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119-HR-5371 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

119 · HR 5371 Continuing Appropriations, Agriculture, Legislative Branch, Military Construction and Veterans Affairs, and Extensions Act, 2026

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Continuing Appropriations, Agriculture, Legislative Branch, Military Construction and Veterans Affairs, and Extensions Act, 2026This act ends the government shutdown that began on October 1, 2025, by...

H.R. 5371 cleared the House 217–212 largely along party lines, but it has repeatedly failed in the Senate where a 60‑vote threshold applies. With Republicans holding a 53–47 Senate majority, GOP unity plus three crossovers (Cortez Masto, Fetterman and King) produced 55 yeas on Sept. 30—still five short—and cloture attempts since then continue to fall short. Democratic leaders are conditioning additional votes on including ACA subsidy/health provisions; GOP leaders are pressing a "clean" CR. As written, H.R. 5371’s path is low‑probability; a revised Senate substitute that bakes in limited health policy concessions has a moderate path, driven by leadership leverage to end the ongoing shutdown. [1]Library of Congress — Congress.gov — H.R. 5371 overview (status, votes, latest…[2]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 535 (9/30/2025): Passage of H.R. 5371…[3]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 576 (10/20/2025): Cloture on motion to…[4]South Dakota Public Broadcasting — SDPB — Thune officially Senate Majority Lead…[5]Associated Press — AP — Schumer warns of shutdown absent health care demands (S…

Analyzed as
DC Insider
Published
21 Oct 2025
Updated
21 Oct 2025
Tags
whip-count · appropriations · CR
Unvetted
01 · Section

Breakdown: expected support and opposition

Bottom line: the votes are there in the House; the Senate is the choke point until Democrats get health policy concessions. [1]Library of Congress — Congress.gov — H.R. 5371 overview (status, votes, latest…[2]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 535 (9/30/2025): Passage of H.R. 5371…

  • House: Passed 217–212 on Sept. 19. GOP broke 216–2 in favor; Democrats 210–1 against. Expect a similar partisan split if the bill returns unchanged. [1]Library of Congress — Congress.gov — H.R. 5371 overview (status, votes, latest…[6]House Republican Cloakroom — Republican Cloakroom — House roll details for 9/19…
  • Senate: Republicans (53 seats) are broadly unified; Rand Paul is the consistent GOP no. Democrats are overwhelmingly opposed absent health add‑ons; only Cortez Masto (NV) and Fetterman (PA), plus Independent Angus King (ME), have voted yes to date. Net result on Sept. 30 was 55–45—five short of the 60 needed. Subsequent cloture tries (most recently 50–43 on Oct. 20) confirm the blockade. [4]South Dakota Public Broadcasting — SDPB — Thune officially Senate Majority Lead…[2]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 535 (9/30/2025): Passage of H.R. 5371…[3]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 576 (10/20/2025): Cloture on motion to…
  • Issue drivers: Democrats are conditioning votes on extending ACA subsidies/related health items; Republicans label H.R. 5371 a clean CR with targeted extenders and security money. [7]Washington Post — Washington Post — GOP proposes Nov. 21 CR; Democrats cite ACA…[8]House Appropriations Committee (GOP) — House Appropriations — House passes H.R.…
House passage (9/19)
217yea (212 nay)
Senate vote (9/19)
44yea (48 nay, 60 needed)
Senate vote (9/30)
55yea (45 nay, 60 needed)
Latest cloture try (10/20)
50yea (43 nay, 7 NV)
Senate GOP majority
53R seats (of 100)
02 · Section

Key legislators (swing and leverage)

Who can move and why.

