119-HJRES-130 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

Breakdown: vote alignment and caucus dynamics

• House outcome: Passed 214–212 on Nov 18, 2025. Republicans voted 214–1 in favor; Democrats 0–211; seven not voting. Closed rule via H.Res. 879 controlled floor time. [1]U.S. House of Representatives — Office of the Clerk: Roll Call 294 (Nov 18, 202…[5]House Rules Committee — House Rules Committee: H.J.Res.130 rule (H.Res. 879)
• Substance of the measure: Disapproves BLM’s Nov 20, 2024 Buffalo Field Office Record of Decision (ROD) and Approved RMP Amendment that made no federal coal available for future leasing; GAO determined the ROD is a “rule” under the CRA, enabling fast‑track consideration. [6]Federal Register — Federal Register: Notice of Availability — Buffalo Field Off…[7]Library of Congress — Congress.gov: S.J.Res.89 summary (Buffalo Field Office CR…[8]Congress.gov — Congressional Record: GAO opinion letter printed (B-337503) — CR…
• Senate landscape: GOP holds 53 seats in the 119th Congress. The Senate agreed to the motion to proceed to the companion measure, 51–47, with two Republicans absent; final passage vote is scheduled for today (Thursday, Nov 20, 2025) at approximately 1:45 pm. [2]U.S. Senate — Senate.gov: Party Division — 119th Congress (Republicans 53)[3]U.S. Senate — Senate roll call: Motion to proceed to S.J.Res.89 (Nov 19, 2025)[4]Senate Democratic Caucus — Senate Democratic Caucus: Floor schedule (Nov 20, 20…
• CRA procedure: In the Senate, CRA disapprovals are not subject to filibuster; debate is capped at up to 10 hours and passage requires a simple majority. If enacted, the agency is barred from issuing a “substantially similar” rule absent new statutory authorization. [9]CRS (Congress.gov) — CRS R43992: Congressional Review Act — Frequently Asked Qu…[10]CRS (Congress.gov) — CRS IF10023: The Congressional Review Act — brief overview…
• Issue alignment: Mining and Wyoming leadership oppose the BLM plan; conservation groups backed it. Expect partisan sorting around energy development vs. climate framing. [11]National Mining Association — National Mining Association statement opposing PR…[12]Office of Gov. Mark Gordon — Wyoming Governor press release opposing BLM’s no‑l…[13]PRBRC — Powder River Basin Resource Council: Statement supporting end of PRB co…[14]Reuters — Reuters: Biden administration proposed ending new PRB coal leasing (c…

Key legislators and pivotal votes

• Senate leads from Wyoming: Sens. Lummis and Barrasso are the face of the CRA push (sponsors/champions) and are aligned with state officials and industry; their offices have framed the RMPA as a threat to PRB coal and local revenues. [15]Office of Sen. Cynthia Lummis — Sen. Lummis press release: Introducing CRA to o…[16]Senate Energy & Natural Resources (Republican) site — Wyoming delegation letter…
• Procedural gatekeepers: Majority Leader John Thune controls floor time; his conference’s 53–seat majority plus CRA fast‑track lowers risk of delay. Barrasso serves as Majority Whip. [17]Office of Sen. John Thune — Sen. Thune press release: First remarks as Senate M…[18]Office of Sen. John Barrasso — Sen. Barrasso press release: Sworn in as Senate…
• Centrist GOP watch list (now likely ‘yes’): Sens. Murkowski and Collins often scrutinize environmental rollbacks, but both voted Yea on the motion to proceed, signaling support on final passage. [3]U.S. Senate — Senate roll call: Motion to proceed to S.J.Res.89 (Nov 19, 2025)
• Attendance notes: Motion to proceed showed Sens. Justice (WV) and Tillis (NC) as not voting; Justice’s portfolio and stated energy focus suggest alignment with the CRA on final passage if present. [3]U.S. Senate — Senate roll call: Motion to proceed to S.J.Res.89 (Nov 19, 2025)[19]WV MetroNews — WV MetroNews: Sen. Jim Justice committee assignments and energy…
• Potential Democratic crossovers: Recent environmental CRAs (e.g., 2023 WOTUS) drew a handful of Democratic votes, but on this motion Democrats (and both Independents in their caucus) voted No across the board; expect largely unified Democratic opposition today. [20]Associated Press — AP: House GOP votes to overturn Biden water rule; CRA contex…[3]U.S. Senate — Senate roll call: Motion to proceed to S.J.Res.89 (Nov 19, 2025)
• House posture: GOP leadership ran H.J.Res.130 under a closed rule and held the conference together for a razor‑thin win, indicating strong leadership pressure to deliver the Senate vote as well. [5]House Rules Committee — House Rules Committee: H.J.Res.130 rule (H.Res. 879)[1]U.S. House of Representatives — Office of the Clerk: Roll Call 294 (Nov 18, 202…

