119-HR-2261 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

Breakdown: expected support and opposition

Bill status and text baseline: H.R. 2261 (Strengthening Oversight of DHS Intelligence Act) was ordered reported 22–0 on Sept. 3, 2025, and placed on the Union Calendar on Nov. 12, 2025. The text adds privacy/civil‑liberties guardrails and training requirements for DHS intel sharing. [1]Congress.gov — Actions - H.R.2261 - 119th Congress (2025-2026) | Congress.gov[2]Congress.gov — H.R.2261 overview (latest action: Union Calendar No. 326) | Cong…[5]Congress.gov — Text of H.R.2261 | Congress.gov

• House Democrats: Broad support; the Homeland Security Committee’s ranking member, Bennie Thompson, is a listed cosponsor. Expect near-unanimous caucus votes absent unrelated floor leverage. [6]Congress.gov — Cosponsors for H.R.2261 | Congress.gov
• House Republicans: Meaningful but not universal support. Signals include a 22–0 committee vote and a Republican cosponsor (Rep. Gabe Evans). Ideological splits: libertarian/civil‑liberties conservatives likely yes; some security hawks may resist if they view references to DHS’s civil‑rights/privacy offices as empowering entities the administration is downsizing. [1]Congress.gov — Actions - H.R.2261 - 119th Congress (2025-2026) | Congress.gov[6]Congress.gov — Cosponsors for H.R.2261 | Congress.gov[4]AP News — Homeland Security makes cuts to offices overseeing civil rights prote…[7]Reuters — U.S. homeland department targets oversight in government cuts
• Senate Republicans: Mixed. HSGAC is chaired by Rand Paul (R‑KY), whose civil‑liberties posture is favorable to the bill’s thrust, but broader conference skepticism toward DHS civil‑rights/privacy offices after recent DHS actions creates headwinds unless language is adjusted. [3]U.S. Senate HSGAC — HSGAC: Paul named Chair; subcommittee leaders for 119th[4]AP News — Homeland Security makes cuts to offices overseeing civil rights prote…
• Senate Democrats/Independents: Likely unified support; senior Democrats have publicly opposed cuts to DHS civil‑rights oversight and would welcome statutory guardrails. [8]U.S. Senate HSGAC (minority) — HSGAC Democrats: Peters/Durbin/Murray letter on…
• Interest groups: Civil‑liberties advocates have long pressed for stronger constraints on DHS I&A; recent reporting on data handling lapses sustains that pressure. By contrast, law‑enforcement intel associations warned that shrinking I&A creates “dangerous intelligence gaps,” a frame some GOP members may adopt to pare back mandates. [9]Brennan Center for Justice — Brennan Center: recent reforms won’t fix DHS intel…[10]WIRED — WIRED: DHS data hub exposed sensitive intel to unauthorized users[11]WIRED — WIRED: DHS kept Chicago police records beyond retention rules[12]Nextgov/FCW — Nextgov/FCW: Letter warned DHS intel cuts would create gaps

Sources for metrics: committee vote and calendar status from Congress.gov; cosponsors from Congress.gov; Senate party division from Senate.gov. [1]Congress.gov — Actions - H.R.2261 - 119th Congress (2025-2026) | Congress.gov[2]Congress.gov — H.R.2261 overview (latest action: Union Calendar No. 326) | Cong…[6]Congress.gov — Cosponsors for H.R.2261 | Congress.gov[13]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate Party Division, 119th Congress

Key legislators and pivotal votes

Focus on members with procedural leverage or cross‑pressure that could swing outcomes.

• House — Andrew Garbarino (R‑NY), Homeland Security Chair: Controls committee messaging and is publicly supportive; his chairmanship since July 2025 signals continuity for bipartisan homeland packages. Expect him to steer this either via suspension or a structured rule if leadership prefers. [14]House Committee on Homeland Security (majority) — Homeland Republicans applaud…[15]House Committee on Homeland Security (majority) — Chairman Garbarino opening st…
• House — Bennie Thompson (D‑MS), Ranking Member and cosponsor: Anchors Democratic support and can deliver caucus votes absent unrelated disputes. [6]Congress.gov — Cosponsors for H.R.2261 | Congress.gov
• House — Gabe Evans (R‑CO), cosponsor: Provides bipartisan cover; helpful for moving the bill on a suspension calendar if leadership chooses. [6]Congress.gov — Cosponsors for H.R.2261 | Congress.gov
• Senate — Rand Paul (R‑KY), HSGAC Chair: Gatekeeper for referral; civil‑liberties orientation aligns with the bill’s thrust, increasing chances of markup if language doesn’t conflict with GOP priorities. [3]U.S. Senate HSGAC — HSGAC: Paul named Chair; subcommittee leaders for 119th
• Senate — Gary Peters (D‑MI), HSGAC Ranking Member: Publicly pushing back on DHS’s curtailment of civil‑rights/oversight offices; likely to advocate for robust House language. [8]U.S. Senate HSGAC (minority) — HSGAC Democrats: Peters/Durbin/Murray letter on…
• Potential Senate hold risks: Security hawks (e.g., within SSCI/HSGAC) may object to perceived constraints on I&A, particularly given GOP narratives about DHS mission focus; that risk rises if the bill is hotlined for unanimous consent without adjustments. [16]Web search · turn 14 #6

Leadership stance and procedural dynamics

Institutional control narrows the tactical options.

