119-HR-398 DC Insider Whip Count Analysis

Status snapshot and context

- Committee: Ordered reported by unanimous consent (no recorded opposition) at the March 5, 2026 House Natural Resources full committee markup. [1]docs.house.gov — COMMITTEE ON NATURAL RESOURCES — ACTION REPORT (Mar. 5, 2026) - Reporting: Filed May 20, 2026 as H. Rept. 119-655, setting up floor eligibility; House frequently moves resource/lands items on suspension when bipartisan and non‑controversial. [2]Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative — Legislation feed (entries for May 2… - Policy: Mirrors prior Congress’s House‑passed geothermal cost‑recovery bill; authorizes DOI/BLM to recover administrative/inspection costs for geothermal leasing through September 30, 2032, with hardship and “promote use” reductions and appropriation‑limited use of collections. [3]Congress.gov — Congress.gov — H.R. 7422 (118th): All Information (House passage… - Institutional landscape: Republicans hold both chambers; Speaker Mike Johnson controls House floor sequencing, and Sen. John Thune serves as Senate Majority Leader. [4]radiotv.house.gov

Breakdown: expected support and opposition

• House Democrats: Sponsor is Rep. Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez; Democrats on Natural Resources did not object at markup, and outside allies (e.g., The Wilderness Society) endorsed the bill’s user‑pay framework — expect near‑unified caucus support. [1]docs.house.gov — COMMITTEE ON NATURAL RESOURCES — ACTION REPORT (Mar. 5, 2026)
• House Republicans: Committee cleared the bill by UC, a signal leadership is comfortable moving it as part of the broader geothermal package; GOP members from Western states and Natural Resources leadership are positioned to support. Likely exceptions would be a handful of anti‑fee conservatives if the bill reaches the floor outside a package. [1]docs.house.gov — COMMITTEE ON NATURAL RESOURCES — ACTION REPORT (Mar. 5, 2026)
• Senate Democrats/Independents: Generally favorable to geothermal development; ENR Ranking Member Martin Heinrich and caucus Westerners (e.g., Cortez Masto, Hickenlooper) are natural yeses. [5]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — Senate ENR Committee — Me…
• Senate Republicans: GOP controls the chamber and ENR; many Western Rs (Murkowski, Barrasso, Daines) are receptive to geothermal, but some anti‑fee or small‑government members could seek caps/guardrails or hold up UC. Net lean: modestly favorable if packaged and cleared by ENR Chair Mike Lee. [5]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — Senate ENR Committee — Me…
• Interest groups and agencies: The Wilderness Society and Geothermal Rising submitted support; BLM has highlighted efforts to accelerate geothermal — all of which lowers political risk around a narrow user‑fee authority. [6]docs.house.gov — The Wilderness Society letter to EMR Subcommittee (Dec. 16, 20…

Key legislators and swing dynamics

• House gatekeepers: Chair Bruce Westerman (Natural Resources) advanced H.R. 398 on UC — a green light for leadership to slot it on the floor, likely alongside other geothermal items. Ranking Member Jared Huffman’s side did not force votes on this title. [1]docs.house.gov — COMMITTEE ON NATURAL RESOURCES — ACTION REPORT (Mar. 5, 2026)
• Bill sponsor: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez — expect Democratic messaging credit, but the committee’s bipartisan handling suggests the bill can ride a broader package to avoid intra‑GOP optics issues. [7]Congress.gov — Congress.gov — H.R. 398 (119th): Bill page, CRS summary, actions
• Senate committee: ENR Chair Mike Lee (R‑UT) and Ranking Member Martin Heinrich (D‑NM). Lee’s chairmanship means any Senate companion or House‑passed text will route through his markup; watch for language on fee caps, hardship reductions, and use of offsetting collections. [5]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — Senate ENR Committee — Me…
• Western‑state validators: Sen. Lisa Murkowski (AK) and other ENR Republicans plus Democrats like Sen. John Hickenlooper have recent geothermal pushes — useful coalition cover for unanimous‑consent clearance. [5]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — Senate ENR Committee — Me…
• Floor leaders: Speaker Mike Johnson decides whether to use the Suspension Calendar; in the Senate, Majority Leader John Thune can hotline a non‑controversial ENR bill, but any single hold forces time‑consuming cloture. [8]Speaker of the House — Speaker.gov — 2026 press room (confirms Speaker Mike Joh…