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

• Senate majority control: Republicans (53) set the agenda; CRA guarantees floor access without a 60‑vote threshold. Thune’s office has the space to run a clean floor, with time‑limited debate. [2]U.S. Senate — Senate.gov: Party Division — 119th Congress (Republicans 53)[9]CRS (Congress.gov) — CRS R43992: Congressional Review Act — Frequently Asked Qu…
• Calendar control: The Senate has already queued final passage for today at ~1:45 pm, minimizing drift and limiting amendment risks (none permitted under CRA). [4]Senate Democratic Caucus — Senate Democratic Caucus: Floor schedule (Nov 20, 20…[10]CRS (Congress.gov) — CRS IF10023: The Congressional Review Act — brief overview…
• Committee context: While the subject matter touches Energy/ENR and EPW, CRA allows bypassing committee bottlenecks; separately, EPW Chair Capito and ENR‑aligned Republicans have consistently opposed the BLM’s PRB no‑leasing approach. [21]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW Committee majority page: Capito to serve as EPW…[16]Senate Energy & Natural Resources (Republican) site — Wyoming delegation letter…
• Executive alignment: With a Republican president, signature is expected upon Senate passage, making the disapproval effective and blocking a substantially similar future BLM rule. [22]Wikipedia — 119th U.S. Congress overview (GOP unified control incl. presidency)[9]CRS (Congress.gov) — CRS R43992: Congressional Review Act — Frequently Asked Qu…

Assessment: likelihood of passage

Bottom line: Senate passage today is highly likely; enactment into law is likely upon presentment.

• Likelihood of Senate passage: High. Indicators: GOP majority (53), successful motion to proceed (51–47), key moderates voting Yea, and a locked‑in vote time today. [2]U.S. Senate — Senate.gov: Party Division — 119th Congress (Republicans 53)[3]U.S. Senate — Senate roll call: Motion to proceed to S.J.Res.89 (Nov 19, 2025)[4]Senate Democratic Caucus — Senate Democratic Caucus: Floor schedule (Nov 20, 20…
• Likelihood of enactment: High. Unified Republican control and longstanding GOP opposition to the RMPA make a presidential signature the default outcome. [16]Senate Energy & Natural Resources (Republican) site — Wyoming delegation letter…[22]Wikipedia — 119th U.S. Congress overview (GOP unified control incl. presidency)
• Policy effect if enacted: BLM’s 2024 Buffalo ROD (no new federal coal leasing) would be nullified; the agency would be barred from issuing a “substantially similar” no‑leasing rule without new congressional authorization, reverting to pre‑amendment posture. [6]Federal Register — Federal Register: Notice of Availability — Buffalo Field Off…[9]CRS (Congress.gov) — CRS R43992: Congressional Review Act — Frequently Asked Qu…

Source notes (selected)

• House action and vote: Clerk roll call; Rules Committee rule text. [1]U.S. House of Representatives — Office of the Clerk: Roll Call 294 (Nov 18, 202…[5]House Rules Committee — House Rules Committee: H.J.Res.130 rule (H.Res. 879)
• Text/summary and Senate companion: Congress.gov pages for H.J.Res.130 and S.J.Res.89. [23]Web search · turn 2 #4[7]Library of Congress — Congress.gov: S.J.Res.89 summary (Buffalo Field Office CR…
• BLM action and GAO CRA determination: Federal Register notice (ROD signed Nov 20, 2024); Congressional Record printing of GAO opinion (B‑337503). [6]Federal Register — Federal Register: Notice of Availability — Buffalo Field Off…[8]Congress.gov — Congressional Record: GAO opinion letter printed (B-337503) — CR…
• Senate composition, schedule, and votes: Senate.gov party division; Senate Democratic Caucus schedule; Senate roll call (motion to proceed). [2]U.S. Senate — Senate.gov: Party Division — 119th Congress (Republicans 53)[4]Senate Democratic Caucus — Senate Democratic Caucus: Floor schedule (Nov 20, 20…[3]U.S. Senate — Senate roll call: Motion to proceed to S.J.Res.89 (Nov 19, 2025)
• Stakeholder positions: National Mining Association; Wyoming Governor statements; conservation coalition statements; Reuters background on PRB leasing proposal. [11]National Mining Association — National Mining Association statement opposing PR…[12]Office of Gov. Mark Gordon — Wyoming Governor press release opposing BLM’s no‑l…[13]PRBRC — Powder River Basin Resource Council: Statement supporting end of PRB co…[14]Reuters — Reuters: Biden administration proposed ending new PRB coal leasing (c…
• Leadership roles: Thune sworn as Majority Leader; Barrasso as Majority Whip; EPW Chair Capito overview. [17]Office of Sen. John Thune — Sen. Thune press release: First remarks as Senate M…[18]Office of Sen. John Barrasso — Sen. Barrasso press release: Sworn in as Senate…[21]U.S. Senate EPW Committee — EPW Committee majority page: Capito to serve as EPW…