119-S-1135 DC Insider Prediction Analysis

Passage Probability

Bottom line: this is a low‑controversy feasibility‑study directive with full Utah delegation engagement and visible committee movement. I place passage odds at 70–80% by December 2026, with the median path being inclusion in a broader ENR lands package moving in 2026. [1]Congress.gov — S.1135 – Text page with Committee Meetings entry (Congress.gov)[4]Congress.gov — Committee Schedule 12/09/2025 — ENR National Parks Subcommittee…[5]Congress.gov — S.1547 (119th) — America the Beautiful Act (LRF reauthorization)

• Rationale: (1) Sponsor alignment with gatekeepers — Sen. John Curtis (R‑UT) is lead sponsor; ENR is chaired by his fellow Utahn, Sen. Mike Lee — and the bill already received a National Parks Subcommittee hearing on December 9, 2025. (2) Republicans control the White House, Senate, and House, easing bicameral coordination. (3) Study bills carry negligible cost and typically clear by UC or get bundled into larger lands vehicles. [1]Congress.gov — S.1135 – Text page with Committee Meetings entry (Congress.gov)[2]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources — Heinrich, Lee Announce…[4]Congress.gov — Committee Schedule 12/09/2025 — ENR National Parks Subcommittee…[3]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress (party control, leadership)[6]Congress.gov — H. Rept. 114-78 — Trails System Act study precedent (timeline/co…
• Companion measure exists (H.R. 3451, Rep. Mike Kennedy), increasing chances of bicameral packaging or House suspension passage. [7]Congress.gov — H.R.3451 (119th) — Bonneville Shoreline Trail feasibility study…
• Viable vehicle: the bipartisan “America the Beautiful Act” to reauthorize the Legacy Restoration Fund is being advanced by the National Parks Subcommittee leads and is a logical omnibus for small, noncontroversial park/trails bills. [5]Congress.gov — S.1547 (119th) — America the Beautiful Act (LRF reauthorization)[8]Office of Sen. Angus King — King, Daines press release on America the Beautiful…

Obstacles

• Time and packaging risk: If a 2026 public‑lands package drags or becomes a hostage to unrelated riders, small studies can slip. The most efficient route is add‑on to a bipartisan ENR package; standalone floor time is scarce. [9]Congress.gov — S.47 (116th) — Dingell Act: all actions (precedent for lands pac…
• Appropriations bandwidth: NPS study work competes with constrained operating funds; while costs are low, reduced OPS lines or staffing slow execution and can prompt holds for offsets. [10]Congress.gov — S. Rept. 119-46 — Interior/Environment Appropriations FY2026 (NP…
• House process congestion: Even with a friendly posture from Natural Resources Chair Bruce Westerman, crowded calendars and intra‑conference disputes can delay otherwise easy items; Federal Lands Subcommittee sequencing matters. [11]Wikipedia — House Committee on Natural Resources — membership (119th)[12]Wikipedia — House Federal Lands Subcommittee — membership (119th)

Short‑Term Consequences (next 3–9 months)

• Senate side: Post‑hearing, expect staff to solicit agency feedback and queue the bill for inclusion in a Chairman’s mark or managers’ package; ENR chair control (Lee) plus state‑delegation unity lowers friction. [4]Congress.gov — Committee Schedule 12/09/2025 — ENR National Parks Subcommittee…[2]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources — Heinrich, Lee Announce…
• House side: Companion (H.R. 3451) awaits action in Natural Resources; most probable path is a Federal Lands Subcommittee markup feeding a larger committee package or eventual suspension. [7]Congress.gov — H.R.3451 (119th) — Bonneville Shoreline Trail feasibility study…[12]Wikipedia — House Federal Lands Subcommittee — membership (119th)
• If attached to the America the Beautiful Act or a similar lands bundle, timing likely clusters around mid‑2026 as subcommittee leaders target the semiquincentennial window. [8]Office of Sen. Angus King — King, Daines press release on America the Beautiful…

Long‑Term Consequences (if enacted)