  • Sen. John Fetterman (D‑PA): Voted yes on the CR; a reliable crossover so far. If leadership adds modest health language he likely stays yes. [2]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 535 (9/30/2025): Passage of H.R. 5371…[9]Anadolu Agency — Anadolu Agency — Senate blocks House CR on 9/19; notes Fetterm…
  • Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D‑NV): Broke with most Democrats to vote yes on Sept. 30; watch whether she remains a yes without visible ACA action. [2]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 535 (9/30/2025): Passage of H.R. 5371…
  • Sen. Angus King (I‑ME): Voted yes on Sept. 30; often a bridge in shutdown standoffs. [2]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 535 (9/30/2025): Passage of H.R. 5371…
  • Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R‑AK): Initially voted no on 9/19 but moved to yes on 9/30; she could be a messenger for a narrow bipartisan tweak. [10]Web search · turn 12 #5[2]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 535 (9/30/2025): Passage of H.R. 5371…
  • Sen. Rand Paul (R‑KY): Consistent GOP no; assume continued opposition to any short‑term deal framed as “clean.” [2]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 535 (9/30/2025): Passage of H.R. 5371…
  • Sen. Susan Collins (R‑ME), Appropriations Chair: Publicly focused on moving regular appropriations and has opposed stretching a long CR; her preference shapes GOP negotiating space. [11]U.S. Senate (Collins) — Sen. Collins press release — becomes Chair of Senate Ap…[12]Politico — Politico — GOP weighs longer CR; Collins resists extended stopgap (O…
  • House side: Speaker Mike Johnson has the votes to pass a similar House vehicle again; prior defections were minimal. Appropriations Chair Tom Cole is the floor general and messaging point for a “clean” CR. [13]News result · turn 1 #13[8]House Appropriations Committee (GOP) — House Appropriations — House passes H.R.…
03 · Section

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

Where the leverage sits and how it will be used.

  • Senate: Majority Leader John Thune controls floor timing and has kept the bill alive via repeated motions and reconsideration (note his tactical ‘no’ on cloture to preserve that right). But with the 60‑vote filibuster intact, he needs more Democratic yeses or policy concessions. [14]Library of Congress — Congress.gov — H.R. 5371 All Actions (multiple cloture fi…[3]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 576 (10/20/2025): Cloture on motion to…
  • Senate Democrats: Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is holding his caucus largely together around ACA subsidy/health asks; without movement there, expect continued unified opposition. [5]Associated Press — AP — Schumer warns of shutdown absent health care demands (S…
  • Appropriations: Sen. Collins and Rep. Cole are aligned on finishing FY26 bills and resisting an extended CR; any bipartisan deal likely routes through their shops as a narrow strike‑and‑insert on H.R. 5371. [11]U.S. Senate (Collins) — Sen. Collins press release — becomes Chair of Senate Ap…[15]House Appropriations Committee (GOP) — House Appropriations — Cole moves FY26 b…
  • House posture: Johnson will move whatever the Senate can pass, but he’s been content to keep the House dark while the Senate absorbs political heat; that limits Dem leverage across the rotunda. [16]National Community Pharmacists Association — NCPA — Shutdown standoff; House in…
04 · Section

Assessment: likelihood of passage

Read on probability and what changes the math.

  • H.R. 5371 as written: Low likelihood. The Senate has now rejected passage (44–48 on 9/19; 55–45 on 9/30) and failed multiple cloture attempts, with Democrats conditioning any additional crossover votes on ACA/health pieces. [18]Web search · turn 12 #4[2]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 535 (9/30/2025): Passage of H.R. 5371…[5]Associated Press — AP — Schumer warns of shutdown absent health care demands (S…
  • Revised Senate substitute (adds time‑limited ACA subsidy extension and locks in key health extenders already in the bill, e.g., DSH delay, telehealth, hospital‑at‑home): Moderate likelihood. That framework aligns with interest‑group pressure (AHA/AMA/SHM) and could net the 5–7 Democratic votes needed. [19]American Hospital Association — AHA coalition letter — urge Congress to prevent…[20]American Medical Association — AMA — Advocacy update: shutdown impact on telehe…[21]Society of Hospital Medicine — Society of Hospital Medicine — multisector lette…
  • Timing: Pressure is peaking as the shutdown enters its fourth week; White House messaging is signaling openness to a quick resolution. If a deal materializes, expect a Senate strike‑and‑insert on H.R. 5371 with rapid House acceptance. Confidence: moderate. [22]Reuters — Reuters — White House economist: shutdown likely to end this week (Oc…
05 · Section

Notable positions from outside stakeholders (reported)

Signals shaping marginal votes.

