119-S-1135 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

Bill basics and institutional context

Measure

S. 1135 — Bonneville Shoreline Trail Feasibility Study (119th) [5]Congress.gov — Text - S.1135 (119th): Bonneville Shoreline Trail Feasibility St…

Sponsor / Cosponsor

Sen. John R. Curtis (R-UT) / Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) [1]Congress.gov — S.1135 — All Information (cosponsor; committee meeting)

Committee of Referral

Senate Energy & Natural Resources (ENR) [6]Congress.gov — S.1135 overview page

Recent action

National Parks Subcommittee legislative hearing held Dec. 9, 2025 (S.1135 on docket) [2]Congress.gov — Congressional Record Daily Digest (Dec. 8 listings for Dec. 9, 2…[7]Congress.gov — Committee Schedule for Dec. 9, 2025

House companion

H.R. 3451 (Rep. Mike Kennedy, R-UT-3) — referred to House Natural Resources (HNRC) [8]Congress.gov — H.R. 3451 overview (House companion)

Chamber control

GOP holds Senate (Thune Majority Leader) and House (Johnson Speaker) in the 119th Congress [9]U.S. Senate — Senate majority/minority leaders list (119th)[10]Associated Press — Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House Speaker as 119th conve…

Relevant gatekeepers

ENR Chair Mike Lee; National Parks Subcmte Chair Steve Daines / RM Angus King; HNRC Chair Bruce Westerman / RM Jared Huffman [11]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR: Heinrich & Lee announce 119th subcommittee ass…[3]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR Subcommittee on National Parks — jurisdiction a…[4]House Natural Resources Committee (R) — HNRC Republicans announce full committe…[12]Office of Rep. Jared Huffman — Huffman named Ranking Member of House Natural Re…

Jurisdiction is squarely with the ENR National Parks panel, which handles National Trails System legislation. The Dec. 9 hearing puts S.1135 in the queue for a quick subcommittee-to-full committee markup path. On the floor, the Senate commonly clears noncontroversial lands measures by unanimous consent after “hotlining,” while the House typically uses suspension of the rules for bipartisan natural-resources bills. [3]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR Subcommittee on National Parks — jurisdiction a…[13]Congressional Research Service — CRS: Senate Unanimous Consent Agreements (proc…[14]Congressional Research Service — CRS: Suspension of the Rules — House practice…

Breakdown: expected support/opposition by party and caucus

This is a low-cost study directive with strong in-state backing and bipartisan precedent in the National Parks Subcommittee docket; no organized opposition has surfaced in the record to date.

• Senate Republicans: Likely supportive. ENR Chair Mike Lee is a listed cosponsor; Subcommittee Chair Steve Daines set the hearing and routinely packages small parks/trails bills. Leadership (Thune) can hotline post-markup. [1]Congress.gov — S.1135 — All Information (cosponsor; committee meeting)[15]Office of Sen. Steve Daines — Daines chairs National Parks Subcommittee hearing…[9]U.S. Senate — Senate majority/minority leaders list (119th)
• Senate Democrats/Independents: Likely supportive. Subcommittee RM Angus King and ENR RM Martin Heinrich jointly announced subcommittee slates and regularly move bipartisan parks items; S.1135 was included on the Dec. 9 hearing list. [11]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR: Heinrich & Lee announce 119th subcommittee ass…[2]Congress.gov — Congressional Record Daily Digest (Dec. 8 listings for Dec. 9, 2…
• House Republicans: Favorable path in committee; HNRC is chaired by Bruce Westerman. The companion H.R. 3451 is sponsored by Utah’s Rep. Mike Kennedy and sits in HNRC. Floor strategy would be suspension of the rules. [4]House Natural Resources Committee (R) — HNRC Republicans announce full committe…[8]Congress.gov — H.R. 3451 overview (House companion)[16]Web search · turn 13 #2
• House Democrats: No evident organized opposition; HNRC Democrats under RM Jared Huffman have engaged actively on lands issues and typically support discrete study/designation bills; suspension requires bipartisan votes and is the routine vehicle for such measures. [12]Office of Rep. Jared Huffman — Huffman named Ranking Member of House Natural Re…[14]Congressional Research Service — CRS: Suspension of the Rules — House practice…
• Local/interest groups: Trust for Public Land publicly applauded introduction; Salt Lake County moved to fill trail gaps in Nov. 2025, indicating local momentum. No national opposition coalition identified. [17]Trust for Public Land — TPL applauds BST study bill; land protection press rele…[18]Salt Lake County — Salt Lake County action to improve BST connectivity (local s…
• Macro context risk: Broader GOP land-sale proposals have generated intra-party friction in 2025; they are separate from this study bill but could complicate packaging/timing if a larger public-lands bundle becomes a proxy fight. [19]Washington Post — Reporting on GOP public land sale plan and friction