• Policy effect: Directs Interior/NPS to conduct a feasibility study on the Bonneville Shoreline Trail and report to Congress; it does not itself designate the trail. Statute targets completion within three complete fiscal years after authorization. [13]Web search · turn 7 #1[14]LII / Cornell Law — 16 U.S.C. §1244 — National scenic and national historic tra…
• Administrative load: Study costs are modest and historically non‑controversial, but execution depends on NPS staffing and appropriations. [6]Congress.gov — H. Rept. 114-78 — Trails System Act study precedent (timeline/co…[10]Congress.gov — S. Rept. 119-46 — Interior/Environment Appropriations FY2026 (NP…
• Strategic positioning: A favorable study can tee up a later designation bill; outdoor recreation participation and broad public‑lands popularity sustain political upside for Utah’s delegation across cycles. [15]Outdoor Industry Association — Outdoor Industry Association — 2024 Outdoor Part…[16]Trust for Public Land — Trust for Public Land — 2025 national polling on public…

Forecast

Most probable and secondary scenarios, ranked by likelihood.

1. Most probable (≈60%): ENR/NR managers’ package in 2026 incorporates S.1135/H.R.3451; Senate clears by UC, House by suspension, signed this Congress. Drivers: chair/ranking alignment on lands package; low score/cost; bicameral companion. [2]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources — Heinrich, Lee Announce…[4]Congress.gov — Committee Schedule 12/09/2025 — ENR National Parks Subcommittee…[7]Congress.gov — H.R.3451 (119th) — Bonneville Shoreline Trail feasibility study…
2. Secondary (≈15–20%): Standalone Senate UC passage in 2026, then House suspension — used if package size is trimmed late. [9]Congress.gov — S.47 (116th) — Dingell Act: all actions (precedent for lands pac…
3. Lower‑probability (≈10–15%): Slips into lame duck or dies on the calendar if larger lands package stalls amid unrelated controversies or floor time constraints. [9]Congress.gov — S.47 (116th) — Dingell Act: all actions (precedent for lands pac…

Control of institutions (119th)

GOP White House, GOP Senate majority, GOP House majority — facilitates Utah‑led public‑lands items when confined to studies. [3]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress (party control, leadership)

Gatekeepers

Senate ENR Chair Mike Lee; National Parks Subcommittee leads Steve Daines/Angus King. Hearing held Dec 9, 2025. [2]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources — Heinrich, Lee Announce…[17]Web search · turn 7 #2[4]Congress.gov — Committee Schedule 12/09/2025 — ENR National Parks Subcommittee…

Sourcing

Core references used to ground institutional control, committee posture, bill status, hearing activity, statutory timelines, and likely vehicles.

• Bill text/status: S.1135 (Curtis/Lee) and committee meeting entry; H.R.3451 companion. [13]Web search · turn 7 #1[1]Congress.gov — S.1135 – Text page with Committee Meetings entry (Congress.gov)[7]Congress.gov — H.R.3451 (119th) — Bonneville Shoreline Trail feasibility study…
• Committee leadership and structure: ENR Chair/Ranking; National Parks Subcommittee activity. [2]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources — Heinrich, Lee Announce…[17]Web search · turn 7 #2
• Chamber control: 119th Congress partisan control and leadership. [3]Wikipedia — 119th United States Congress (party control, leadership)
• Precedent for bundling: Dingell Act actions record. [9]Congress.gov — S.47 (116th) — Dingell Act: all actions (precedent for lands pac…
• Statutory process/timeline for trail studies: 16 U.S.C. § 1244 and House/Senate reports on prior trail‑study bills (cost/timeline). [14]LII / Cornell Law — 16 U.S.C. §1244 — National scenic and national historic tra…[6]Congress.gov — H. Rept. 114-78 — Trails System Act study precedent (timeline/co…
• House process posture: Natural Resources chair and Federal Lands Subcommittee roster. [11]Wikipedia — House Committee on Natural Resources — membership (119th)[12]Wikipedia — House Federal Lands Subcommittee — membership (119th)
• Potential vehicle landscape: America the Beautiful Act text and sponsors’ stated goals/timing. [5]Congress.gov — S.1547 (119th) — America the Beautiful Act (LRF reauthorization)[8]Office of Sen. Angus King — King, Daines press release on America the Beautiful…
• Public sentiment/participation context: OIA participation trends; TPL national polling on public lands. [15]Outdoor Industry Association — Outdoor Industry Association — 2024 Outdoor Part…[16]Trust for Public Land — Trust for Public Land — 2025 national polling on public…