Analyses / Whip Count Analysis / 119 · SRES 450 Whip Count Analysis

119-SRES-450 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

119 · SRES 450 A resolution expressing support for the designation of the second Monday in October 2025 as "Indigenous Peoples' Day" to celebrate and honor Indigenous Peoples and their shared history and culture.

landscape Native Americans

Republicans control the Senate (53–47) with John Thune as Majority Leader; S.Res. 450 (Heinrich) sits in Indian Affairs, now chaired by Lisa Murkowski. Democrats/Independents are broadly supportive (15 Senate cosponsors on introduction), but GOP leadership alignment with the White House’s pro‑Columbus posture makes unanimous‑consent passage unlikely. In a shutdown‑driven calendar, any objection would force cloture on a motion to proceed—an improbable 60‑vote climb. Expected outcome: held at committee or blocked on UC; likelihood of passage this session: low. [1]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate: Party Division for the 119th Congress[2]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Lea…[3]Congress.gov — S.Res.450 — 119th Congress: All Information[4]The White House — Columbus Day, 2025 – Presidential Proclamation[5]Washington Post — John Thune's shutdown strategy: Wait for the Democrats to fold

Analyzed as
DC Insider
Published
16 Oct 2025
Updated
16 Oct 2025
Tags
whip-count · senate · simple-resolution
Unvetted
01 · Section

Breakdown: expected support and opposition

Scope: Simple Senate resolution; no House/President action required. It was introduced October 14, 2025 and referred to the Committee on Indian Affairs. GOP holds a 53–47 Senate majority. [3]Congress.gov — S.Res.450 — 119th Congress: All Information[1]Senate.gov — U.S. Senate: Party Division for the 119th Congress

Senate majority
53R
Senate minority
47D+I
Initial Senate cosponsors
15members
  • Democrats/Independents: Near‑unanimous support expected. The sponsor list is entirely Democratic/Independent at introduction, and the caucus has routinely backed Indigenous Peoples’ Day recognitions. Congress.gov lists 15 cosponsors at filing. [3]Congress.gov — S.Res.450 — 119th Congress: All Information
  • Republicans: Conference resistance likely. The White House formally re‑centered Columbus Day in its October 9 proclamation, reinforcing a counter‑mobilization among Italian‑American groups that oppose substituting Columbus Day; most GOP senators will not give UC. [4]The White House — Columbus Day, 2025 – Presidential Proclamation[6]Italian Sons and Daughters of America — Columbus Day, Monuments Represent Value…
  • States’ posture: At least 17 states and D.C. now recognize Indigenous Peoples’ Day in some form, with fresh GOP‑signed recognition in Montana alongside Columbus Day—helpful for a few target Republicans but not dispositive. [7]Axios — How Kansas City is marking Indigenous Peoples Day[8]Montana Free Press — Bill establishing Indigenous Peoples’ Day in Montana becom…
  • Committee gate: Referred to Senate Indian Affairs, now chaired by Lisa Murkowski (R‑AK); her agenda control is decisive for markup or scheduled consideration. [3]Congress.gov — S.Res.450 — 119th Congress: All Information[9]Wikipedia — United States Senate Committee on Indian Affairs (119th Congress)
02 · Section

Key legislators (pivotal swing votes)

Focus on Republicans from states with formal Indigenous observances, and on members with direct jurisdictional leverage.

  • Lisa Murkowski (R‑AK) — Chair, Senate Indian Affairs. Alaska codified Indigenous Peoples’ Day statewide; Murkowski’s long record on Native issues (e.g., MMIW work) suggests openness to a symbolic resolution, though she may avoid a floor fight that collides with the conference’s Columbus‑Day messaging. Net: possible yes if framed as additive, but more likely to keep it at committee absent UC. [9]Wikipedia — United States Senate Committee on Indian Affairs (119th Congress)[10]National Park Service — Alaska and Indigenous Peoples Day (Denali NPS article)[11]Office of Sen. Lisa Murkowski — Murkowski Recognizes MMIW Day of Awareness
  • Dan Sullivan (R‑AK) — Alaska context similar to Murkowski’s; less likely to break with leadership on a contested cultural resolution, but state backdrop keeps him in play if a no‑replacement, additive framing emerges. [10]National Park Service — Alaska and Indigenous Peoples Day (Denali NPS article)
  • Susan Collins (R‑ME) — Maine replaced Columbus Day with Indigenous Peoples’ Day in 2019; a plausible cross‑over on a non‑binding measure if UC is sought. [12]Web search · turn 5 #3
  • Mike Rounds (R‑SD) — South Dakota observes Native American Day (since 1990). Cultural alignment argues for tolerance; conference pressure argues against enabling a floor precedent near Columbus Day. Watch posture if language is clarified as “alongside” not “instead of.” [13]OfficeHolidays.com — Native Americans Day in South Dakota (state observance)
  • Steve Daines (R‑MT) — Montana now recognizes Indigenous Peoples’ Day alongside Columbus Day (2025 law). As a member of GOP leadership’s inner circle, less likely to aid a floor path, but state‑level change increases constituency cover. [8]Montana Free Press — Bill establishing Indigenous Peoples’ Day in Montana becom…
03 · Section

Leadership influence and procedural dynamics

Where this rises or falls: leadership priorities, UC tolerance inside the GOP, and the calendar.

