119-SJRES-91 Data-Driven Journalist Impact Analysis

Summary

- The resolution uses the Congressional Review Act (CRA) to disapprove BLM’s Dec. 2024 Coastal Plain Oil and Gas Leasing Program ROD. GAO determined that the ROD is a CRA‑covered rule. If disapproved, the rule would be treated as though it never took effect, and BLM would be barred from issuing a “substantially the same” rule absent new law. [6]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO Legal Decision B-337330: CRA applic…[3]Congressional Research Service (via Congress.gov) — The Congressional Review Ac…

- The 2024 ROD (Alternative D2) closed roughly 1.2 million acres to leasing and offered the statutory minimum 400,000 acres under tight stipulations; the resolution would nullify that approach and could have the practical effect of restoring the broader 2020 ROD, subject to legal specifics. [2]Congress.gov — S.J.Res.91 — 119th Congress: Overview and CRS summary

- Market response to Coastal Plain leasing has been weak: the January 2025 sale drew no bids; the first sale in 2021 raised $14.4 million, mostly from a state entity. Thus, short‑run economic effects are likely modest; long‑run outcomes depend on resource size (USGS mean 7.7 BBO) and price/technology. [4]U.S. Department of the Interior — Arctic Refuge Lease Sale Yields No Interest (…[7]U.S. Bureau of Land Management — BLM: First ANWR Coastal Plain Oil and Gas Leas…[5]U.S. Geological Survey — USGS Fact Sheet: Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, 1002…

Key metrics

Economic Effects

Signal vs. noise: near‑term activity depends more on bidder interest and legal certainty than on geology; long‑run effects hinge on recoverable volumes and prices.

• Leasing scope and terms: The 2024 ROD adopted Alternative D2, making ~1.2 million acres unavailable for leasing and offering the minimum 400,000 acres with extensive stipulations. Disapproval would remove that framework and, by undoing a replacement rule, could allow the 2020 ROD—which opened essentially the entire program area—to govern again, depending on legal specifics. [2]Congress.gov — S.J.Res.91 — 119th Congress: Overview and CRS summary[8]Web search · turn 2 #0
• Bidder interest: The January 2025 congressionally mandated sale received no bids; by contrast, the January 2021 sale generated $14.4 million in high bids, largely from Alaska’s state development corporation rather than major oil companies—suggesting muted private‑sector appetite to date. [4]U.S. Department of the Interior — Arctic Refuge Lease Sale Yields No Interest (…[7]U.S. Bureau of Land Management — BLM: First ANWR Coastal Plain Oil and Gas Leas…
• Revenue sharing: Statute provides a 50/50 federal–Alaska split for ANWR program receipts (bonuses, rents, royalties), with subsequent law shifting Alaska’s share to 70% beginning in FY2034; higher leasing activity could elevate state receipts if commercial discoveries occur. [1]Congressional Research Service (via Congress.gov) — CRS: Arctic National Wildli…
• Production potential: USGS estimates a mean 7.7 BBO technically recoverable on federal lands of the Coastal Plain; EIA scenario modeling (based on those geology assumptions) shows potential peak output ranging from ~0.51 to 1.45 million bpd, but with small modeled effects on global oil prices and U.S. gasoline prices. [5]U.S. Geological Survey — USGS Fact Sheet: Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, 1002…[9]U.S. Energy Information Administration — EIA: Analysis of Crude Oil Production…
• Macroe/market context: CRS identifies deterrents to investment—including distance from infrastructure, Arctic costs, limited modern data, and litigation risk—factors that help explain weak lease participation and that could persist even if more acreage is offered. [1]Congressional Research Service (via Congress.gov) — CRS: Arctic National Wildli…

Social Effects

• Alaska employment and local contracting: Supporters argue leasing can create North Slope jobs and business opportunities; CRS notes these asserted benefits for Alaska Native and other communities, though magnitudes depend on actual development. [1]Congressional Research Service (via Congress.gov) — CRS: Arctic National Wildli…
• Subsistence and culture: The Coastal Plain is the calving and early‑summer nursery area for the Porcupine Caribou Herd; both Gwich’in and Iñupiat cultures rely on caribou and other wildlife for subsistence and cultural continuity, making disturbance risks salient. [10]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — FWS: Arctic National Wildlife Refuge — Species[11]Web search · turn 9 #7
• Community views are not monolithic: Some North Slope Iñupiat entities have supported development for economic reasons, while Gwich’in organizations have opposed it given the calving‑ground significance; policy outcomes are likely to produce distributional winners and losers across communities. [1]Congressional Research Service (via Congress.gov) — CRS: Arctic National Wildli…

Environmental Effects

Key pathways: habitat disturbance/fragmentation; species‑specific risks; and life‑cycle greenhouse gas emissions.