• House control: Speaker Mike Johnson runs a slim GOP majority; Majority Leader Steve Scalise manages floor time. Leadership has tolerated bipartisan homeland packages when they don’t undercut marquee priorities. Expect floor action to slot around November funding/authorities work. [17]AP News — 119th Congress: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected Speaker[18]Office of Rep. Steve Scalise — Scalise re-elected House Majority Leader for 119…
• Scheduling levers: Given the 22–0 report and bipartisan cosponsorship, this is a plausible suspension‑calendar candidate (2/3 threshold) or a low‑controversy structured rule. Rules choice will track whip count and the week’s messaging needs. [1]Congress.gov — Actions - H.R.2261 - 119th Congress (2025-2026) | Congress.gov[6]Congress.gov — Cosponsors for H.R.2261 | Congress.gov
• Senate control: GOP majority under Leader John Thune, who has pledged to preserve the filibuster. For a narrow DHS process bill, the realistic paths are: unanimous consent, passage on the Hotline, or inclusion in a bipartisan HSGAC/IAA/DHS authorities package. [19]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune delivers first remarks as Senate Majority Lea…
• Committee of referral: Expect HSGAC (Paul/Peters). Paul’s chairmanship is pivotal; amendments trimming references to CRCL/Privacy Officer could be the price of a smooth Senate path given DHS’s current posture. [3]U.S. Senate HSGAC — HSGAC: Paul named Chair; subcommittee leaders for 119th[4]AP News — Homeland Security makes cuts to offices overseeing civil rights prote…
• Context at DHS: The department’s March actions to downsize civil‑rights/oversight offices sharpen the political split over codifying their role in intel workflows; this increases amendment pressure in the Senate and among some House conservatives. [4]AP News — Homeland Security makes cuts to offices overseeing civil rights prote…[7]Reuters — U.S. homeland department targets oversight in government cuts

Assessment: likelihood of passage

Bottom line from a votes‑and‑procedure lens.

• House floor: High likelihood. Committee reported 22–0; bipartisan cosponsorship; chair and ranking member alignment. Caveat: timing depends on floor bandwidth post‑CR and whether leadership opts for suspension (needs broad buy‑in) versus a rule (narrow partisan runway). [1]Congress.gov — Actions - H.R.2261 - 119th Congress (2025-2026) | Congress.gov[6]Congress.gov — Cosponsors for H.R.2261 | Congress.gov
• Senate: Moderate likelihood. Chair Paul’s civil‑liberties orientation is a tailwind, but GOP conference dynamics around DHS’s civil‑rights/privacy offices are a headwind. Most plausible route is folding the measure into a bipartisan HSGAC or intelligence/authorities package to avoid individual holds. [3]U.S. Senate HSGAC — HSGAC: Paul named Chair; subcommittee leaders for 119th[16]Web search · turn 14 #6[4]AP News — Homeland Security makes cuts to offices overseeing civil rights prote…
• Conference/Final: Moderate overall. If Senate trims or clarifies the role of CRCL/Privacy in training/approvals, a negotiated package could clear both chambers without floor drama. Conversely, a clean UC in the Senate is vulnerable to a single objection.

Sourcing notes

Key public positions, institutional roles, and bill status are verified below.

• Bill status/actions and Union Calendar entry from Congress.gov; committee vote 22–0 on Sept. 3 and calendar placement Nov. 12. [1]Congress.gov — Actions - H.R.2261 - 119th Congress (2025-2026) | Congress.gov[2]Congress.gov — H.R.2261 overview (latest action: Union Calendar No. 326) | Cong…
• Text and scope of amendments (privacy/civil‑liberties guardrails; training): Congress.gov bill text. [5]Congress.gov — Text of H.R.2261 | Congress.gov
• Cosponsors: Rep. Bennie Thompson (D‑MS) and Rep. Gabe Evans (R‑CO). [6]Congress.gov — Cosponsors for H.R.2261 | Congress.gov
• Homeland Security Committee leadership and chair’s posture: committee site and chair transition. [14]House Committee on Homeland Security (majority) — Homeland Republicans applaud…[15]House Committee on Homeland Security (majority) — Chairman Garbarino opening st…
• Senate control/leadership: official and leadership statements (Senate.gov party division; Thune remarks). [13]U.S. Senate — U.S. Senate Party Division, 119th Congress[19]Office of Sen. John Thune — Thune delivers first remarks as Senate Majority Lea…
• House leadership context: Speaker Mike Johnson’s reelection; Majority Leader Scalise’s role. [17]AP News — 119th Congress: Mike Johnson narrowly reelected Speaker[18]Office of Rep. Steve Scalise — Scalise re-elected House Majority Leader for 119…
• DHS oversight‑office downsizing and resulting partisan split: AP and Reuters. [4]AP News — Homeland Security makes cuts to offices overseeing civil rights prote…[7]Reuters — U.S. homeland department targets oversight in government cuts
• Civil‑liberties advocacy and intel‑sharing lapses shaping stakeholder pressure: Brennan Center analysis; WIRED reporting. [9]Brennan Center for Justice — Brennan Center: recent reforms won’t fix DHS intel…[10]WIRED — WIRED: DHS data hub exposed sensitive intel to unauthorized users
• Law‑enforcement intel community pushback on shrinking I&A (implications for amendments): Nextgov/FCW. [12]Nextgov/FCW — Nextgov/FCW: Letter warned DHS intel cuts would create gaps