  • Hospitals: AHA-led coalition urging prevention of Medicaid DSH cuts; aligns with Section 401 of H.R. 5371 delaying DSH reductions. [19]American Hospital Association — AHA coalition letter — urge Congress to prevent…
  • Physicians/health systems: AMA notes lapses in telehealth and other extenders during the shutdown—fuel for a healthcare sweetener in a final deal. [20]American Medical Association — AMA — Advocacy update: shutdown impact on telehe…
  • Hospital at Home coalition: Multistakeholder letter pressing for a multi‑year extension—some of which appears in H.R. 5371’s short extender window; could be lengthened to win Democratic votes. [21]Society of Hospital Medicine — Society of Hospital Medicine — multisector lette…
  • Housing/economic stakeholders: NAHB backing the CR because it averts an NFIP lapse—support Republicans cite in framing the bill as "clean." [23]whitehouse.gov — White House article quoting NAHB support for CR/NFIP extension…
Sources cited
  1. [1] Congress.gov — H.R. 5371 overview (status, votes, latest action) Library of Congress
  2. [2] U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 535 (9/30/2025): Passage of H.R. 5371 (55–45, 60 needed) — names listed U.S. Senate
  3. [3] U.S. Senate Roll Call Vote 576 (10/20/2025): Cloture on motion to proceed to H.R. 5371 (50–43–7) U.S. Senate
  4. [4] SDPB — Thune officially Senate Majority Leader; Republicans hold 53‑seat majority (Jan. 3, 2025) South Dakota Public Broadcasting
  5. [5] AP — Schumer warns of shutdown absent health care demands (Sept. 2025) Associated Press
  6. [6] Republican Cloakroom — House roll details for 9/19/2025 (H.R. 5371: 216 R yea, 2 R nay; 1 D yea, 210 D nay) House Republican Cloakroom
  7. [7] Washington Post — GOP proposes Nov. 21 CR; Democrats cite ACA subsidy demands Washington Post
  8. [8] House Appropriations — House passes H.R. 5371 (217–212) & GOP messaging House Appropriations Committee (GOP)
  9. [9] Anadolu Agency — Senate blocks House CR on 9/19; notes Fetterman yes, Murkowski & Paul no Anadolu Agency
  10. [10] Web search · turn 12 #5
  11. [11] Sen. Collins press release — becomes Chair of Senate Appropriations (Jan. 7, 2025) U.S. Senate (Collins)
  12. [12] Politico — GOP weighs longer CR; Collins resists extended stopgap (Oct. 20, 2025) Politico
  13. [13] News result · turn 1 #13
  14. [14] Congress.gov — H.R. 5371 All Actions (multiple cloture filings; reconsideration) Library of Congress
  15. [15] House Appropriations — Cole moves FY26 bills to conference (Sept. 10, 2025) House Appropriations Committee (GOP)
  16. [16] NCPA — Shutdown standoff; House in recess while Senate reconsiders H.R. 5371 (Sept. 22, 2025) National Community Pharmacists Association
  17. [17] AP — NNSA furloughs during shutdown (Oct. 21, 2025) Associated Press
  18. [18] Web search · turn 12 #4
  19. [19] AHA coalition letter — urge Congress to prevent Medicaid DSH cuts (Sept. 5, 2025) American Hospital Association
  20. [20] AMA — Advocacy update: shutdown impact on telehealth and other extenders (Oct. 3, 2025) American Medical Association
  21. [21] Society of Hospital Medicine — multisector letter to extend Hospital at Home (Sept. 3, 2025) Society of Hospital Medicine
  22. [22] Reuters — White House economist: shutdown likely to end this week (Oct. 20, 2025) Reuters
  23. [23] White House article quoting NAHB support for CR/NFIP extension (Sept. 2025) whitehouse.gov

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