119-HR-3831 DC Insider Procedural Viability Check

Assessment and score

Bottom line: movable if it rides or runs as a noncontroversial UC/suspension; harder as a stand‑alone with scarce late‑session floor time. Composite viability: 3/5. House committee marked up on Mar. 5, 2026; Congress.gov still shows no CBO estimate posted. [1]U.S. House Committee Repository — Full Committee Markup agenda listing H.R. 383…

Rubric walkthrough

• Chamber of Origin: House bill led by Rep. Daniel Webster with bipartisan Florida co‑sponsors; heard in Subcommittee (Jul. 22, 2025). Strength: regional, bipartisan; Weakness: House‑only to date. [2]Library of Congress — Congress.gov All Info for H.R. 3831 (status, cosponsors,…
• Vehicle Type: Amends Magnuson‑Stevens; not must‑pass on its own. Best hook is to hitch to a maritime/NOAA or CJS train; precedent exists for maritime titles getting folded into larger vehicles (e.g., Coast Guard Authorization carried in the FY26 NDAA). [3]House T&I Committee — Coast Guard Authorization Act of 2025 page (noting inclus…
• Senate Threshold: Non‑budget authorizing bill; needs UC or 60 for cloture if contested. Majority Leader controls the floor and UC framework. [4]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: About Parties and Leadership — Majority/Minority Lea…
• Committee Path: House Natural Resources advanced it (ordered reported Mar. 5, 2026). On the Senate side, Commerce (Chair Cruz) would have jurisdiction; no public Senate companion posted. [1]U.S. House Committee Repository — Full Committee Markup agenda listing H.R. 383…
• Must‑Pass Potential: Viable as a small rider to a maritime/NOAA/CJS minibus or another end‑of‑year vehicle; as a pure stand‑alone it competes with appropriations and campaign‑season messaging. [3]House T&I Committee — Coast Guard Authorization Act of 2025 page (noting inclus…
• Budget Scorekeeping: Prohibitory policy with enforcement under existing MSA authorities; no new program. No CBO estimate posted on Congress.gov as of today. [2]Library of Congress — Congress.gov All Info for H.R. 3831 (status, cosponsors,…
• Calendar Math: It’s May 22, 2026 in the 2nd session; floor time tight. Realistic windows: suspension week in the House; hotline/UC in the Senate tied to a larger maritime/CJS package. (Analytic assessment.)

Policy context that helps (or hurts)

• What the bill does: It extends the existing MSA §317 shark‑feeding ban (now limited to Hawaii and certain Pacific areas) to the EEZ off Florida. [5]Cornell LII — 16 U.S.C. §1866 (MSA §317) – Shark feeding (Hawaii/Pacific)
• Florida backdrop: State rules already prohibit fish/shark feeding for divers in state waters; the bill would mirror that policy in adjacent federal waters—reducing state/federal mismatch but drawing pushback from shark‑tour operators. [6]Cornell LII — Fla. Admin. Code R. 68B‑5.005 – Divers: Fish Feeding Prohibited
• Senate climate: Republicans hold the chamber (119th); Thune sets the floor; Commerce Chair Cruz is generally open to moving targeted, member‑priority items when they’re non‑controversial; Florida senators are active on shark issues (e.g., SHARKED Act). Net: a hotline is plausible if stakeholders don’t object. [7]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: Party Division (119th Congress)

Tactical path to yes

1. House: Request suspension of the rules with a tight floor script framed as aligning federal law with Florida’s safety regs; lean on bipartisan Florida delegation. If Rules time opens, keep it closed to amendments to avoid scope creep. [2]Library of Congress — Congress.gov All Info for H.R. 3831 (status, cosponsors,…
2. Senate: Line up a hotline with Florida senators and Commerce staff; be prepared with a UC if no holds materialize. If there’s friction, pivot to a manager’s package on a maritime/CJS vehicle. [4]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate: About Parties and Leadership — Majority/Minority Lea…
3. Fallback: If floor gets crowded, aim for inclusion in any late‑year maritime/NOAA or NDAA‑adjacent division where fishery/Coast Guard items are aggregated. [3]House T&I Committee — Coast Guard Authorization Act of 2025 page (noting inclus…