119-HR-2804 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

Breakdown: vote math and coalition signals

Where the votes are today — and what the coalitions tell us about floor prospects.

• House: The Small Business Committee reported H.R. 2804 (as amended) 23–0 on May 20, 2026 — a clean bipartisan signal. [1]docs.house.gov — Committee vote record: H.R. 2804 (as amended) — 23–0 (May 20,…
• House substance: The committee adopted a Velázquez amendment in the nature of a substitute (ANS) clarifying that “covered contract” excludes task and delivery orders — a narrowing likely to keep skeptical Republicans and some moderates on board. [2]docs.house.gov — Amendment in the Nature of a Substitute to H.R. 2804 (Velázque…
• Senate: The bipartisan companion S. 2656 (Markey/Sullivan/Murkowski/Booker) preserves application to contracts, task orders, and delivery orders — broader than the House ANS — which will require reconciliation. [3]Congress.gov — S. 2656 (IS) — Protecting Small Business Competitions Act of 2025
• Public backing: Organized small‑business stakeholders (e.g., NVSBC; HUBZone Contractors National Council; others) have urged enactment and filed letters for the record at markup, reinforcing cross‑party comfort with the core policy. [4]docs.house.gov — NVSBC letter supporting H.R. 2804 (filed for markup record)
• Institutional context: Republicans hold both chambers; Speaker Mike Johnson controls the House floor and John Thune is Senate Majority Leader — reducing inter‑chamber friction but not eliminating it given the scope split. [5]Speaker.gov — Office of the Speaker — Mike Johnson press page (2026 archive)

Bottom line on coalition behavior: unanimous committee support plus visible stakeholder endorsements points to a broad House coalition under a low‑friction process (likely suspension). The Senate has bipartisan interest but will need a deal on the task‑order question. [1]docs.house.gov — Committee vote record: H.R. 2804 (as amended) — 23–0 (May 20,…

Key legislators and swing actors

Who has leverage over timing, scope, and final shape.

• House: Chair Roger Williams (R‑TX) steered the markup; Ranking Member Nydia Velázquez (D‑NY) is the sponsor and authored the adopted ANS — a functional bipartisan coalition at the committee level. [6]docs.house.gov — House Small Business Committee — Markup of Various Measures (M…
• House floor: Speaker Mike Johnson (R‑LA) determines whether this rides the suspension calendar (probable given 23–0) or a structured rule. [5]Speaker.gov — Office of the Speaker — Mike Johnson press page (2026 archive)
• Senate committee: Chair Joni Ernst (R‑IA) and Ranking Member Ed Markey (D‑MA) — with Murkowski and Sullivan as visible Republican partners — control whether the Senate moves the broader text out clean or aligns to the House compromise. [7]sbc.senate.gov
• Senate floor: Majority Leader John Thune (R‑SD) has procedural options (UC hotlining if uncontroversial; time agreement if holds surface). [8]U.S. Senate — Senate.gov — Majority and Minority Leaders (current Congress)

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

How the current power map shapes the path to passage.

With Republicans holding both chambers and the White House, leadership can advance consensus, non‑appropriations items when floor time opens. The House’s unanimous committee report positions H.R. 2804 for suspension (two‑thirds threshold) to avoid “gotcha” amendments; if a rule is chosen, expect a tight amendment tree to protect the negotiated ANS. The Senate path likely runs through Chair Ernst’s committee to set the chamber’s negotiating position on task‑order coverage before any UC attempt. [1]docs.house.gov — Committee vote record: H.R. 2804 (as amended) — 23–0 (May 20,…

Assessment: whip outlook and risks

Likelihood of passage and the main variables to watch.

• House passage: High. A 23–0 committee report plus stakeholder endorsements and no visible intraparty dispute points to easy passage if scheduled under suspension. [1]docs.house.gov — Committee vote record: H.R. 2804 (as amended) — 23–0 (May 20,…
• Senate passage: Moderate‑to‑high. Bipartisan co‑sponsors and GOP control help, but holds are possible over procurement flexibility unless scope is aligned with House ANS. [9]U.S. Senate Small Business Committee — Senate Small Business & Entrepreneurship…
• Conference risk: The task‑order split is the principal friction; absent resolution, the bill could wait for a small‑business package or ride a year‑end vehicle. [2]docs.house.gov — Amendment in the Nature of a Substitute to H.R. 2804 (Velázque…
• Timing note: Congress.gov’s actions page for H.R. 2804 may lag the committee repository; rely on the official markup record for the 23–0 report. [10]Congress.gov — H.R. 2804 — all actions page (Congress.gov)

Core sourcing

Primary documents and official references used in this analysis.

• H.R. 2804 text and status; Congress.gov. [11]Congress.gov — H.R. 2804 — bill text (Introduced)
• House Small Business Committee markup page and vote record (May 20, 2026). [6]docs.house.gov — House Small Business Committee — Markup of Various Measures (M…
• House ANS to H.R. 2804 (Velázquez) — excludes task/delivery orders. [2]docs.house.gov — Amendment in the Nature of a Substitute to H.R. 2804 (Velázque…
• Senate companion S. 2656 text and Senate press release on bipartisan introduction. [3]Congress.gov — S. 2656 (IS) — Protecting Small Business Competitions Act of 2025
• Stakeholder support: NVSBC letter; House Democratic SB press statements compiling coalition endorsements. [4]docs.house.gov — NVSBC letter supporting H.R. 2804 (filed for markup record)
• Leadership/control references: Speaker Mike Johnson official site; Senate.gov leadership listing; current Senate party split. [5]Speaker.gov — Office of the Speaker — Mike Johnson press page (2026 archive)