Leadership influence and procedural path

- House: After committee reporting on May 20, 2026, this fits the profile for Suspension of the Rules (two‑thirds threshold, no amendments) given prior bipartisan geothermal action and a clean committee record. Precedent: the 118th‑Congress predecessor (H.R. 7422) passed the House by voice under suspension. [2]Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative — Legislation feed (entries for May 2…

- Senate: GOP‑run ENR crafts the vehicle. If ENR reports a consensus text, leaders can attempt unanimous consent on the floor; otherwise, the bill faces the standard 60‑vote cloture threshold for stand‑alone consideration in a crowded pre‑election calendar. Leadership roles and party control are confirmed by official Senate sources. [5]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — Senate ENR Committee — Me…

Assessment: Likelihood of passage

• House passage: High. Bipartisan committee UC, report filed, and strong outside support indicate a smooth path on Suspension or as part of a bipartisan geothermal bloc. [1]docs.house.gov — COMMITTEE ON NATURAL RESOURCES — ACTION REPORT (Mar. 5, 2026)
• Senate passage: Moderate. ENR Chair Lee’s markup posture and the availability of UC will decide the lift; Western‑state buy‑in suggests viability if modest guardrails are included. [5]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — Senate ENR Committee — Me…
• Overall enactment this Congress: Moderate. Alignment with user‑pay principles, agency capacity needs, and supportive stakeholders helps; schedule/hotline management and absence of holds are the swing variables. BLM’s push to accelerate geothermal bolsters the case for action. [9]Bureau of Land Management — BLM press release: Steps to accelerate geothermal e…

What to watch / whip notes

1. Packaging: Track whether H.R. 398 is grouped with H.R. 5617/5631/5638 and similar items — bundling increases Senate UC odds. [1]docs.house.gov — COMMITTEE ON NATURAL RESOURCES — ACTION REPORT (Mar. 5, 2026)
2. Senate text: Look for ENR to retain hardship/“promote use” reductions and the appropriations‑limited use of collections; caps or reporting could be added to address fee‑level concerns. [7]Congress.gov — Congress.gov — H.R. 398 (119th): Bill page, CRS summary, actions
3. Stakeholder cover: Keep citing TWS/Geothermal Rising support letters in member outreach; they defuse “new fees” attacks by framing this as program capacity and parity with oil/gas, wind, and solar. [6]docs.house.gov — The Wilderness Society letter to EMR Subcommittee (Dec. 16, 20…
4. Calendar: With a narrow House GOP majority and a Senate GOP majority, leadership time is tight; aim for non‑controversial clearance before the late‑summer slowdown. [4]radiotv.house.gov

Key sourcing

Primary, verifiable sources used for positions, process, and context:

• House Natural Resources Committee action report (Mar 5, 2026) confirming H.R. 398 was ordered favorably reported by UC. [1]docs.house.gov — COMMITTEE ON NATURAL RESOURCES — ACTION REPORT (Mar. 5, 2026)
• Committee markup notice and docket. [10]docs.house.gov — House Natural Resources — Markup Notice (Mar. 2, 2026)
• Congress.gov bill page and CRS summary for H.R. 398 (scope, sunset to Sept. 30, 2032; no CBO score posted). [7]Congress.gov — Congress.gov — H.R. 398 (119th): Bill page, CRS summary, actions
• H. Rept. 119‑655 listing (report filed May 20, 2026). [2]Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative — Legislation feed (entries for May 2…
• Prior‑Congress precedent: H.R. 7422 (118th) passed House under suspension. [3]Congress.gov — Congress.gov — H.R. 7422 (118th): All Information (House passage…
• Senate ENR leadership/membership (Chair Mike Lee; RM Heinrich). [5]U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources — Senate ENR Committee — Me…
• Leadership and chamber control confirmations (Speaker Johnson; Senate Majority Leader Thune; GOP Senate majority). [8]Speaker of the House — Speaker.gov — 2026 press room (confirms Speaker Mike Joh…
• Stakeholder/agency context on geothermal: The Wilderness Society letter; Geothermal Rising submission; BLM press release on accelerating geothermal. [6]docs.house.gov — The Wilderness Society letter to EMR Subcommittee (Dec. 16, 20…