Key legislators (pivots and leverage points)

• Mike Lee (R-UT): ENR Chair and S.1135 cosponsor — controls full committee agenda and can grease the skids; his support is dispositive at markup. [1]Congress.gov — S.1135 — All Information (cosponsor; committee meeting)
• Steve Daines (R-MT) / Angus King (I-ME): National Parks Subcommittee leaders — they program hearings and assemble bipartisan parks packages; Daines chaired the Dec. 9 session. [3]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR Subcommittee on National Parks — jurisdiction a…[15]Office of Sen. Steve Daines — Daines chairs National Parks Subcommittee hearing…
• John Thune (R-SD): Senate Majority Leader — can hotline and clear the bill by UC if there are no holds. [9]U.S. Senate — Senate majority/minority leaders list (119th)
• Bruce Westerman (R-AR) / Jared Huffman (D-CA): House Natural Resources leaders — gatekeepers for any markup or direct-to-suspension path in the House. [4]House Natural Resources Committee (R) — HNRC Republicans announce full committe…[12]Office of Rep. Jared Huffman — Huffman named Ranking Member of House Natural Re…
• Mike Kennedy (R-UT-3): House sponsor of H.R. 3451 — gives Utah delegation alignment across chambers. [8]Congress.gov — H.R. 3451 overview (House companion)
• Mike Johnson (R-LA): Speaker — narrow GOP majority but routine suspension windows on Mondays/Tuesdays can move noncontroversial resource bills quickly with bipartisan votes. [10]Associated Press — Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House Speaker as 119th conve…[14]Congressional Research Service — CRS: Suspension of the Rules — House practice…

Leadership stance and procedural dynamics

• Senate leadership: Thune is running the floor; Schumer leads the minority. With ENR leadership behind the bill and a clean hearing record, the standard path is ENR markup, hotline, UC passage. Any single-senator hold would force floor time. [9]U.S. Senate — Senate majority/minority leaders list (119th)[13]Congressional Research Service — CRS: Senate Unanimous Consent Agreements (proc…
• House leadership: Johnson’s speakership operates with a tight margin; for items like this, the path is suspension (2/3 threshold) after committee clearance or by consensus of committee leads. [10]Associated Press — Mike Johnson narrowly reelected House Speaker as 119th conve…[16]Web search · turn 13 #2
• Committee posture: ENR National Parks Subcommittee docket on Dec. 9 featured a suite of similar study/designation bills — a signal of bipartisan packaging. HNRC historically feeds many suspension bills to the floor. [2]Congress.gov — Congressional Record Daily Digest (Dec. 8 listings for Dec. 9, 2…[20]Web search · turn 13 #1

Assessment: whip count and odds

• Senate: Expect near-unanimous committee voice vote and clearance by unanimous consent if no holds. Probability of Senate passage once marked up: high. [11]U.S. Senate ENR Committee — ENR: Heinrich & Lee announce 119th subcommittee ass…[2]Congress.gov — Congressional Record Daily Digest (Dec. 8 listings for Dec. 9, 2…
• House: Expect consideration under suspension of the rules with bipartisan votes; probability of meeting 2/3 is high given issue scope and Utah delegation support. [8]Congress.gov — H.R. 3451 overview (House companion)[14]Congressional Research Service — CRS: Suspension of the Rules — House practice…
• Overall likelihood of enactment this Congress: High (confidence: high). Most credible path is: ENR markup in early 2026 → hotline/UC in Senate → House suspension calendar. Alternative path is inclusion in a bipartisan parks/lands package assembled by the National Parks Subcommittee. [15]Office of Sen. Steve Daines — Daines chairs National Parks Subcommittee hearing…