119-SJRES-80 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

Breakdown: expected support/opposition by party and caucus

Context: S.J.Res.80 disapproves BLM’s 2022 NPR-A Integrated Activity Plan Record of Decision; the Senate passed it 52–45 on Oct. 30, 2025, and messaged it to the House, where it is held at the desk. [1]Senate Democratic Caucus — Wrap Up for Thursday, October 30, 2025[2]Library of Congress — S.J.Res.80 — Congress.gov bill page (actions and status)

• Senate outcome: Passed 52–45. Signal: at least a small number of Democrats/Independents crossed, given a 53–47 GOP chamber. [1]Senate Democratic Caucus — Wrap Up for Thursday, October 30, 2025[6]U.S. Senate — Senate Party Division, 119th Congress (official)
• House landscape: The Clerk currently shows 219 Republicans, 213 Democrats, 3 vacancies — a thin GOP margin but enough to carry a privileged CRA vehicle with minimal defections. [3]Office of the Clerk, U.S. House — House Clerk roll call page (party counts show…
• House party-line expectation: GOP leadership supports the broader energy/CRA push this Congress; recent House CRA votes on environmental/energy rules typically passed with near-unanimous Republicans plus 6–13 Democratic crossovers (e.g., 231–191 with 13 Dem yeas; 222–203 with 7 Dem yeas). Expect a similar pattern here. [4]Office of the Clerk, U.S. House — House Roll Call RC111 (Apr 30, 2025) — CRA EP…[7]Web search · turn 13 #4
• Caucus dynamics: Republicans likely >95% in favor given alignment with the Trump energy agenda and prior CRA posture; Democrats largely opposed but with a small group from energy-producing or swing districts prone to occasional crossovers. [5]Congress.gov — Congressional Record S7798–S7801 (Oct 29, 2025) — includes SAP f…[4]Office of the Clerk, U.S. House — House Roll Call RC111 (Apr 30, 2025) — CRA EP…
• Institutional status: The Senate used expedited CRA process (committee discharge by petition on Oct. 28 and simple-majority floor), and the House received the Senate-passed vehicle, which is now held at the desk and available for floor action. [2]Library of Congress — S.J.Res.80 — Congress.gov bill page (actions and status)

Key legislators and probable swing votes

Focus on members whose records, districts, or caucus roles suggest non‑uniform voting behavior on energy/CRA items.

• Republicans to watch for possible No/absent: Brian Fitzpatrick (PA‑01) — moderate profile, environmental caucus roles (Delaware River Watershed Caucus co-chair; MARKET CHOICE Act). If GOP whips are secure elsewhere, leadership can afford one or two such defections. [11]Rep. Fitzpatrick (PA-01) — Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick — Delaware River Watershed Ca…[12]Rep. Fitzpatrick (PA-01) — Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick — MARKET CHOICE Act press rel…
• Democrats likeliest to cross: Henry Cuellar (TX‑28) — frequent breaks with party and centrist brand; Vicente Gonzalez (TX‑34) — public pro‑energy posture and bipartisan energy bill work. [13]Texas Tribune — Texas Tribune — Texas Democrats consider sanctioning Cuellar fo…[14]Texas Tribune — Texas Tribune — Vote to condemn Cuellar dropped[15]Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (TX-34) — Rep. Vicente Gonzalez — energy revenues, pro‑pr…
• Alaska delegation influence: Alaska’s federal/state actors have opposed the 2024 NPR‑A protections and pushed to unwind them; while Alaska’s lone House seat is now Republican, that pressure shapes broader caucus messaging and provides political cover for crossover votes. [16]Reuters — Reuters — Alaska sues to challenge 2024 NPR‑A rule[17]Web search · turn 15 #2

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

Leadership and executive alignment are decisive under CRA; timing and vehicle control are straightforward.

• White House: OMB issued a Statement of Administration Policy explicitly supporting S.J.Res.80; the President previously ordered agencies to revisit/rescind NPR‑A restrictions (E.O. 14153). Signature is assured. [5]Congress.gov — Congressional Record S7798–S7801 (Oct 29, 2025) — includes SAP f…[18]White House — Executive Order — Unleashing Alaska’s Extraordinary Resource Pote…
• Senate: Majority Leader John Thune (R‑SD) controls the floor and has prioritized regulatory rollbacks; Senate already disposed of this vehicle. [8]Sen. John Thune — Thune press release — First remarks as Senate Majority Leader
• House: Speaker Mike Johnson (R‑LA) narrowly holds the gavel; Majority Leader Steve Scalise manages the floor and calendar. A special rule from Rules is the likeliest path to call up the Senate‑passed vehicle. [9]AP — AP — Mike Johnson narrowly reelected Speaker (Jan 3, 2025)[10]Office of the Majority Leader — House Majority Leader site — About Steve Scalise
• Committees of jurisdiction: Senate ENR chaired by Mike Lee; House Natural Resources chaired by Bruce Westerman. Substantive jurisdiction supports leadership’s messaging but is procedurally secondary now that the Senate vehicle is held at the House desk. [19]Wikipedia — Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee (chair/ranking)[20]House Natural Resources Committee — House Natural Resources Committee — Chairma…
• House procedure under CRA: The House lacks initial fast‑track; it typically uses a special rule. When a disapproval resolution arrives from the other chamber, the receiving chamber can take up its own version for debate but must vote on the received measure (“automatic hookup”). The Senate‑passed S.J.Res.80 is currently “held at the desk,” ready for floor action. [21]CRS (via Congress.gov) — CRS R43992 — The Congressional Review Act: Frequently…[2]Library of Congress — S.J.Res.80 — Congress.gov bill page (actions and status)