• Caribou: Calving and early post‑calving use of the Coastal Plain concentrates mothers and calves during a vulnerable window; disturbance can affect calf survival and herd movements, with implications for subsistence access. [10]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — FWS: Arctic National Wildlife Refuge — Species
• Polar bears: The Coastal Plain contains maternal denning habitats for Southern Beaufort Sea polar bears; winter seismic and other activities risk den disturbance unless carefully planned (e.g., detection surveys and timing/spacing rules). [12]U.S. Geological Survey — USGS: Polar bear maternal den habitat in ANWR[13]U.S. Geological Survey — USGS: Seismic survey design and impacts to maternal po…
• Footprint constraint: Regardless of the ROD in force, statute limits production and support facilities on federal lands in the program area to 2,000 surface acres, partially mitigating but not eliminating habitat fragmentation through linear infrastructure. [1]Congressional Research Service (via Congress.gov) — CRS: Arctic National Wildli…
• GHG emissions: Expanded federal onshore leasing generally increases global CO2e emissions in central estimates, though the magnitude is relatively small compared with global totals; territorial U.S. increases are a subset of the global effect. Project‑specific emissions would depend on scale and operating practices. [14]Resources for the Future — Resources for the Future issue brief: Emissions impa…

Temporal Analysis

• Immediate (enactment–12 months): The 2024 ROD would be void; BLM could not reissue a substantially similar decision without new statutory authority. If prior decisions (e.g., the 2020 ROD) remain legally operative, leasing plans could pivot back to broader acreage and fewer stipulations. [3]Congressional Research Service (via Congress.gov) — The Congressional Review Ac…[8]Web search · turn 2 #0
• Near term (1–3 years): Leasing outcomes hinge on bidder interest and legal stability. CRS reports the January 2025 no‑bid sale and cites persistent deterrents (infrastructure distance, costs, litigation), suggesting muted activity even under expanded acreage. [1]Congressional Research Service (via Congress.gov) — CRS: Arctic National Wildli…
• Long term (5–15+ years): Should commercially viable fields be discovered, development timelines are multi‑year; EIA scenarios show peaks roughly a decade after initial development under assumed conditions, with macro price effects modeled as small. [9]U.S. Energy Information Administration — EIA: Analysis of Crude Oil Production…

Unintended Consequences

• CRA path dependency: Disapproval would bar BLM from issuing a “substantially the same” ROD, reducing flexibility to iterate protections or adaptive management via a similar program‑level decision without new legislation. Agencies and courts have limited guidance on what counts as “substantially the same,” creating legal uncertainty. [3]Congressional Research Service (via Congress.gov) — The Congressional Review Ac…
• Regulatory whiplash risk: Frequent shifts among EIS/ROD baselines (2019/2020 vs. 2024) elevate litigation and investment risk, which CRS notes as a factor suppressing bidder interest; this could continue regardless of the direction of change. [1]Congressional Research Service (via Congress.gov) — CRS: Arctic National Wildli…
• Social distributional effects: Benefits (jobs, revenue) and burdens (subsistence impacts, localized disturbance) will be uneven across communities; absent targeted mitigation and revenue‑sharing at the village level, disparities can widen. [1]Congressional Research Service (via Congress.gov) — CRS: Arctic National Wildli…

Assessment (Analytical Stance)

Neutral

- On balance, the resolution increases policy certainty for those favoring broader leasing but introduces CRA‑specific rigidity that can impede future course corrections. Given current market signals (no bids in 2025; limited 2021 participation), immediate economic gains appear limited, while social and environmental risks remain material but variably mitigable (e.g., 2,000‑acre cap, den‑avoidance protocols). Net impact is uncertain and highly contingent on future bids, court outcomes, and prices—yielding a neutral overall assessment. [4]U.S. Department of the Interior — Arctic Refuge Lease Sale Yields No Interest (…[7]U.S. Bureau of Land Management — BLM: First ANWR Coastal Plain Oil and Gas Leas…[1]Congressional Research Service (via Congress.gov) — CRS: Arctic National Wildli…

Sourcing

Primary sources and methods emphasized statutory text, agency records, CRS/GAO analyses, and federal science. Key references:

• GAO legal decision confirming the 2024 ROD is a CRA‑covered rule. [6]U.S. Government Accountability Office — GAO Legal Decision B-337330: CRA applic…
• Congress.gov bill summary for S.J.Res. 91 (details of what the 2024 ROD changed relative to 2020). [2]Congress.gov — S.J.Res.91 — 119th Congress: Overview and CRS summary
• CRS on CRA mechanics and effects, including the “substantially the same” bar and potential reinstatement effects. [3]Congressional Research Service (via Congress.gov) — The Congressional Review Ac…
• CRS on ANWR program status, 2024 ROD content, lease outcomes, revenue sharing, and statutory footprint limit. [1]Congressional Research Service (via Congress.gov) — CRS: Arctic National Wildli…
• USGS resource estimates for the Coastal Plain (mean 7.7 BBO). [5]U.S. Geological Survey — USGS Fact Sheet: Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, 1002…
• EIA ANWR scenario modeling of production and price effects. [9]U.S. Energy Information Administration — EIA: Analysis of Crude Oil Production…
• BLM/DOI records of 2021 sale results and 2025 no‑bid sale. [7]U.S. Bureau of Land Management — BLM: First ANWR Coastal Plain Oil and Gas Leas…[4]U.S. Department of the Interior — Arctic Refuge Lease Sale Yields No Interest (…
• FWS/USGS on caribou calving use of the Coastal Plain and polar bear denning risks/mitigations. [10]U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service — FWS: Arctic National Wildlife Refuge — Species[12]U.S. Geological Survey — USGS: Polar bear maternal den habitat in ANWR[13]U.S. Geological Survey — USGS: Seismic survey design and impacts to maternal po…
• RFF estimate of emissions impacts from expanded federal onshore leasing (context for life‑cycle GHG). [14]Resources for the Future — Resources for the Future issue brief: Emissions impa…