  • Majority Leader John Thune controls floor time; he has emphasized preserving the filibuster and operates amid a shutdown fight that already consumes the calendar. Burning days on a symbolic resolution is unlikely. [2]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Lea…[5]Washington Post — John Thune's shutdown strategy: Wait for the Democrats to fold
  • Minority Leader Chuck Schumer can ask unanimous consent, but a single GOP objection blocks UC and forces the majority to decide whether to spend scarce time filing cloture on a motion to proceed (60‑vote threshold). [14]CRS via Congress.gov — Motions to Proceed to Consider Measures in the Senate
  • Committee leverage: With Murkowski as chair and a GOP majority on Indian Affairs, the panel can simply not schedule business on the measure; simple resolutions don’t need bicameral passage, but they still depend on committee discharge/UC or leader priority to reach the floor. [9]Wikipedia — United States Senate Committee on Indian Affairs (119th Congress)[3]Congress.gov — S.Res.450 — 119th Congress: All Information
  • Policy context: The administration’s Columbus Day proclamation draws a bright partisan line and encourages objections to any floor UC request on Indigenous Peoples’ Day within October. [4]The White House — Columbus Day, 2025 – Presidential Proclamation
  • Form matters: As a one‑house “sense of the Senate” measure, S.Res. 450 is non‑binding and would not create a federal holiday; it is an expression only. Substituting or adding a federal holiday would require a bill or joint resolution passed by both chambers and signed. [15]CRS via Congress.gov — “Sense of” Resolutions and Provisions[16]CRS via Congress.gov — Bills, Resolutions, Nominations, and Treaties: Character…
04 · Section

Assessment: likelihood of passage

Bottom line from a whip perspective.

  • Best‑case path: quiet UC after Columbus Day window closes and outside groups are less activated; requires Murkowski neutrality and no hard‑line objections. [9]Wikipedia — United States Senate Committee on Indian Affairs (119th Congress)
  • Most‑likely path: held at committee; no markup; no floor time while shutdown/appropriations dominate. [5]Washington Post — John Thune's shutdown strategy: Wait for the Democrats to fold
  • External pressure map: Pro‑IPD coalition (NCAI and Tribal leaders) will press for action; Italian‑American organizations will mobilize against any signal of replacing Columbus Day. [17]National Congress of American Indians — NCAI Supports House Resolution Recogniz…[6]Italian Sons and Daughters of America — Columbus Day, Monuments Represent Value…
Sources cited
  1. [1] U.S. Senate: Party Division for the 119th Congress Senate.gov
  2. [2] Thune Delivers First Remarks as Senate Majority Leader Office of Sen. John Thune
  3. [3] S.Res.450 — 119th Congress: All Information Congress.gov
  4. [4] Columbus Day, 2025 – Presidential Proclamation The White House
  5. [5] John Thune's shutdown strategy: Wait for the Democrats to fold Washington Post
  6. [6] Columbus Day, Monuments Represent Values Worth Fighting For Italian Sons and Daughters of America
  7. [7] How Kansas City is marking Indigenous Peoples Day Axios
  8. [8] Bill establishing Indigenous Peoples’ Day in Montana becomes law Montana Free Press
  9. [9] United States Senate Committee on Indian Affairs (119th Congress) Wikipedia
  10. [10] Alaska and Indigenous Peoples Day (Denali NPS article) National Park Service
  11. [11] Murkowski Recognizes MMIW Day of Awareness Office of Sen. Lisa Murkowski
  12. [12] Web search · turn 5 #3
  13. [13] Native Americans Day in South Dakota (state observance) OfficeHolidays.com
  14. [14] Motions to Proceed to Consider Measures in the Senate CRS via Congress.gov
  15. [15] “Sense of” Resolutions and Provisions CRS via Congress.gov
  16. [16] Bills, Resolutions, Nominations, and Treaties: Characteristics and Examples of Use CRS via Congress.gov
  17. [17] NCAI Supports House Resolution Recognizing Indigenous Peoples Day National Congress of American Indians

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