee for S.148, it indicates coordinated majority messaging and small‑business framing. [6]U.S. Senate Committee on Small Business & Entrepreneurship — Senate Small Busin…[7]SBA Office of Advocacy — SBA Office of Advocacy testimony (Nov. 19, 2025)
  • House outlook: With a 220–215 GOP majority and Speaker Mike Johnson reelected, deregulatory measures aligned with the majority’s agenda typically pass on near party lines. Expect House passage if/when the Senate sends a vehicle. [1]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress (2025–2027) — composition and control[8]AP News — Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House Speaker as 119th Congress opens
  • Interest‑group signals: Business community actors have criticized the 2023 A‑4/A‑94 revisions (e.g., U.S. Chamber). Progressive/consumer groups (e.g., Public Citizen; Center for Progressive Reform) defend consideration of non‑monetized benefits, aligning them against S.148’s categorical ban. [9]U.S. Chamber of Commerce — U.S. Chamber letter on proposed OMB Circular A‑4[10]Public Citizen — Public Citizen comments supporting A‑4 modernization[11]Center for Progressive Reform — Center for Progressive Reform — critique of mon…
Senate control (R)
53seats
House control (R)
220seats
Senate cloture threshold
60votes
02 · Section

Key legislators and potential swing votes

Pivot points are defined by sponsors, gatekeepers, and a small set of members with leverage to narrow or block the bill.

  • Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA): Lead sponsor; also chairs Senate Small Business & Entrepreneurship. She has used the committee as a platform for regulatory‑rollback messaging (11/19/25 hearing), which increases pressure on HSGAC to act. [2]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — Text — S.148 (119th): RED TAPE Act[12]Web search · turn 6 #1[6]U.S. Senate Committee on Small Business & Entrepreneurship — Senate Small Busin…
  • Sen. James Lankford (R-OK): Original cosponsor; chairs HSGAC’s Border Management, Federal Workforce, and Regulatory Affairs subcommittee—positioned to support floor and committee strategy. [2]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — Text — S.148 (119th): RED TAPE Act[5]Wikipedia — Senate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committee — 119th C…
  • Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) and Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI): HSGAC Chair/Ranking; Paul can drive a partisan markup, while Peters is the natural focal point for minority opposition framing. [5]Wikipedia — Senate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committee — 119th C…
  • Sen. John Thune (R-SD), Majority Leader: Has publicly prioritized reining in “burdensome” Biden‑era regulations, signaling leadership backing to schedule the bill if votes materialize. [13]Senate Republican Leader — Senate Republican Leader site — Thune’s first remark…[14]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune floor remarks: GOP to rein in burdensome regu…
  • Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Minority Leader: Manages a caucus that has defended the inclusion of non‑monetized benefits in analysis; expect him to hold the line against cloture absent concessions. [15]News result · turn 16 #13[4]WhiteHouse.gov (Archived OMB) — OMB: Final guidance on revising Circular A‑4 —…
  • Watchlist GOP moderates: Sens. Lisa Murkowski (AK) and Susan Collins (ME) often occupy the decisive middle on regulatory and process fights; both are repeatedly described as moderates who break with the party. If they demand carve‑outs (e.g., narrow exceptions for dignity/health impacts), that signals GOP votes are not perfectly locked. [16]Washington Post — WaPo: Murkowski as a moderate Republican breaking with party[17]AP News — AP: Murkowski defies Trump agenda; a moderate with bipartisan streak[18]Wikipedia — Lisa Murkowski — profile noting moderate/swing‑vote reputation[19]Wikipedia — Susan Collins — profile describing centrist/moderate record
  • Potential crossover targets (Dem/Ind): Republicans would still need roughly seven Democratic/Independent votes to invoke cloture; likely targets would be business‑friendly or purple‑state Democrats/Independents, but no public commitments have emerged. [3]U.S. Senate — About Filibusters and Cloture
03 · Section

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

Outcome hinges more on procedure than persuasion.