• Interest‑group pressure: API and Alaska stakeholders favor reversal; national conservation groups oppose (e.g., Audubon backed the 2024 protections). Expect active lobbying on both sides targeting frontline Democrats and a few Northeast/Mid‑Atlantic Republicans. [22]American Petroleum Institute — API — Statement applauding move to repeal NPR‑A…[23]National Audubon Society — Audubon — Praising 2024 NPR‑A protections
• Substance context shaping votes: The Biden‑era NPR‑A protections (2024 rule) drew state litigation and are already under rescission proceedings by DOI; GAO also deemed the 2022 NPR‑A Record of Decision a “rule” for CRA purposes, enabling S.J.Res.80. [16]Reuters — Reuters — Alaska sues to challenge 2024 NPR‑A rule[24]BLM — BLM/DOI — Press release moving to rescind 2024 NPR‑A rule[25]U.S. GAO — GAO Legal Opinion B‑337234 — 2022 NPR‑A IAP ROD is a CRA rule

Assessment: likelihood of passage

Bottom line: High likelihood of House passage. Rationale: (1) unified GOP leadership plus a Senate‑cleared vehicle; (2) explicit SAP from the White House; (3) recent House CRA voting patterns show sufficient GOP votes with potential Democratic crossovers on energy items; and (4) straightforward floor path via a special rule to call up the Senate message held at the desk. Expected margin: low‑to‑mid 220s in favor, absent an intra‑GOP flare‑up. Post‑passage, the measure will be signed. CRA effect will bar a “substantially similar” NPR‑A plan absent a future statute. Confidence: high. [10]Office of the Majority Leader — House Majority Leader site — About Steve Scalise[5]Congress.gov — Congressional Record S7798–S7801 (Oct 29, 2025) — includes SAP f…[4]Office of the Clerk, U.S. House — House Roll Call RC111 (Apr 30, 2025) — CRA EP…[21]CRS (via Congress.gov) — CRS R43992 — The Congressional Review Act: Frequently…

Core sources for positions, procedure, and votes

Selected, load‑bearing references (official records and major outlets).

• Senate passage and House receipt/“held at the desk”: Congress.gov bill page and Senate Dem caucus wrap‑up. [2]Library of Congress — S.J.Res.80 — Congress.gov bill page (actions and status)[1]Senate Democratic Caucus — Wrap Up for Thursday, October 30, 2025
• CRA procedure in the House and cross‑chamber “hookup”: CRS FAQ (R43992). [21]CRS (via Congress.gov) — CRS R43992 — The Congressional Review Act: Frequently…
• White House stance and executive direction: OMB SAP in Congressional Record; E.O. 14153. [5]Congress.gov — Congressional Record S7798–S7801 (Oct 29, 2025) — includes SAP f…[18]White House — Executive Order — Unleashing Alaska’s Extraordinary Resource Pote…
• House vote patterns on 2025 energy/environment CRAs: Clerk roll calls showing Dem crossovers. [4]Office of the Clerk, U.S. House — House Roll Call RC111 (Apr 30, 2025) — CRA EP…[7]Web search · turn 13 #4
• Leadership/control of chambers: Thune (Senate GOP leader), Johnson Speaker, Scalise Majority Leader, Schumer Minority Leader. [8]Sen. John Thune — Thune press release — First remarks as Senate Majority Leader[9]AP — AP — Mike Johnson narrowly reelected Speaker (Jan 3, 2025)[10]Office of the Majority Leader — House Majority Leader site — About Steve Scalise
• Committee chairs of jurisdiction: Senate ENR (Mike Lee); House Natural Resources (Bruce Westerman). [19]Wikipedia — Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee (chair/ranking)[20]House Natural Resources Committee — House Natural Resources Committee — Chairma…
• Stakeholder pressure: API statement; conservation community support for 2024 NPR‑A protections (Audubon). [22]American Petroleum Institute — API — Statement applauding move to repeal NPR‑A…[23]National Audubon Society — Audubon — Praising 2024 NPR‑A protections
• GAO determination that the 2022 NPR‑A IAP ROD is a rule under CRA; Congressional Record printing. [25]U.S. GAO — GAO Legal Opinion B‑337234 — 2022 NPR‑A IAP ROD is a CRA rule[27]Congressional Record — Congressional Record S4768–S4770 — GAO opinion printed
• Alaska opposition to 2024 protections (state suit/coverage) and DOI rescission move under the current administration. [16]Reuters — Reuters — Alaska sues to challenge 2024 NPR‑A rule[24]BLM — BLM/DOI — Press release moving to rescind 2024 NPR‑A rule