  • White House posture: The administration is aligned with deregulatory moves; Trump/Vance took office January 20, 2025. Signing prospects are strong if a bill reaches the Resolute Desk. [20]People — Donald Trump sworn in as 47th U.S. President (Jan. 20, 2025)
  • Senate floor reality: With the filibuster intact, policy bills need 60; Thune lacks the votes to scrap the rule despite periodic calls to do so. Translation: this bill must attract cross‑party support or be materially narrowed. [3]U.S. Senate — About Filibusters and Cloture[21]New York Post — Thune says he lacks votes to eliminate filibuster despite press…
  • Byrd Rule path closed: This is authorizing language amending Title 5; it is not budgetary and would likely be ruled extraneous in reconciliation, foreclosing a 51‑vote path. [22]Congressional Research Service (Congress.gov) — CRS: The Senate’s Byrd Rule — F…
  • Committee gatekeepers: HSGAC (Paul/Peters) controls reporting; Small Business (Ernst/Markey) provides political air cover but not formal jurisdiction for S.148. Expect HSGAC to be the bottleneck/launchpad. [5]Wikipedia — Senate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committee — 119th C…[23]Congress.gov (Library of Congress) — All Info — S.148 (actions incl. 11/19/25 S…[6]U.S. Senate Committee on Small Business & Entrepreneurship — Senate Small Busin…
  • Policy backdrop shaping votes: The 2023 OMB A‑4/A‑94 updates explicitly instruct agencies to catalog important non‑monetized effects (e.g., dignity benefits in disability access), a frame Democrats will use to oppose S.148’s categorical ban; business groups have pushed back on those updates. [4]WhiteHouse.gov (Archived OMB) — OMB: Final guidance on revising Circular A‑4 —…[24]Web search · turn 7 #4[25]Web search · turn 13 #4[9]U.S. Chamber of Commerce — U.S. Chamber letter on proposed OMB Circular A‑4
04 · Section

Assessment: whip count and odds of passage

Power, numbers, and procedure drive the call.

  • Senate whip count (floor): GOP likely supplies the bulk of yes votes, but reaching 60 is the hurdle; current signals point to unified Democratic/Independent opposition anchored in OMB’s guidance and allied groups. Estimate: short of cloture absent material carve‑outs. Confidence: moderate. [3]U.S. Senate — About Filibusters and Cloture[4]WhiteHouse.gov (Archived OMB) — OMB: Final guidance on revising Circular A‑4 —…
  • Senate committee stage: Likely reported from HSGAC on a party‑line or near party‑line vote if leadership prioritizes it. Confidence: high. [5]Wikipedia — Senate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committee — 119th C…
  • House passage: If the Senate sends a vehicle, expect near party‑line passage under the GOP’s narrow majority and leadership alignment. Confidence: high. [1]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress (2025–2027) — composition and control[8]AP News — Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House Speaker as 119th Congress opens
  • Overall likelihood this Congress: Low, unless sponsors narrow the prohibition (e.g., allowing limited, enumerated non‑monetized factors) to peel off several Democratic/Independent senators. Otherwise the 60‑vote Senate threshold will block final passage. Confidence: moderate. [3]U.S. Senate — About Filibusters and Cloture
Sources cited
  1. [1] 119th United States Congress (2025–2027) — composition and control Wikipedia
  2. [2] Text — S.148 (119th): RED TAPE Act Congress.gov (Library of Congress)
  3. [3] About Filibusters and Cloture U.S. Senate
  4. [4] OMB: Final guidance on revising Circular A‑4 — treatment of non‑monetized effects WhiteHouse.gov (Archived OMB)
  5. [5] Senate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committee — 119th Congress (leadership, roster) Wikipedia
  6. [6] Senate Small Business & Entrepreneurship — Hearings page (Nov. 19, 2025) U.S. Senate Committee on Small Business & Entrepreneurship
  7. [7] SBA Office of Advocacy testimony (Nov. 19, 2025) SBA Office of Advocacy
  8. [8] Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House Speaker as 119th Congress opens AP News
  9. [9] U.S. Chamber letter on proposed OMB Circular A‑4 U.S. Chamber of Commerce
  10. [10] Public Citizen comments supporting A‑4 modernization Public Citizen
  11. [11] Center for Progressive Reform — critique of monetize‑everything CBA Center for Progressive Reform
  12. [12] Web search · turn 6 #1
  13. [13] Senate Republican Leader site — Thune’s first remarks as Majority Leader (Jan. 3, 2025) Senate Republican Leader
  14. [14] Thune floor remarks: GOP to rein in burdensome regulations Office of Sen. John Thune
  15. [15] News result · turn 16 #13
  16. [16] WaPo: Murkowski as a moderate Republican breaking with party Washington Post
  17. [17] AP: Murkowski defies Trump agenda; a moderate with bipartisan streak AP News
  18. [18] Lisa Murkowski — profile noting moderate/swing‑vote reputation Wikipedia
  19. [19] Susan Collins — profile describing centrist/moderate record Wikipedia
  20. [20] Donald Trump sworn in as 47th U.S. President (Jan. 20, 2025) People
  21. [21] Thune says he lacks votes to eliminate filibuster despite pressure New York Post
  22. [22] CRS: The Senate’s Byrd Rule — FAQ Congressional Research Service (Congress.gov)
  23. [23] All Info — S.148 (actions incl. 11/19/25 Small Business hearing entry) Congress.gov (Library of Congress)
  24. [24] Web search · turn 7 #4
  25. [25] Web search · turn 13 #4
  26. [26] Web search · turn 10 #1
  27. [27] Web search · turn 10 #3

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